Please see:
For more information and past analysis.
VOR UPDATE:
For more information and past analysis.
VOR UPDATE:
- Day 12 of the Valley of Resistance. It re-tested the mid trendline, as predicted.
- 3 Days later it tested it again breaking through the resistance. - 22nd March
- After breaking through the middle trendline of resistance it tested the 200EMA resistance fell and converted the middle trendline resistance into bullish support. - 23rd march
- From the middle trendline it worked its way above the 200EMA resistance, fell, and held support again above the 200EMA. - 24th March
- Closing and holding support in the orange triangle is bullish. As you can see, every time it peaked through the middle trendline it was politically motivated and a dump followed as it held no real volume; the "Biden Pump" (Executive Order for crypto regulation) for example (9th march to the 10th march).
- Since, it has followed a reasonable uptrend in which it has tested resistance, broke through a few times and is now finally holding support above the middle trendline. This accumulation of support over the past few days/weeks will prove to be strong enough to continue its uptrend.
As I'm bullish on BTC according to this price-action, It's likely we won't see any dumps strong enough to dip below 40k/41k in the near future (assuming the 200EMA confidently holds support one more time) unless geopolitical FUD occurs i.e. Ukraine/Russia/ inflation /IR hikes/national Food shortages etc.
Comment:
"In a perfect world, it's another squeeze coming" is coming to fruition on the 22nd March 10PM.
It will now retest the top trendline and resistance at 48k. With its momentum, it is likely to find a bit of resistance then finally break through to a new higher high.
It will now retest the top trendline and resistance at 48k. With its momentum, it is likely to find a bit of resistance then finally break through to a new higher high.
Comment:
28th March 10pm*
The above update had the wrong date.
The above update had the wrong date.
Comment:
A pattern developed similar (but not the same of course) to a Wyckoff.
Indicating a bullish move upward soon.
Indicating a bullish move upward soon.
Comment:
Our March 28th update analysis of a bearish divergence, over-bought RSI, with a "minor correction is imminent" statement has proven true.
- Our bullish outlook is still strong with the RSI being OVER-SOLD after the flash EURO-FUD dump which I'm now dubbing the 'April Fools Scam Dump'. Unfortunately Bearish Barry's expectations won't be met in this cycle.
Now, to see if the 44k/45k will hold as support on the Daily 200EMA line. Assuming this holds, it will accumulate for a little while and is quite likely, considering the current conditions, to pump up again, retesting resistance at these prices:
45.5k, 46k, 46.6k, 46.8k.
- Although there are those points of resistance to test, they don't hold much volume to break through, so we could see more of a parabolic movement in the coming hours or days.
- Alternatively, IF Bearish Barry's expectations are met, we could see it dump toward 43.2k.
- Our bullish outlook is still strong with the RSI being OVER-SOLD after the flash EURO-FUD dump which I'm now dubbing the 'April Fools Scam Dump'. Unfortunately Bearish Barry's expectations won't be met in this cycle.
Now, to see if the 44k/45k will hold as support on the Daily 200EMA line. Assuming this holds, it will accumulate for a little while and is quite likely, considering the current conditions, to pump up again, retesting resistance at these prices:
45.5k, 46k, 46.6k, 46.8k.
- Although there are those points of resistance to test, they don't hold much volume to break through, so we could see more of a parabolic movement in the coming hours or days.
- Alternatively, IF Bearish Barry's expectations are met, we could see it dump toward 43.2k.
Comment:
1. Yellow dotted lines between top, middle and bottom trendlines are, historically, support and resistance.
2. Trading on the upper half between the middle and upper trendline.
- 2.1 It is Bullish when it trades on the upper half of the yellow line. It will create a Valley of Resistance against the above trendline.
- 2.2 It is Bearish when it trades on the upper half of the yellow line. It will create a Valley of Support against the below trendline.
3. Biden Executive Order PUMP (Crypto Regulation). These NEWS pumps are typically 90% to 100% dumps soon after. Especially when testing a trendline of resistance.
4. Ideally it turns this into support and develops its Valley of Resistance in the upper half of this section. If it goes below we could see it test 42k/43k.
'VOR' NOTES:
- Peak of resistance is reached when it tests the above trendline.
- Based on price action (Bullish or Bearish), you can set up these 3 trendlines with the respective 2 support/resistance lines anywhere so long as they fit. If the current price action is in a state of fear and bearish considering recent volatility, it will likely trade on the lower half between each line; vice versa applies to bullish. If it has recently had or has bullish price action, or there is greed in the market, it will trade on the top half between each trendline.
- Relative to this analysis and volume on each trendline for support and resistance, you are more likely to be accurate with your trades when considering the above analysis.
- Considering the current price action, and we're/have tested support on the top half between the middle and top trendline recently, we're likely to see it pump again and test the top trendline again soon.
2. Trading on the upper half between the middle and upper trendline.
- 2.1 It is Bullish when it trades on the upper half of the yellow line. It will create a Valley of Resistance against the above trendline.
- 2.2 It is Bearish when it trades on the upper half of the yellow line. It will create a Valley of Support against the below trendline.
3. Biden Executive Order PUMP (Crypto Regulation). These NEWS pumps are typically 90% to 100% dumps soon after. Especially when testing a trendline of resistance.
4. Ideally it turns this into support and develops its Valley of Resistance in the upper half of this section. If it goes below we could see it test 42k/43k.
'VOR' NOTES:
- Peak of resistance is reached when it tests the above trendline.
- Based on price action (Bullish or Bearish), you can set up these 3 trendlines with the respective 2 support/resistance lines anywhere so long as they fit. If the current price action is in a state of fear and bearish considering recent volatility, it will likely trade on the lower half between each line; vice versa applies to bullish. If it has recently had or has bullish price action, or there is greed in the market, it will trade on the top half between each trendline.
- Relative to this analysis and volume on each trendline for support and resistance, you are more likely to be accurate with your trades when considering the above analysis.
- Considering the current price action, and we're/have tested support on the top half between the middle and top trendline recently, we're likely to see it pump again and test the top trendline again soon.
Comment:
Just a quick chart update on the daily to see the Valley of Resistance once again presenting itself. We're looking at a BULL MARKET.
Uptrends and parabolic moves to the upside are coming soon.
Uptrends and parabolic moves to the upside are coming soon.
Comment:
On all timeframes, the descending wedge/equilibrium parabolically broke out upward as predicted. While the yellow mid support line in the valley of support/resistance is holding.
- Moving forward, with the support holding, it will proceed to test the top trendline. Doubters in the market might still have it be rejected again,
however, if it is rejected, it is likely to accumulate more between the middle and top trendline; above the yellow line.
- Moving forward, with the support holding, it will proceed to test the top trendline. Doubters in the market might still have it be rejected again,
however, if it is rejected, it is likely to accumulate more between the middle and top trendline; above the yellow line.
Comment:
The Bearish Barry's had the support break on the yellow trendline as mentioned above. My fault for not considering the FED releasing their 'Minutes' and accounting for market uncertainty.
- Holding support on April 1st just as it did on February 14th.
- FED minutes to be released had the market in uncertainty leading to SPY dumping and therefore BTC went past the yellow support line and tested the middle trendline.
- Testing the middle trendlines support as the FED's minutes are released. Following the release of the minutes, support is being held with it showing the possibility of a bounce.
- The FED minutes said they will be working on a $95bln balance sheet reduction. The clarity of said statement then leads to the uncertainty in the market being cleared up and support holding.
3 things can happen going forward:
1. What I deem to be most likely, is for the support to hold, it attempts to break upward again and is rejected to retest the middle trendline before rallying upward again.
2. It moves upward with a V-shaped retracement to retest the yellow line as a valley of resistance before breaking past it to test the top trendline in the coming days/week.
3. Dumping past the middle trendline and moving toward support on the yellow line, between the middle and bottom trendline.
- Holding support on April 1st just as it did on February 14th.
- FED minutes to be released had the market in uncertainty leading to SPY dumping and therefore BTC went past the yellow support line and tested the middle trendline.
- Testing the middle trendlines support as the FED's minutes are released. Following the release of the minutes, support is being held with it showing the possibility of a bounce.
- The FED minutes said they will be working on a $95bln balance sheet reduction. The clarity of said statement then leads to the uncertainty in the market being cleared up and support holding.
3 things can happen going forward:
1. What I deem to be most likely, is for the support to hold, it attempts to break upward again and is rejected to retest the middle trendline before rallying upward again.
2. It moves upward with a V-shaped retracement to retest the yellow line as a valley of resistance before breaking past it to test the top trendline in the coming days/week.
3. Dumping past the middle trendline and moving toward support on the yellow line, between the middle and bottom trendline.
Comment:
Decent support being held here during the 2nd day of the #bitcoin conference! BULLISH!
Comment:
45.5k Support did not hold.
- Again support didn't hold with strength. It may have a chance at a slow reversal and still hold and squeeze shorts above the line testing the yellow line between
the middle and top trendline. As shown by the white pathing arrow in the image.
- The other possibility is that it reaches the 40k yellow line between the middle
and the bottom trendline.
- If it doesn't establish a valley of support & resistance at the 40k yellow line, it could go down to retest the 2nd lowest low of 36k/37k.
- If support holds there, it continues to prove the Valley of Resistance theory correct. If it breaks below that, it discredits the theory
and could enter a further downtrend to lower market lows.
I can personally see it bottoming out at 37k/38k according to the fear and greed index needing to reach, according to the recent higher lows, a score of 20. The low could be 40k according to the charts support range being very strong around there, and 41 according to the bullish news and overall market optimism.
As for SPX, we'll need to see if the 200EMA support holds, which, it will if there is enough positive vibes in the market, which there aren't much of considering the FEDs QT and the releasing of the march inflation numbers in the coming days.
- Again support didn't hold with strength. It may have a chance at a slow reversal and still hold and squeeze shorts above the line testing the yellow line between
the middle and top trendline. As shown by the white pathing arrow in the image.
- The other possibility is that it reaches the 40k yellow line between the middle
and the bottom trendline.
- If it doesn't establish a valley of support & resistance at the 40k yellow line, it could go down to retest the 2nd lowest low of 36k/37k.
- If support holds there, it continues to prove the Valley of Resistance theory correct. If it breaks below that, it discredits the theory
and could enter a further downtrend to lower market lows.
I can personally see it bottoming out at 37k/38k according to the fear and greed index needing to reach, according to the recent higher lows, a score of 20. The low could be 40k according to the charts support range being very strong around there, and 41 according to the bullish news and overall market optimism.
As for SPX, we'll need to see if the 200EMA support holds, which, it will if there is enough positive vibes in the market, which there aren't much of considering the FEDs QT and the releasing of the march inflation numbers in the coming days.
Comment:
With both A2 and B2 proving that this accumulation and valley of support pattern is repeating, we are likely to see it trade sideways for around 7-13 days (count the candles relative to the 12 hr time frame).
- The 12hr, assuming it follows this line of reasoning, RSI and chart will go up a bit then it will dump and have a bearish cross-over into the oversold. (As stated in RSI.1)
- Finding support on the yellow line again, and pushing a bullish RSI/SMA cross-over into new territories. (As stated in RSI.2)
As drawn in the RSI/SMA indicator region, in blue, below the chart.
- The 12hr, assuming it follows this line of reasoning, RSI and chart will go up a bit then it will dump and have a bearish cross-over into the oversold. (As stated in RSI.1)
- Finding support on the yellow line again, and pushing a bullish RSI/SMA cross-over into new territories. (As stated in RSI.2)
As drawn in the RSI/SMA indicator region, in blue, below the chart.
Comment:
Turning middle trendline and 200EMA into support will be a challenge, it may fall down to retest the yellow support line between middle and bottom trendline.
We'll see..
Valley of Support and Resistance Theory is still being proven right here.
We'll see..
Valley of Support and Resistance Theory is still being proven right here.
Comment:
UPDATE:
Support on bottom trendline.
Assuming this follows like that last 2 times, we could see it move toward the yellow line, above. If so, it should establish its valley of resistance and then breakout in the upside.
All of this IF the equities market doesn't catastrophically dump again.
4-7 Days left for the pattern below to come to fuition.
Support on bottom trendline.
Assuming this follows like that last 2 times, we could see it move toward the yellow line, above. If so, it should establish its valley of resistance and then breakout in the upside.
All of this IF the equities market doesn't catastrophically dump again.
Comment:
Support needs to be found here for the BTC uptrend to continue.
It will probably going to keep testing support on the bottom line for a while before it pumps or dumps.
It will probably going to keep testing support on the bottom line for a while before it pumps or dumps.
When the weekend dump had a large number of us thinking it would bring us back down to test the 200EMA, it squeezed shorts up to 47,650!
Now that the RSI is indicating over-bought and the Cumulative Delta Volume indicator is suggesting an almost negligible, however, bearish divergence nonetheless, we may find it falling for a little bit to a new higher low.
In a perfect world, it's another squeeze coming, however, it's slightly bearish on the CDV indicator. Minor correction is imminent to continue the uptrend with more big moves in the coming days/weeks.
With the Fear & Greed index hitting 60, it's going to be scary for bulls as we might see some ambivalence/uncertain price action. The great side to this uncertainty, is that it can potentially push to a bullish squeeze and have even more FOMO pushing it to test 50k.