Good morning again ladies and gentlemen and welcome back to my daily look into the volatility roller coaster we call Bitcoin. Today I have the 4hr time frame pulled up after retaking some significant support over night. We are not quite out of the woods yet but I am more optimistic than I was Monday. At least short term optimistic. Long term I am full bull. As we reclaim former support I am wondering if we can keep this party going til we break back above 40k. I will explain what is holding the candles back and also discuss the possibility of retaking 40k. So grab a coffee or a beer and pull up a bean bag. We have crypto to analyze!
I notice that we retook the 4hr 50 MA (orange line) on the chart. That was the break I was looking for. I havent based my entire strategy on the 4hr 50 MA (as that would be extremely narrow minded) but I have not ignored the fact that it has played a significant role in price action over the past few months. When we broke above the 4hr 50 MA yesterday I was excited to see it but the encapsulating nature of the cloud held the bulls from advancing any further. So here we sit. Between a rock (4hr 50 MA) and a hard place (Top border of the 4hr cloud) We cant remain in this tight spot forever so if you are going to enter a position make sure you set a stop loss and play this market with caution... The bears have made their presence known and I believe they are watching and waiting for the next opportunity...
When we broke the 4hr 50 MA (orange line) on the chart we hit the top of the cloud and retested that 4hr 50 MA very soon after breaking through. It did hold which is encouraging. It shows the usefulness of an indicator like the 50 MA (on any time frame) but it also tells me that the path of least resistance isnt quite as obvious as I like it to be. "So whats your next move Tim?" Well If I am entering a long here Im setting my stop loss right away. Somewhere below support (4hr 50 MA) This limits the risk I expose myself too while opening the possibility of gaining profit at the same time. Low risk trades are where its at folks. Thats why I avoid trading leverage. I am not a fan of trading high risk. I know many will say otherwise but my method of trading with USDT has netted me a lot of profit and I can not say I wont ever trade leverage but while Im making plenty of profit trading BTC/USDT I figure why mess with success. Also it helps me avoid risk. I would say my strategy is extremely low risk so long as you stick with the strategy.
The real test this morning is breaking up out of this cloud. The 4hr cloud has enveloped the candles and if we break up out of this mess we have a real shot at filling that illustrious gap that formed last weekend. If we do fill that gap we will likely eclipse 40500 minimum. So we can technically fill the gap without creating the higher high traders everywhere want to see. A higher high would be anything over 42k. Its so close yet so far away.
There are a few factors that arent on the chart I want to bring up today. Things that indicators cannot predict. Things like the upcoming stimulus. Hear me out. If the US hands out the 2k to people I suspect many of these people will throw that money into BTC. Even if just 1% of them throw money into BTC it should cause a pump. Not only that... If they print 2k for each US citizen this will inevitably cause inflation. I believe the recent run we are still technically in the middle of was largely fueled by inflation (due to mass money printing brought to you by the US govt and the FED) We saw the results of printing US dollars. It causes anything tied to them to increase in terms of how many US dollars it takes to buy said item. Bitcoin is no different than a loaf of bread when it comes to inflation. When they print US dollars Bitcoin will benefit and show that it is more of a hedge than people realize. A volatile hedge but a hedge none the less. Eventually I do believe BTC will stabilize. But in the mean time its been a traders dream. 5000 dollar swings in a day should get any trader excited. Keep an eye on Washington and the Stimulus packages. If they are going to print the US dollar into oblivion we may as well get front row seats to the destruction of the US dollar LOL. (Im exaggerating a bit... Or am I???)
I hope you all have a great day. Dont do anything I wouldnt do folks. If you want to trade here set a stop loss. No need to flex and show people how strong your hands are. Trading is not about losing money. It happens but if you can avoid it you should. And a stop loss is a great way to keep much of the profit you gain. The bulls are showing us they are still around but if we cannot break out of the 4hr cloud soon I believe the writing is on the wall. We will likely lose the 4hr 50 MA if we cant beat the cloud and fall back towards Earth. And its a long fall from Mars yall LOL. Please make good choices my friends. And always remember WTFDIK????
TLDR: If we break up from the 4hr cloud I see us filling the gap from last weekend (40k+) If we cant break up from the cloud I see us sinking a bit. I want to see us break 42k (higher high) but that may be asking a lot from an already over extended market. Time will tell...
I notice that we retook the 4hr 50 MA (orange line) on the chart. That was the break I was looking for. I havent based my entire strategy on the 4hr 50 MA (as that would be extremely narrow minded) but I have not ignored the fact that it has played a significant role in price action over the past few months. When we broke above the 4hr 50 MA yesterday I was excited to see it but the encapsulating nature of the cloud held the bulls from advancing any further. So here we sit. Between a rock (4hr 50 MA) and a hard place (Top border of the 4hr cloud) We cant remain in this tight spot forever so if you are going to enter a position make sure you set a stop loss and play this market with caution... The bears have made their presence known and I believe they are watching and waiting for the next opportunity...
When we broke the 4hr 50 MA (orange line) on the chart we hit the top of the cloud and retested that 4hr 50 MA very soon after breaking through. It did hold which is encouraging. It shows the usefulness of an indicator like the 50 MA (on any time frame) but it also tells me that the path of least resistance isnt quite as obvious as I like it to be. "So whats your next move Tim?" Well If I am entering a long here Im setting my stop loss right away. Somewhere below support (4hr 50 MA) This limits the risk I expose myself too while opening the possibility of gaining profit at the same time. Low risk trades are where its at folks. Thats why I avoid trading leverage. I am not a fan of trading high risk. I know many will say otherwise but my method of trading with USDT has netted me a lot of profit and I can not say I wont ever trade leverage but while Im making plenty of profit trading BTC/USDT I figure why mess with success. Also it helps me avoid risk. I would say my strategy is extremely low risk so long as you stick with the strategy.
The real test this morning is breaking up out of this cloud. The 4hr cloud has enveloped the candles and if we break up out of this mess we have a real shot at filling that illustrious gap that formed last weekend. If we do fill that gap we will likely eclipse 40500 minimum. So we can technically fill the gap without creating the higher high traders everywhere want to see. A higher high would be anything over 42k. Its so close yet so far away.
There are a few factors that arent on the chart I want to bring up today. Things that indicators cannot predict. Things like the upcoming stimulus. Hear me out. If the US hands out the 2k to people I suspect many of these people will throw that money into BTC. Even if just 1% of them throw money into BTC it should cause a pump. Not only that... If they print 2k for each US citizen this will inevitably cause inflation. I believe the recent run we are still technically in the middle of was largely fueled by inflation (due to mass money printing brought to you by the US govt and the FED) We saw the results of printing US dollars. It causes anything tied to them to increase in terms of how many US dollars it takes to buy said item. Bitcoin is no different than a loaf of bread when it comes to inflation. When they print US dollars Bitcoin will benefit and show that it is more of a hedge than people realize. A volatile hedge but a hedge none the less. Eventually I do believe BTC will stabilize. But in the mean time its been a traders dream. 5000 dollar swings in a day should get any trader excited. Keep an eye on Washington and the Stimulus packages. If they are going to print the US dollar into oblivion we may as well get front row seats to the destruction of the US dollar LOL. (Im exaggerating a bit... Or am I???)
I hope you all have a great day. Dont do anything I wouldnt do folks. If you want to trade here set a stop loss. No need to flex and show people how strong your hands are. Trading is not about losing money. It happens but if you can avoid it you should. And a stop loss is a great way to keep much of the profit you gain. The bulls are showing us they are still around but if we cannot break out of the 4hr cloud soon I believe the writing is on the wall. We will likely lose the 4hr 50 MA if we cant beat the cloud and fall back towards Earth. And its a long fall from Mars yall LOL. Please make good choices my friends. And always remember WTFDIK????
TLDR: If we break up from the 4hr cloud I see us filling the gap from last weekend (40k+) If we cant break up from the cloud I see us sinking a bit. I want to see us break 42k (higher high) but that may be asking a lot from an already over extended market. Time will tell...