Comprehensive analysis : short-term decline in funds
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(USDT chart)
(1D chart)
The most recent decline was on August 8, 2023.
Before that, a precursor to a downward trend occurred starting on June 18th.
Currently, the gap has begun to decline since January 19th and has fallen below the HA-High indicator.
If the gap decreases due to this movement and falls below the MS-Signal indicator, it is expected to record a downward trend for a while.
(1M charts)
However, this decline is likely to be a short-term adjustment of about a month, such as in August 2023.
In order to record the downward trend that started in May 2022, large gap declines must occur in succession, so we still need to monitor the situation.
Therefore, I don't think there is any need to have much fear just yet.
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(USDC chart)
While USDT has begun to gap down, USDC continues to gap up.
If the gap continues to rise above 26.525B, it is expected that USDC will likely continue its upward trend.
I believe that this gap increase is evidence that funds are flowing into the coin market.
Therefore, it is expected that a new market will begin to change hands.
This is because USDC is viewed as a leading funding channel for American investment institutions and investors.
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(BTCUSDT chart)
(1W chart)
The main question from this week will be whether there is support or resistance near the HA-High indicator on the 1W chart.
The HA-High indicator on the 1W chart was created at 42141.24.
Therefore, if the price is maintained above the 42141.24-43823.59 range, you can be considered to be at the starting line of the major upward trend.
Therefore, it corresponds to a major bull market, that is, a buying period for a full-fledged uptrend.
It is the movement of altcoins that allows us to piecemeal know whether these movements are correct.
All you have to do is check whether the altcoins show signs of rising in unison when they rise above the 42141.24-43823.59 range.
(BTC.D chart)
As mentioned in the USDT explanation above, this decline is expected to last about a month in the short term, so we need to check whether the BTC dominance rises by more than 61% or falls below 50%.
In order for a major bull market to begin, it is expected that BTC dominance must rise by more than 61% and then begin to decline.
This is because it is expected that an altcoin bull market will begin when BTC dominance falls below 50%.
Therefore, if the BTC price maintains the price above the 42141.24-43823.59 range and the BTC dominance rises by more than 61% and then begins to fall, the coin market is expected to begin a major bull market.
A major bull market refers to a bull market in which most coins (tokens) are likely to renew their all-time highs (ATH).
An altcoin bull market refers to a bull market in which you can make a profit no matter which altcoin you buy.
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It is said that price and volume are important when trading in the stock market, and in fact they are important.
However, trading volume in the coin market has less meaning than in the stock market.
This is because trading volume is spread across multiple exchanges.
Therefore, I believe that transaction volume in the coin market should be judged by the flow of funds.
Therefore, I believe that the gap between USDT and USDC has important implications.
Changes in USDT or USDC due to transactions are expressed as candles.
Therefore, the inflow and outflow of funds is expressed as the occurrence of a gap.
Have a good time.
thank you
--------------------------------------------------
- The big picture
The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.
This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future.
We need to see if we can break through these points upward.
Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting zone, you should check the movement when this zone is touched.
If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
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** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Trading volume is displayed as a candle body based on 10EMA.
How to display (in order from darkest to darkest)
More than 3 times the trading volume of 10EMA > 2.5 times > 2.0 times > 1.25 times > Trading volume below 10EMA
** Even if you know other people’s know-how, it takes a considerable amount of time to make it your own.
** This chart was created using my know-how.
---------------------------------
If you "Follow" us, you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click “Boost”.
Have a good day.
-------------------------------------
(USDT chart)
(1D chart)
Before that, a precursor to a downward trend occurred starting on June 18th.
If the gap decreases due to this movement and falls below the MS-Signal indicator, it is expected to record a downward trend for a while.
(1M charts)
In order to record the downward trend that started in May 2022, large gap declines must occur in succession, so we still need to monitor the situation.
---------------------------------------
(USDC chart)
If the gap continues to rise above 26.525B, it is expected that USDC will likely continue its upward trend.
I believe that this gap increase is evidence that funds are flowing into the coin market.
Therefore, it is expected that a new market will begin to change hands.
This is because USDC is viewed as a leading funding channel for American investment institutions and investors.
-------------------------------------
(BTCUSDT chart)
(1W chart)
The HA-High indicator on the 1W chart was created at 42141.24.
Therefore, if the price is maintained above the 42141.24-43823.59 range, you can be considered to be at the starting line of the major upward trend.
Therefore, it corresponds to a major bull market, that is, a buying period for a full-fledged uptrend.
It is the movement of altcoins that allows us to piecemeal know whether these movements are correct.
All you have to do is check whether the altcoins show signs of rising in unison when they rise above the 42141.24-43823.59 range.
(BTC.D chart)
In order for a major bull market to begin, it is expected that BTC dominance must rise by more than 61% and then begin to decline.
This is because it is expected that an altcoin bull market will begin when BTC dominance falls below 50%.
Therefore, if the BTC price maintains the price above the 42141.24-43823.59 range and the BTC dominance rises by more than 61% and then begins to fall, the coin market is expected to begin a major bull market.
A major bull market refers to a bull market in which most coins (tokens) are likely to renew their all-time highs (ATH).
An altcoin bull market refers to a bull market in which you can make a profit no matter which altcoin you buy.
--------------------------------------
It is said that price and volume are important when trading in the stock market, and in fact they are important.
However, trading volume in the coin market has less meaning than in the stock market.
This is because trading volume is spread across multiple exchanges.
Therefore, I believe that transaction volume in the coin market should be judged by the flow of funds.
Therefore, I believe that the gap between USDT and USDC has important implications.
Changes in USDT or USDC due to transactions are expressed as candles.
Therefore, the inflow and outflow of funds is expressed as the occurrence of a gap.
Have a good time.
thank you
--------------------------------------------------
- The big picture
This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future.
We need to see if we can break through these points upward.
Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting zone, you should check the movement when this zone is touched.
If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
-------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------
** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Trading volume is displayed as a candle body based on 10EMA.
How to display (in order from darkest to darkest)
More than 3 times the trading volume of 10EMA > 2.5 times > 2.0 times > 1.25 times > Trading volume below 10EMA
** Even if you know other people’s know-how, it takes a considerable amount of time to make it your own.
** This chart was created using my know-how.
---------------------------------
Comment:
The trading time is when the HA-Low indicator is newly created.
When the HA-Low indicator is created, if it shows support near the HA-Low indicator, it is time to start trading.
If the HA-Low indicator is not supported and falls, you should check to see if it falls to the area around 37253.81-38531.90 and shows support.
If there is support and an uptick near the current price position, i.e. around 39845.44, we need to see if the price can be maintained by rising above the MS-Signal indicator.
If the price stays above the MS-Signal indicator, then it is time to open a trade.
When you see support at any point, check to see if the BW indicator shows an upward trend, create a trading strategy accordingly, and start trading.
Summarizing the above,
1. Check whether support is received near the newly created HA-Low indicator.
2. Check if support is received around 37253.81-38531.90.
3. Check whether the price can be maintained by rising above the MS-Signal indicator.
When you see support around numbers 1-3 above, you will know that it is time to buy in installments.
Ultimately, it is time to buy when it is supported and rises around 43160.0-43823.59.
Therefore, most purchases will be made when the price rises to around 43160.0-43823.59.
The reason is that the range where FOMO operates is likely to be the 43160.0-43823.59 range.
When the HA-Low indicator is created, if it shows support near the HA-Low indicator, it is time to start trading.
If the HA-Low indicator is not supported and falls, you should check to see if it falls to the area around 37253.81-38531.90 and shows support.
If there is support and an uptick near the current price position, i.e. around 39845.44, we need to see if the price can be maintained by rising above the MS-Signal indicator.
If the price stays above the MS-Signal indicator, then it is time to open a trade.
When you see support at any point, check to see if the BW indicator shows an upward trend, create a trading strategy accordingly, and start trading.
Summarizing the above,
1. Check whether support is received near the newly created HA-Low indicator.
2. Check if support is received around 37253.81-38531.90.
3. Check whether the price can be maintained by rising above the MS-Signal indicator.
When you see support around numbers 1-3 above, you will know that it is time to buy in installments.
Ultimately, it is time to buy when it is supported and rises around 43160.0-43823.59.
Therefore, most purchases will be made when the price rises to around 43160.0-43823.59.
The reason is that the range where FOMO operates is likely to be the 43160.0-43823.59 range.
Comment:
(USDT.D chart)
If USDT dominance rises above 6.39, there is a possibility that the coin market will experience a significant decline.
Accordingly, it is necessary to check whether it can meet resistance and decline around 6.39 between January 23rd and 26th.
(BTC.D chart)
At this time, if BTC dominance also rises and rises above 53.66, the coin market is expected to show a complete decline.
It is expected that we will be able to know whether this downward trend is a short-term downward trend by checking the movement of the coin market when it rises.
One important thing is
1st: 37253.81-38531.90
2nd: 32917.17-34110.32
What is important is whether or not you receive support in the first and second areas above.
This is because the first section is the section where the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart is passing, and the second section is the section where the M-Signal indicator of the 1M chart is passing.
Therefore, falling below the second range means that there is a high possibility of a downward trend from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, if it is supported and rises in the first and second sections, I think it is more likely that it will receive support and rise near the first section.
A prerequisite is that there is no further outflow of funds from the coin market.
Accordingly, it is necessary to check whether it can meet resistance and decline around 6.39 between January 23rd and 26th.
(BTC.D chart)
It is expected that we will be able to know whether this downward trend is a short-term downward trend by checking the movement of the coin market when it rises.
1st: 37253.81-38531.90
2nd: 32917.17-34110.32
What is important is whether or not you receive support in the first and second areas above.
This is because the first section is the section where the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart is passing, and the second section is the section where the M-Signal indicator of the 1M chart is passing.
Therefore, falling below the second range means that there is a high possibility of a downward trend from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, if it is supported and rises in the first and second sections, I think it is more likely that it will receive support and rise near the first section.
Comment:
During this volatility period (January 22nd-27th), we need to see if there is resistance around 6.39 and can fall.
If USDT's further gap decline does not continue or a large gap decline does not occur, this decline is expected to serve to increase buying power in the coin market.
If USDT's further gap decline does not continue or a large gap decline does not occur, this decline is expected to serve to increase buying power in the coin market.
Comment:
The TS-BW indicator, a secondary indicator, was set to a range of -50 to +50 to include multiple indicators.
So, if we change the value of the HA RSI indicator to the original RSI indicator range, we get 50 - 19.13 = 30.87.
Therefore, if it falls below 38531.90, there is a high possibility that the HA-Low indicator will be generated.
If the outflow of funds from the coin market does not continue, it is expected that there is a high possibility of support around the first range, 37253.81-38531.90.
If it fails to receive support in the first section, it may fall near the second section, 32917.17-34110.32, so you need to think about a response plan.
It's the same story, but I said it again as the possibility of the HA-Low indicator being generated near the first section increases.
So, if we change the value of the HA RSI indicator to the original RSI indicator range, we get 50 - 19.13 = 30.87.
Therefore, if it falls below 38531.90, there is a high possibility that the HA-Low indicator will be generated.
If the outflow of funds from the coin market does not continue, it is expected that there is a high possibility of support around the first range, 37253.81-38531.90.
If it fails to receive support in the first section, it may fall near the second section, 32917.17-34110.32, so you need to think about a response plan.
It's the same story, but I said it again as the possibility of the HA-Low indicator being generated near the first section increases.
Comment:
Since the TS-BW indicator cannot be considered a special indicator, I do not think there is a need to disclose it.
The BW indicator is a composite indicator of MACD, StochRSI, CCI, supertrend, and PVT indicators.
Therefore, it expresses the strength of the uptrend and downtrend based on the 0 point.
Since the BW indicator is currently located at -50, it can be interpreted as indicating a strong downward trend.
Looking at the finger displayed on the TS-BW indicator, you can see that the BW indicator touched -50 and formed a bottom section.
Therefore, in order to form a bottom section, it is necessary to check whether the HA-Low indicator is created in the future.
For the above reasons, I think it is better to watch the situation rather than buy now, and if the HA-Low indicator is generated, check if it is supported near the HA-Low indicator and then start buying.
The reason for displaying the StochRSI indicator separately is to see short-term waves.
Therefore, if the StochRSI indicator rises while the BW indicator is in a strong downward trend, short-term trading is possible.
At this time, aggressive buying is possible and the expected first selling section is when the MS-Signal indicator is touched.
Since the MS-Signal indicator is an indicator that indicates a trend, rising above the MS-Signal indicator means that there is a high possibility of an upward trend.
Therefore, it is a section where there is a high possibility that it will pretend to turn into an upward trend and then decline.
In that sense, when the MS-Signal indicator rises above the BW indicator, it can be seen that the BW indicator also shows signs of rising, which increases the likelihood of a conversion to an upward trend.
Currently, the order is M-Signal of 1D chart > M-Signal of 1W chart > M-Signal of 1M chart.
Therefore, I think the current decline should be evaluated differently from previous declines.
I think it is correct to interpret the current decline as creating a pullback pattern, unlike before.
If the 1M chart falls below the M-Signal indicator and changes occur in the arrangement of the M-Signal indicator, the coin market should interpret it as an attempt to form a new trend.
In other words, it should be interpreted as an attempt to change the coin market from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Many people seem to think that it will drop to around 32K.
If it falls below 32K and is not supported near the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, you will be buying in a trend reversal zone, so you need to be careful.
Therefore, it is highly likely that you will start buying when you see support in the first section mentioned earlier.
When the price falls into the second section, I believe that there are many cases where the market is unable to purchase due to fear of the decline, so I believe that a minimum number of purchases must be made in the first section before purchases can be made in the second section.
Since this is an effect caused by a change in psychological state, you may think you can buy in the second range right now, but if it actually falls, it is highly likely that you will experience a psychological change that will prevent you from buying.
Looking at the previous finger positions, the BW indicator touched the -50 point and 6 days later it met the HA-Low indicator.
Therefore, if there is sideways movement in the current price range, I think there is a possibility that the HA-Low indicator will be created sometime next week.
If it fails to sideways and falls, it is likely that the HA-Low indicator will be created sooner.
However, if that happens, there is a possibility of a two-stage decline, so whether or not it is supported by the HA-Low indicator will be an important factor.
The BW indicator is a composite indicator of MACD, StochRSI, CCI, supertrend, and PVT indicators.
Therefore, it expresses the strength of the uptrend and downtrend based on the 0 point.
Since the BW indicator is currently located at -50, it can be interpreted as indicating a strong downward trend.
Looking at the finger displayed on the TS-BW indicator, you can see that the BW indicator touched -50 and formed a bottom section.
Therefore, in order to form a bottom section, it is necessary to check whether the HA-Low indicator is created in the future.
For the above reasons, I think it is better to watch the situation rather than buy now, and if the HA-Low indicator is generated, check if it is supported near the HA-Low indicator and then start buying.
The reason for displaying the StochRSI indicator separately is to see short-term waves.
Therefore, if the StochRSI indicator rises while the BW indicator is in a strong downward trend, short-term trading is possible.
At this time, aggressive buying is possible and the expected first selling section is when the MS-Signal indicator is touched.
Since the MS-Signal indicator is an indicator that indicates a trend, rising above the MS-Signal indicator means that there is a high possibility of an upward trend.
Therefore, it is a section where there is a high possibility that it will pretend to turn into an upward trend and then decline.
In that sense, when the MS-Signal indicator rises above the BW indicator, it can be seen that the BW indicator also shows signs of rising, which increases the likelihood of a conversion to an upward trend.
Currently, the order is M-Signal of 1D chart > M-Signal of 1W chart > M-Signal of 1M chart.
Therefore, I think the current decline should be evaluated differently from previous declines.
I think it is correct to interpret the current decline as creating a pullback pattern, unlike before.
If the 1M chart falls below the M-Signal indicator and changes occur in the arrangement of the M-Signal indicator, the coin market should interpret it as an attempt to form a new trend.
In other words, it should be interpreted as an attempt to change the coin market from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Many people seem to think that it will drop to around 32K.
If it falls below 32K and is not supported near the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, you will be buying in a trend reversal zone, so you need to be careful.
Therefore, it is highly likely that you will start buying when you see support in the first section mentioned earlier.
When the price falls into the second section, I believe that there are many cases where the market is unable to purchase due to fear of the decline, so I believe that a minimum number of purchases must be made in the first section before purchases can be made in the second section.
Since this is an effect caused by a change in psychological state, you may think you can buy in the second range right now, but if it actually falls, it is highly likely that you will experience a psychological change that will prevent you from buying.
Looking at the previous finger positions, the BW indicator touched the -50 point and 6 days later it met the HA-Low indicator.
Therefore, if there is sideways movement in the current price range, I think there is a possibility that the HA-Low indicator will be created sometime next week.
If it fails to sideways and falls, it is likely that the HA-Low indicator will be created sooner.
However, if that happens, there is a possibility of a two-stage decline, so whether or not it is supported by the HA-Low indicator will be an important factor.
Comment:
(BTCUSDT.P 1h chart)
It is expected to touch the 5EMA on the 1D chart.
When the 5EMA is touched, volatility is expected to occur.
It is necessary to check the correlation between the BW indicator and the StochRSI indicator.
When the 5EMA is touched, volatility is expected to occur.
It is necessary to check the correlation between the BW indicator and the StochRSI indicator.
Comment:
Even if a spot ETF is launched, since it was launched in a market other than the coin market, I think the ETF will ultimately move according to the movement of the coin market.
I think this is a temporary phenomenon unless there is an outflow of funds from the coin market.
Since the spot ETF has been launched and funds are continuously flowing into the coin market through USDC, I think the coin market is likely to maintain an upward trend.
I think this is a temporary phenomenon unless there is an outflow of funds from the coin market.
Since the spot ETF has been launched and funds are continuously flowing into the coin market through USDC, I think the coin market is likely to maintain an upward trend.
[Example of exchange chart setup]
(Binance)
www.tradingview.com/x/S94aDxa8
(Upbit)
www.tradingview.com/x/DF6cGh3G/
(Binance)
www.tradingview.com/x/S94aDxa8
(Upbit)
www.tradingview.com/x/DF6cGh3G/
The source value of the RSI indicator used the closing price of the Heikin Ashi candle.
Therefore, when the RSI indicator falls into the oversold zone and then shows an upward trend, there is a high possibility that a new HA-Low indicator will be created.
Therefore, I think that what is currently considered a good movement is a movement that falls a little further, creates the HA-Low indicator, and then receives support and rises.
In that sense, it falls to around 39845.44, confirming that the HA-Low indicator is created and supported.
When the StochRSI indicator rises from the oversold range, it is necessary to check whether the BW indicator also rises together.