BTC to $60k maybe even $50k? More pullback likely in the cards
Things were looking so good to, was surprised to see this trendline breach. This isnt catastrophic but also its looking like we could fall a ways before we find new footing to start rising again. Well I do believe we are more likely to hodl at $60kish but still vigilant for the possibility of $50kish.
Here in the zoomed out chart, you can see why I have been calling $79k/80k top for this run and we havent seen it yet, I do believe this is just a slow down to that goal and that is fine because we were going to get there way too quick on our prior paths.
I have seen many times a fast wick break a trend line and it can be ignored, as an anomaly, but this isnt looking like too fast of a wick at the moment and so this break in the trend looks to be notable.
The global order books are in decline and traders have been pulling their orders giving up hope on capturing gains on their prior holdings, likely liquidating, much like myself. The drop in books isnt so dramatic to support these lower lines I have drawn though so maybe I have missed some other potential support, futures order books still show a lot of traders thinking BTC $72k is around the corner, though they too could have been caught off guard in bulk.
Lets also talk about BTC dominance for a second. Yes anything you can quantify can be charted and you can find probabilities to help you determine direction. BTC Dominance is how much of the crypto market is composed of BTC's market cap, it has had hard support at 40% for so many years and we arent even close to that at the moment but we are reaching an upper band of a multi-year descent channel that will make us decide between maintaining a 5 year descending trend or an 18 month ascending trend, its had that strong ascending support for the last 18 months. When BTC goes up and its market cap outpaces all the other alts, it will increase it dominance, this is most times when BTC rises because its market cap is so much bigger than the rest it doesnt take much to add so many billions to its market cap. Another common way that BTC dominance rises is when the whole market crashes but everything crashes much harder than BTC like BTC drops 5-7% but alts drop 15%-20% for example. This does seem to be lessing over the years but still happens for sure. We did see in the last major crash that lead to our last crypto winter, that Everything crashed so hard that BTC lost dominance while alts also crashed and burned. The first time BTC had a major dominance crash it crashed from 90% to 40% dominance and that was a massive alt season but BTC wasnt pulling back hard just that alts and especially ETH, greatly outpaced BTC's run.
If BTC domiance goes much higher, it could break out and run (Which could be due to a major price run or major price dump), if it breaks down much more it means we will break the trend that we have been riding since Dec.2022. In either case, it will signify some pretty major market moves. Because the way the chart looks like right now for BTC price, I suspect this dominance chart is about to make a pretty big shift as well.
So in short the futures orderbooks are the only thing that look half way decent but that could just lend itself to a major liquidation event as well as it could be those traders were caught off guard.
I would be cautious about going long on any crypto until BTC finds footing and once it does, should be a great entry op much like the last one a couple weeks ago or so.
This is not investment advice, just one of many additional informations for you to to consider in your own research, always DYOR!
Here in the zoomed out chart, you can see why I have been calling $79k/80k top for this run and we havent seen it yet, I do believe this is just a slow down to that goal and that is fine because we were going to get there way too quick on our prior paths.
I have seen many times a fast wick break a trend line and it can be ignored, as an anomaly, but this isnt looking like too fast of a wick at the moment and so this break in the trend looks to be notable.
The global order books are in decline and traders have been pulling their orders giving up hope on capturing gains on their prior holdings, likely liquidating, much like myself. The drop in books isnt so dramatic to support these lower lines I have drawn though so maybe I have missed some other potential support, futures order books still show a lot of traders thinking BTC $72k is around the corner, though they too could have been caught off guard in bulk.
Lets also talk about BTC dominance for a second. Yes anything you can quantify can be charted and you can find probabilities to help you determine direction. BTC Dominance is how much of the crypto market is composed of BTC's market cap, it has had hard support at 40% for so many years and we arent even close to that at the moment but we are reaching an upper band of a multi-year descent channel that will make us decide between maintaining a 5 year descending trend or an 18 month ascending trend, its had that strong ascending support for the last 18 months. When BTC goes up and its market cap outpaces all the other alts, it will increase it dominance, this is most times when BTC rises because its market cap is so much bigger than the rest it doesnt take much to add so many billions to its market cap. Another common way that BTC dominance rises is when the whole market crashes but everything crashes much harder than BTC like BTC drops 5-7% but alts drop 15%-20% for example. This does seem to be lessing over the years but still happens for sure. We did see in the last major crash that lead to our last crypto winter, that Everything crashed so hard that BTC lost dominance while alts also crashed and burned. The first time BTC had a major dominance crash it crashed from 90% to 40% dominance and that was a massive alt season but BTC wasnt pulling back hard just that alts and especially ETH, greatly outpaced BTC's run.
If BTC domiance goes much higher, it could break out and run (Which could be due to a major price run or major price dump), if it breaks down much more it means we will break the trend that we have been riding since Dec.2022. In either case, it will signify some pretty major market moves. Because the way the chart looks like right now for BTC price, I suspect this dominance chart is about to make a pretty big shift as well.
So in short the futures orderbooks are the only thing that look half way decent but that could just lend itself to a major liquidation event as well as it could be those traders were caught off guard.
I would be cautious about going long on any crypto until BTC finds footing and once it does, should be a great entry op much like the last one a couple weeks ago or so.
This is not investment advice, just one of many additional informations for you to to consider in your own research, always DYOR!