[Detailed BTC Analysis] Sentiments changes but Technical don't!

From the past 2 months, Bitcoin has been moving in the Bearish trend and the market sentiments were also bearish since then.


When BTC closed below 50 Week EMA, Elon Musk, Jack and others announced the Bitcoin Conference out of nowhere which created a pre-event FOMO in the market and started turning the market green although technical where bearish in zoomed out view.

Last Sunday, there was fake news about Amazon that they're accepting Bitcoin. This boosted the Bullish momentum of Bitcoin but I, as an analyst, am not still bullish.

Below are the REASONS WHY I AM NOT BULLISH ON BITCOIN:

• BTC Divergence:
  Since the fake Amazon news pump, Bitcoin's price action is not corelating with Relative Strength Index (RSI). We are watching higher highs and lows in BTC Price while lower highs and lows in RSI that clearly indicates that the the Bulls are getting tried and we might see price drop very soon.
  
  
• Declining Volume:
  Although we have seen the volume injection in Bitcoin on Amazon news but since then, it's constantly declining which again depicts something is fishy.
  
  
• Pattern:
  With Bearish Divergence, we usually see a bearish-biased seemingly upward facing pattern. In Technical Analysis, we call it Rising Wedge Pattern. This is exactly what BTC is moving in.
  
  There is a wide bullish channel in which BTC is moving but with declining momentum, BTC is also forming a smaller, slightly tilted bullish pattern. If we see both channels in common grounds, a rising wedge can easily be seen.
  
  
• EMA & MA
  EMA moves more closely with the price action that's why it is more used to do technical analysis in short-term but Moving Average (MA) is used for analyzing long-term trend.
  
  BTC's 200 Day Moving Average is around $44700 so, I think BTC can go to this level and know that this level is HARD!
  
  In 4hour timeframe, 21,50,100 & 200 EMA are acting as potential support levels. If BTC closes below 21EMA in 4h, it will move down to the next.
  
  
• Cloud Resistance & Support
  In daily timeframe, BTC is facing huge resistance from the the cloud while, in 4h timeframe, $33000 is the strong cloud support.
  

If you have any queries, comment section is for you.

Muneeb.