The more I study BTC the more I start to think that BTC practically never moves on it's own.
If you look at the chart, every time that BTC topped the US dollar index made a signifcant local low. I think this means that it's not the average Joes buying BTC that make it move.
Also, look at the correlation coeeficients, DXYBTC tends to be negatively correlated (one goes up, the other goes down) and BTCSPX positively (one goes up, the other one also goes up.) BTC and SPX are correlated specifically noticeably lately, almost reaching a perfect correlation of 1.
I believe there is some sort of ultra algorithm that runs this markets all in tandem, and right now given the uncertainty in the World, whoever is behind that algorithm just set BTC to mimic SPX for the moment.
Anyway, we can see that DXY is approaching a pretty big resistance that it's been rejected from 2 times in the past. After being rejected from that resistance it formed a local low that made a new BTC ATH.
DXY is measured against a basket of currrencies. If the situation in the US is so bad like everyone is saying, it's illogical that DXY is rising right? I think the explanation is that the biggest part in the basket of currencies against DXY is the Euro (around 50% of the basket) and I guess the EU has it worse because of the war in Ukraine and Russian energy?
My bet is that BTC will go to the ATH zone in this year 2022.
My reasoining:
- I think it's very significant that BTC made two tops this time instead of the usual spike. I think it shows that BTC has reached a new level of adoption and exposure. It's got attention.
- I think it's kind of "too easy" or "too simple" to just short BTC. The reasoning of most people is basically: "man everytime BTC corrects 80% after ATH, this time will not be different." Okay, genius why didn't you leverage short 1M BTC at ATH if everything is so obvious? If anything BTC is already down 50% from ATH, whoever was shorting probably closed their positions. Also, the pool of data to reliable say what BTC does after ATH is too tiny. There were like 3 or 4 peaks before this one, 3-4 occurences of something is not enough to make it a fact.
- Comparing BTC today to 2012 or something is pointless. Back then nobody except for ultra geeks knew about BTC, nowadays even boomers know about it and some even buy it.
- According to the Commitment of Traders report (which shows the positions of market participants.) the 4 biggest longs comprise 60% of open interest. The big boys are interested in longing at the moment.
- Given the shitty situation in the world and inflation in the US, I hope the dollar will crash and whoever the big boys are will load up on BTC, but I think there are other reasons why it could grow besides this.
- After the US froze all bank accounts of Russia in like a couple of days it showed the whole world that if you don't play the way they want you to play, you get cut off the grid. I don't think China, Arabs and others (who have an army and can defend themselves) are interested in this BS and that's why they are already talking about transacting in other currencies. (China and Saudis trading in CNY)
- You can't block, freeze, censor, or ban Bitcoin. You can make it hard for people to use but you can't get rid of it. You can't sanction it. This Russia Ukraine situation was a very good example of how laws and contracts are instantly forgotten if the political situation changes.
I'll add more info if I think of something else to add here.
Like if you found this info useful.
If you look at the chart, every time that BTC topped the US dollar index made a signifcant local low. I think this means that it's not the average Joes buying BTC that make it move.
Also, look at the correlation coeeficients, DXYBTC tends to be negatively correlated (one goes up, the other goes down) and BTCSPX positively (one goes up, the other one also goes up.) BTC and SPX are correlated specifically noticeably lately, almost reaching a perfect correlation of 1.
I believe there is some sort of ultra algorithm that runs this markets all in tandem, and right now given the uncertainty in the World, whoever is behind that algorithm just set BTC to mimic SPX for the moment.
Anyway, we can see that DXY is approaching a pretty big resistance that it's been rejected from 2 times in the past. After being rejected from that resistance it formed a local low that made a new BTC ATH.
DXY is measured against a basket of currrencies. If the situation in the US is so bad like everyone is saying, it's illogical that DXY is rising right? I think the explanation is that the biggest part in the basket of currencies against DXY is the Euro (around 50% of the basket) and I guess the EU has it worse because of the war in Ukraine and Russian energy?
My bet is that BTC will go to the ATH zone in this year 2022.
My reasoining:
- I think it's very significant that BTC made two tops this time instead of the usual spike. I think it shows that BTC has reached a new level of adoption and exposure. It's got attention.
- I think it's kind of "too easy" or "too simple" to just short BTC. The reasoning of most people is basically: "man everytime BTC corrects 80% after ATH, this time will not be different." Okay, genius why didn't you leverage short 1M BTC at ATH if everything is so obvious? If anything BTC is already down 50% from ATH, whoever was shorting probably closed their positions. Also, the pool of data to reliable say what BTC does after ATH is too tiny. There were like 3 or 4 peaks before this one, 3-4 occurences of something is not enough to make it a fact.
- Comparing BTC today to 2012 or something is pointless. Back then nobody except for ultra geeks knew about BTC, nowadays even boomers know about it and some even buy it.
- According to the Commitment of Traders report (which shows the positions of market participants.) the 4 biggest longs comprise 60% of open interest. The big boys are interested in longing at the moment.
- Given the shitty situation in the world and inflation in the US, I hope the dollar will crash and whoever the big boys are will load up on BTC, but I think there are other reasons why it could grow besides this.
- After the US froze all bank accounts of Russia in like a couple of days it showed the whole world that if you don't play the way they want you to play, you get cut off the grid. I don't think China, Arabs and others (who have an army and can defend themselves) are interested in this BS and that's why they are already talking about transacting in other currencies. (China and Saudis trading in CNY)
- You can't block, freeze, censor, or ban Bitcoin. You can make it hard for people to use but you can't get rid of it. You can't sanction it. This Russia Ukraine situation was a very good example of how laws and contracts are instantly forgotten if the political situation changes.
I'll add more info if I think of something else to add here.
Like if you found this info useful.