Profit while BTC is -40%? This is the strategy: +44% on spot
Plenty of traders are struggling to trade the choppy ranging market of the past couple of months. Especially as it comes after an "up only!!!" period where making a mistake was an exception and (at least some) success the rule. Wicks and stops hunting are not making it easier. We always speak about preparing the strategy for the next leg, but traders still don't use data and help. This is an example of how you do it and create a strategy where when Bitcoin is -40% down, you're comfortably +44% in profit.
WILL POST EVERY POSITION OPEN/CLOSE TIME AND RETURN OVER 6 MONTHS BELOW
The strategy goals:
Any strategy you're running needs to be profitable in different market conditions. It's fine if it particularly successful under particular ones, but it should not be a dud in the long run. So we're going to pose quite a challenge for ourselves:
1. Winning strategy on spot in the past 3 months (March to June) while Bitcoin is down 40%
2. Beat buy and hold over 6 months - we need to have a sufficient sample of trades. The majority of gains on Bitcoin happened before the start of the year so we are looking at Dec-Jun
3. Make more than 100% during a year. Obviously this will be a range based strategy so trading it in a parabolic bull market is not the wisest. However we need to see longer term success to validate the idea.
The strategy:
We'll be using one on of the simplest indicators in range trading - Bollinger Bands. We do need to make the classic set up more responsive by reducing the periods and standard deviation. On account of this we will include ATR (Average True Range) which is a great measure of volatility. If it's not present we don't want to be exposed. You want the opposite in parabolic markets.
On the 1 hour chart we:
- Will open a position when price is crossing up BB_LOWER (period: 15, standard deviation: 1) AND ATR (14) is up by 9% in last day
- Will close a position when price is crossing down BB_UPPER (period: 15, standard deviation: 1) AND ATR(14) is down by 1% in last hour
No stop loss or take profit - the strategy rules are respected 100% of the time. The reduced period and standard deviation on the Bollinger Bands match what you see on the chart here.
The results:
The marriage between Bollinger Bands and ATR is working quite well in ranging markets. Bollinger Bands signal low/high prices while ATR gives you a hint of volatility. It wins about 56% of positions, but the profits are on average 2:1 to the loss which is ideal.
In fact this strategy:
1. Convincingly beat the -40% market in the past 3 months, with profits of +44%
2. Made 86% in the past 6 months, while just holding Bitcoin would have brought you 39.9%
3. Profited +136.5% over the year. Again we do recommend adjusting your strategy to the conditions, but this gives us a large enough sample of trades to validate the idea.
Even max drawdown over the last 3 months was only 9%. That and profits is a wonderful position to be in in a market that's ruled by fear.
The positions (last 6 months):
22/06/2021 16:00
22/06/2021 23:00
7 hours
OP 31,708
+2.76%
Still in position
21/06/2021 14:00
22/06/2021 05:00
15 hours
OP 33,152
CP 32,911
-0.728%
19/06/2021 00:00
19/06/2021 17:00
17 hours
OP 35,820
CP 35,889
+0.192%
08/06/2021 08:00
09/06/2021 01:00
17 hours
OP 32,967
CP 32,886
-0.244%
06/06/2021 00:00
06/06/2021 03:00
3 hours
OP 35,516
CP 36,130
+1.73%
04/06/2021 13:00
05/06/2021 04:00
15 hours
OP 36,880
CP 37,410
+1.44%
01/06/2021 14:00
02/06/2021 20:00
1 day
OP 37,037
CP 37,885
+2.29%
28/05/2021 13:00
30/05/2021 21:00
2 days
OP 36,590
CP 36,050
-1.48%
23/05/2021 20:00
24/05/2021 17:00
21 hours
OP 33,047
CP 37,357
+13%
19/05/2021 15:00
21/05/2021 02:00
1 day
OP 37,502
CP 41,428
+10.5%
16/05/2021 02:00
18/05/2021 04:00
2 days
OP 48,060
CP 44,775
-6.84%
13/05/2021 06:00
14/05/2021 13:00
1 day
OP 50,884
CP 50,311
-1.13%
10/05/2021 23:00
11/05/2021 11:00
12 hours
OP 56,230
CP 55,842
-0.69%
09/05/2021 06:00
10/05/2021 07:00
1 day
OP 58,447
CP 58,834
+0.663%
03/05/2021 18:00
05/05/2021 20:00
2 days
OP 57,959
CP 57,136
-1.42%
29/04/2021 07:00
30/04/2021 11:00
1 day
OP 54,373
CP 54,165
-0.383%
26/04/2021 00:00
26/04/2021 09:00
9 hours
OP 49,067
CP 52,584
+7.17%
23/04/2021 11:00
23/04/2021 22:00
11 hours
OP 49,457
CP 50,298
+1.7%
18/04/2021 13:00
19/04/2021 06:00
17 hours
OP 54,947
CP 56,500
+2.83%
14/04/2021 17:00
16/04/2021 00:00
1 day
OP 63,485
CP 63,159
-0.514%
11/04/2021 00:00
14/04/2021 13:00
4 days
OP 59,769
CP 63,871
+6.86%
07/04/2021 06:00
08/04/2021 10:00
1 day
OP 58,286
CP 56,676
-2.76%
04/04/2021 03:00
05/04/2021 21:00
2 days
OP 57,363
CP 58,773
+2.46%
31/03/2021 13:00
01/04/2021 02:00
13 hours
OP 58,160
CP 59,140
+1.68%
30/03/2021 05:00
30/03/2021 15:00
10 hours
OP 57,567
CP 58,866
+2.26%
25/03/2021 05:00
26/03/2021 03:00
22 hours
OP 52,252
CP 51,697
-1.06%
21/03/2021 14:00
23/03/2021 19:00
2 days
OP 57,022
CP 55,365
-2.91%
15/03/2021 14:00
16/03/2021 17:00
1 day
OP 56,856
CP 55,658
-2.11%
11/03/2021 11:00
12/03/2021 20:00
1 day
OP 55,531
CP 56,942
+2.54%
08/03/2021 11:00
09/03/2021 08:00
21 hours
OP 50,061
CP 53,547
+6.96%
04/03/2021 01:00
06/03/2021 00:00
2 days
OP 50,894
CP 48,747
-4.22%
28/02/2021 20:00
01/03/2021 06:00
10 hours
OP 44,403
CP 46,200
+4.05%
27/02/2021 00:00
27/02/2021 03:00
3 hours
OP 46,277
CP 47,375
+2.37%
26/02/2021 04:00
26/02/2021 19:00
15 hours
OP 47,331
CP 47,317
-0.0301%
21/02/2021 00:00
24/02/2021 07:00
3 days
OP 55,841
CP 50,109
-10.3%
20/02/2021 11:00
20/02/2021 20:00
9 hours
OP 55,895
CP 56,975
+1.93%
16/02/2021 19:00
18/02/2021 02:00
1 day
OP 48,617
CP 52,132
+7.23%
15/02/2021 01:00
16/02/2021 07:00
1 day
OP 48,764
CP 49,021
+0.527%
04/02/2021 13:00
13/02/2021 07:00
9 days
OP 37,619
CP 47,728
+26.9%
01/02/2021 17:00
03/02/2021 00:00
1 day
OP 33,461
CP 35,473
+6.01%
27/01/2021 20:00
30/01/2021 16:00
3 days
OP 30,732
CP 34,210
+11.3%
26/01/2021 02:00
26/01/2021 21:00
19 hours
OP 32,754
CP 31,987
-2.34%
20/01/2021 14:00
22/01/2021 13:00
2 days
OP 34,959
CP 31,550
-9.75%
15/01/2021 22:00
17/01/2021 19:00
2 days
OP 36,234
CP 35,677
-1.54%
10/01/2021 23:00
12/01/2021 09:00
1 day
OP 38,430
CP 35,773
-6.91%
08/01/2021 22:00
09/01/2021 16:00
18 hours
OP 40,076
CP 40,525
+1.12%
08/01/2021 04:00
08/01/2021 18:00
14 hours
OP 38,347
CP 41,009
+6.94%
03/01/2021 21:00
05/01/2021 16:00
2 days
OP 33,726
CP 32,100
-4.82%
27/12/2020 19:00
28/12/2020 16:00
21 hours
OP 27,063
CP 26,916
-0.541%
24/12/2020 06:00
24/12/2020 10:00
4 hours
OP 23,050
CP 23,348
+1.29%
WILL POST EVERY POSITION OPEN/CLOSE TIME AND RETURN OVER 6 MONTHS BELOW
The strategy goals:
Any strategy you're running needs to be profitable in different market conditions. It's fine if it particularly successful under particular ones, but it should not be a dud in the long run. So we're going to pose quite a challenge for ourselves:
1. Winning strategy on spot in the past 3 months (March to June) while Bitcoin is down 40%
2. Beat buy and hold over 6 months - we need to have a sufficient sample of trades. The majority of gains on Bitcoin happened before the start of the year so we are looking at Dec-Jun
3. Make more than 100% during a year. Obviously this will be a range based strategy so trading it in a parabolic bull market is not the wisest. However we need to see longer term success to validate the idea.
The strategy:
We'll be using one on of the simplest indicators in range trading - Bollinger Bands. We do need to make the classic set up more responsive by reducing the periods and standard deviation. On account of this we will include ATR (Average True Range) which is a great measure of volatility. If it's not present we don't want to be exposed. You want the opposite in parabolic markets.
On the 1 hour chart we:
- Will open a position when price is crossing up BB_LOWER (period: 15, standard deviation: 1) AND ATR (14) is up by 9% in last day
- Will close a position when price is crossing down BB_UPPER (period: 15, standard deviation: 1) AND ATR(14) is down by 1% in last hour
No stop loss or take profit - the strategy rules are respected 100% of the time. The reduced period and standard deviation on the Bollinger Bands match what you see on the chart here.
The results:
The marriage between Bollinger Bands and ATR is working quite well in ranging markets. Bollinger Bands signal low/high prices while ATR gives you a hint of volatility. It wins about 56% of positions, but the profits are on average 2:1 to the loss which is ideal.
In fact this strategy:
1. Convincingly beat the -40% market in the past 3 months, with profits of +44%
2. Made 86% in the past 6 months, while just holding Bitcoin would have brought you 39.9%
3. Profited +136.5% over the year. Again we do recommend adjusting your strategy to the conditions, but this gives us a large enough sample of trades to validate the idea.
Even max drawdown over the last 3 months was only 9%. That and profits is a wonderful position to be in in a market that's ruled by fear.
The positions (last 6 months):
22/06/2021 16:00
22/06/2021 23:00
7 hours
OP 31,708
+2.76%
Still in position
21/06/2021 14:00
22/06/2021 05:00
15 hours
OP 33,152
CP 32,911
-0.728%
19/06/2021 00:00
19/06/2021 17:00
17 hours
OP 35,820
CP 35,889
+0.192%
08/06/2021 08:00
09/06/2021 01:00
17 hours
OP 32,967
CP 32,886
-0.244%
06/06/2021 00:00
06/06/2021 03:00
3 hours
OP 35,516
CP 36,130
+1.73%
04/06/2021 13:00
05/06/2021 04:00
15 hours
OP 36,880
CP 37,410
+1.44%
01/06/2021 14:00
02/06/2021 20:00
1 day
OP 37,037
CP 37,885
+2.29%
28/05/2021 13:00
30/05/2021 21:00
2 days
OP 36,590
CP 36,050
-1.48%
23/05/2021 20:00
24/05/2021 17:00
21 hours
OP 33,047
CP 37,357
+13%
19/05/2021 15:00
21/05/2021 02:00
1 day
OP 37,502
CP 41,428
+10.5%
16/05/2021 02:00
18/05/2021 04:00
2 days
OP 48,060
CP 44,775
-6.84%
13/05/2021 06:00
14/05/2021 13:00
1 day
OP 50,884
CP 50,311
-1.13%
10/05/2021 23:00
11/05/2021 11:00
12 hours
OP 56,230
CP 55,842
-0.69%
09/05/2021 06:00
10/05/2021 07:00
1 day
OP 58,447
CP 58,834
+0.663%
03/05/2021 18:00
05/05/2021 20:00
2 days
OP 57,959
CP 57,136
-1.42%
29/04/2021 07:00
30/04/2021 11:00
1 day
OP 54,373
CP 54,165
-0.383%
26/04/2021 00:00
26/04/2021 09:00
9 hours
OP 49,067
CP 52,584
+7.17%
23/04/2021 11:00
23/04/2021 22:00
11 hours
OP 49,457
CP 50,298
+1.7%
18/04/2021 13:00
19/04/2021 06:00
17 hours
OP 54,947
CP 56,500
+2.83%
14/04/2021 17:00
16/04/2021 00:00
1 day
OP 63,485
CP 63,159
-0.514%
11/04/2021 00:00
14/04/2021 13:00
4 days
OP 59,769
CP 63,871
+6.86%
07/04/2021 06:00
08/04/2021 10:00
1 day
OP 58,286
CP 56,676
-2.76%
04/04/2021 03:00
05/04/2021 21:00
2 days
OP 57,363
CP 58,773
+2.46%
31/03/2021 13:00
01/04/2021 02:00
13 hours
OP 58,160
CP 59,140
+1.68%
30/03/2021 05:00
30/03/2021 15:00
10 hours
OP 57,567
CP 58,866
+2.26%
25/03/2021 05:00
26/03/2021 03:00
22 hours
OP 52,252
CP 51,697
-1.06%
21/03/2021 14:00
23/03/2021 19:00
2 days
OP 57,022
CP 55,365
-2.91%
15/03/2021 14:00
16/03/2021 17:00
1 day
OP 56,856
CP 55,658
-2.11%
11/03/2021 11:00
12/03/2021 20:00
1 day
OP 55,531
CP 56,942
+2.54%
08/03/2021 11:00
09/03/2021 08:00
21 hours
OP 50,061
CP 53,547
+6.96%
04/03/2021 01:00
06/03/2021 00:00
2 days
OP 50,894
CP 48,747
-4.22%
28/02/2021 20:00
01/03/2021 06:00
10 hours
OP 44,403
CP 46,200
+4.05%
27/02/2021 00:00
27/02/2021 03:00
3 hours
OP 46,277
CP 47,375
+2.37%
26/02/2021 04:00
26/02/2021 19:00
15 hours
OP 47,331
CP 47,317
-0.0301%
21/02/2021 00:00
24/02/2021 07:00
3 days
OP 55,841
CP 50,109
-10.3%
20/02/2021 11:00
20/02/2021 20:00
9 hours
OP 55,895
CP 56,975
+1.93%
16/02/2021 19:00
18/02/2021 02:00
1 day
OP 48,617
CP 52,132
+7.23%
15/02/2021 01:00
16/02/2021 07:00
1 day
OP 48,764
CP 49,021
+0.527%
04/02/2021 13:00
13/02/2021 07:00
9 days
OP 37,619
CP 47,728
+26.9%
01/02/2021 17:00
03/02/2021 00:00
1 day
OP 33,461
CP 35,473
+6.01%
27/01/2021 20:00
30/01/2021 16:00
3 days
OP 30,732
CP 34,210
+11.3%
26/01/2021 02:00
26/01/2021 21:00
19 hours
OP 32,754
CP 31,987
-2.34%
20/01/2021 14:00
22/01/2021 13:00
2 days
OP 34,959
CP 31,550
-9.75%
15/01/2021 22:00
17/01/2021 19:00
2 days
OP 36,234
CP 35,677
-1.54%
10/01/2021 23:00
12/01/2021 09:00
1 day
OP 38,430
CP 35,773
-6.91%
08/01/2021 22:00
09/01/2021 16:00
18 hours
OP 40,076
CP 40,525
+1.12%
08/01/2021 04:00
08/01/2021 18:00
14 hours
OP 38,347
CP 41,009
+6.94%
03/01/2021 21:00
05/01/2021 16:00
2 days
OP 33,726
CP 32,100
-4.82%
27/12/2020 19:00
28/12/2020 16:00
21 hours
OP 27,063
CP 26,916
-0.541%
24/12/2020 06:00
24/12/2020 10:00
4 hours
OP 23,050
CP 23,348
+1.29%
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cleo.finance
Test trading strategies on crypto, stocks, indices, forex with decades of 1-min data.
cleo.finance
Test trading strategies on crypto, stocks, indices, forex with decades of 1-min data.