This is just a hypothesis as there were only "2" historical data happened. The weakness of this hypothesis is the number of samples that is "Very few", PLZ aware of this before you read this analysis.
I think we have seen lots of analysis mentioned the influence of DXY to BTC lately
-Because DXY represents the strength of USD, measuring against other strong currencies, strong USD means BTC has less value in term of price.
"This is why I try to figure out how can we test this concept? how can we really create a system to understand them in an easy way but solid (hopeully)? "
What are assets in this chart?
1.BTCUSD's price is represented by the Blue line
2.DXY's value is represented by the Orange line
Why EMA 90/360 for each of them?
1. 90 is for quarterly cycle that is the harmonic of 1 year cycle, from my previous chart 1 year cycle does shown for BTC Bull/Bear cycle and that is correlated to traditional market cycle, so 360 is decided as longer term trend
2. Each quarter is traditionally decided as a short term cycle for equities market. It is when reports of each sector, company, and economic report are out. Sometimes, policies follow these reports so it makes sense to choose 90 to represent these.
Why BTC is compared to DXY?
-Undeniable DXY is a much much larger in market values. It is reasonably to think that DXY influences BTC if not at all, but not BTC influencing DXY for sure.
What does this chart tell you?
1. 90/360 is a very de-trended result. In theory, it will represent a super clean signal/late confirmation for "an" asset. However, when you have these 2 assets compared, DXY's trend changed is a "leading signal" for BTC trend change as you may see in the chart:
-The first cross over to the downside of DXY is an early signal for BTC that was in a sideway market and it followed with Bull cycle a bit later.
-The second cross over to the upside of DXY did shown at the ATH of BTC.
****2. Yet the only problem is that 90/360 is a bit long that we only have 2 samples here. Some analysis may ignore this analysis at all*****
"For the current market"
If this hypothesis holds true, we are not likely to see the BULL run of BTC soon till Q1 of next year at least
I think we have seen lots of analysis mentioned the influence of DXY to BTC lately
-Because DXY represents the strength of USD, measuring against other strong currencies, strong USD means BTC has less value in term of price.
"This is why I try to figure out how can we test this concept? how can we really create a system to understand them in an easy way but solid (hopeully)? "
What are assets in this chart?
1.BTCUSD's price is represented by the Blue line
2.DXY's value is represented by the Orange line
Why EMA 90/360 for each of them?
1. 90 is for quarterly cycle that is the harmonic of 1 year cycle, from my previous chart 1 year cycle does shown for BTC Bull/Bear cycle and that is correlated to traditional market cycle, so 360 is decided as longer term trend
2. Each quarter is traditionally decided as a short term cycle for equities market. It is when reports of each sector, company, and economic report are out. Sometimes, policies follow these reports so it makes sense to choose 90 to represent these.
Why BTC is compared to DXY?
-Undeniable DXY is a much much larger in market values. It is reasonably to think that DXY influences BTC if not at all, but not BTC influencing DXY for sure.
What does this chart tell you?
1. 90/360 is a very de-trended result. In theory, it will represent a super clean signal/late confirmation for "an" asset. However, when you have these 2 assets compared, DXY's trend changed is a "leading signal" for BTC trend change as you may see in the chart:
-The first cross over to the downside of DXY is an early signal for BTC that was in a sideway market and it followed with Bull cycle a bit later.
-The second cross over to the upside of DXY did shown at the ATH of BTC.
****2. Yet the only problem is that 90/360 is a bit long that we only have 2 samples here. Some analysis may ignore this analysis at all*****
"For the current market"
If this hypothesis holds true, we are not likely to see the BULL run of BTC soon till Q1 of next year at least
Comment:
Well it was not 2 samples, but 5 samples if using BTCUSD on Bitstamp yet very few still. 2017 BTC Bull and 2018 bear cycle did conform to this hypothesis.