Despite recent market jitters and bearish sentiments stemming from a significant drop, I remain bullish on Bitcoin, particularly in a higher time frame analysis. The recent downturn may seem daunting, but it's crucial to recognize that such fluctuations are often part of Bitcoin's volatile nature, especially in the midst of its ongoing bull market trajectory and the upcoming Halving.
In this analysis, I've employed the Fixed Range Volume Profile tool, which is readily available on TradingView for free. By pulling the fixed range volume profile from the inception of the triangle formation to the current price, several key insights have emerged.
Firstly, it's noteworthy that price found robust support at the Value Area Low (VaL) of $64,550 at the start of April. Subsequently, we witnessed a temporary rejection from the Value Area High (VAH) of $72,440 on Monday, April 8th. As for now, price is hovering below the previous day's open of $69,360.
A possible scenario I'm considering involves a potential retracement towards the 0.5 Fibonacci level and the base of the triangle. Notably, at this juncture, we encounter another significant level of confluence: the Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP). The red line within the FRVP denotes the Point of Control (POC), situated within the $67,000-$66,800 range. This area holds the potential to serve as a support zone.
Maintaining an overarching bullish sentiment, it's essential to acknowledge the imminent halving event and the ensuing price fluctuations it may entail. As long as we remain entrenched within the confines of the triangle without flipping it as resistance, alongside holding the POC, red line, and the base of the triangle as support, we can anticipate higher price trajectories.
However, it's prudent to exercise caution and monitor closely the $68,000 area, which coincides with the monthly Volume Weighted Average Price (MVWAP).
In terms of actionable trading strategies, I'm eyeing long positions for shorter time frames (STF) around $68,450 as a POC of the last drop/$67,000 area at the base of the triangle in case of another drop, with a cautious approach after reclaiming. For higher time frame (HTF) longs, I'm considering entry at $65,550 as a Naked POC made on April 4th. Conversely, shorts could be considered for shorter time frames (STF) at the $71,300-$71,700 area and for higher time frames (HTF) at the all-time high if signs of weakness manifest as a failed action.
*STF trades should be monitored closely, taking profit within the first reasonable sign of weakness!
In conclusion, while short-term fluctuations may rattle market participants, a broader perspective reveals a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, underscored by technical analyses and market dynamics.
**Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice!
Comment:
After the triangle fakeout on April 8th, Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, reaching a low of $59,660. Despite this drop, the macro perspective remains bullish. Currently, BTC is trading around the $64,000 area, with a range low of $60,000 and a range high near $70,000.
Since the last update, the price moved to the Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP) Point of Control (POC) and faced rejection, finding support at the FRVP's Value Area Low (VAL). Later, BTC lost this support, flipping it into resistance.
However, Bitcoin bounced strongly from the range low with a short squeeze, reaching the POC again as expected. Congratulations to those who took the longs and shorts at the levels mentioned in the previous idea—they're likely in good profits now.
Looking ahead, there are signs of temporary weakness in the stock market, which often correlates with BTC. Despite this, I suggest considering long positions at 61,700, a Monthly VAL and Weekly Naked POC level, with caution and only if there's a strong bounce. If this level flips to resistance, a drop to the 51,500 area might be on the horizon.
For long-term time-frame (LTF) shorts, I'd watch 69,000, the Value Area High (VAH) of the FRVP, as a level to monitor for signs of weakness. If the price shows strength, new all-time highs could be in sight.
For short-term time-frame (STF) shorts, 65,250 (as a Weakly Vwap) could be a key level to consider for potential weakness.
*STF trades should be monitored, and profits should be taken at the first sign of weakness.
Exercise patience, and stay tuned for more updates and actionable trading ideas!
Since the last update, the price moved to the Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP) Point of Control (POC) and faced rejection, finding support at the FRVP's Value Area Low (VAL). Later, BTC lost this support, flipping it into resistance.
However, Bitcoin bounced strongly from the range low with a short squeeze, reaching the POC again as expected. Congratulations to those who took the longs and shorts at the levels mentioned in the previous idea—they're likely in good profits now.
Looking ahead, there are signs of temporary weakness in the stock market, which often correlates with BTC. Despite this, I suggest considering long positions at 61,700, a Monthly VAL and Weekly Naked POC level, with caution and only if there's a strong bounce. If this level flips to resistance, a drop to the 51,500 area might be on the horizon.
For long-term time-frame (LTF) shorts, I'd watch 69,000, the Value Area High (VAH) of the FRVP, as a level to monitor for signs of weakness. If the price shows strength, new all-time highs could be in sight.
For short-term time-frame (STF) shorts, 65,250 (as a Weakly Vwap) could be a key level to consider for potential weakness.
*STF trades should be monitored, and profits should be taken at the first sign of weakness.
Exercise patience, and stay tuned for more updates and actionable trading ideas!
Currently trading around $64,000,with the range low at $58,700,we've seen attempts to reclaim the Value Area Low (VAL) from the Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP) I utilize on TradingView.
Recent fundamental events,such as the Iran attack on Israel,underscore the importance of considering external factors in our analysis.While these events can influence the charts,a cool-off in price action is evident.
In the macro analysis,a bullish divergence is observed in the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), suggesting potential upside momentum.However,confirmation of the reclaim at the VAL of FRVP at $64,050 is essential to consider further bullish scenarios.
On the other hand,losing the range low $58.700 and flipping it as resistance could signal further downside,with targets as low as $50,000,especially in the event of a black swan occurrence.
I'm very proud of those who took the short position from my last idea at $71,300!
Actionable trades include shorts from $67,136 in smaller time frames (STF),focusing on the previous day's open and the FRVP Point of Control (POC)see red Line if weakness persists.Long positions at $61,200 as the previous day's Value Area Low (pdVAL) and $62,000 as the previous day's Point of Control (pdPOC) with caution and confirmation first from a strong bounce,present opportunities.HTF longs from range low $58,700 if fake out happens.
*STF trades should be monitored closely,taking profits within the first reasonable sign of weakness!
*Exercise patience and wait for levels to be tested,reacting accordingly.Despite prevailing bearish sentiments,maintaining the range low as support favors long trades.Be mindful of potential short squeezes amidst widespread bearish sentiment.
Stay tuned for more updates and actionable trading ideas!