Good morning ladies and gentlemen and welcome back to the most volatile show on Earth...... The Bitcoin Show! I am your host Tim and I can see that this morning may not have been the most appetizing thing you could have woken up to if you are a bull that is. We are still holding onto 30k and that can be considered a win in my book. But over the course of this writing you may discover that we may see more tears before any sign of a reversal. I will discuss my reasoning and much more today in this analysis so go grab a friend and gather round.
First things first. We lost the support of much of my 4hr set up. We lost the 4hr 50 MA followed by the 4hr cloud (basically both failed at the same time) and we descended into the depths of Bitcoin prices of old. Its been literally ages since we crossed into 30k territory... Wait a min... Its only been 3 weeks since we crossed 30k for the first time. And we already retested the support. That dip On January 9th was what really cemented 30k's status as a solid support. It was also the start of the consolidation that ultimately broke down into the depths taking us just below 30k last night. Technically I consider 30k as still on the table as far as it being support but that could be more clear by the days end. Time will tell for sure.
We saw a pretty deep wick on the 4hr time frame a few candles ago. This wick took us below 30k into around the upper 28k territory. I know many panicked and sold when they saw this. It may not have been the worst decision someone could ever make. But as you can see you had an opportunity to recover some of the losses you incurred if you awaited the bounce after hitting the support below (30k) Instead of panicking every time the candles drop you need to learn to exhibit patience and you can take advantage of the mechanics of the charts. Nobody is perfect... Not even me :P But I can tell you that patience often is more rewarding than panicking.
So that deep wick saw a quick recovery following the dive to 28k territory. This tells me 28k (approximately) could act as support if and when the time comes. All this information is important and as a trader understanding market psychology is a good way to take advantage of the situation and rake in some profit. The deep wick signifies that the bears wanted us to lose the 30k support quite badly and they took us under with all their might. But that was not strong enough to kill the bulls yet. The bulls rallied and took us back above 30k which IMO is key support at the moment. If we do lose 30k Im thinking 28k is a likely landing spot but 24k looks pretty comfortable too. As a trader you should not be to discouraged at the prospect of being at 28k or 24k or even 2k. We are traders. We make money no matter where BTC is. So relax and stick to the plan...
After bouncing from 30k support we encountered the resistance brought to you by the infamous 200 MA (4hr). So after bouncing from the depths of 28k last night we may have our rebound quelled by some bears stealing our picnic baskets. That is classic trading 101. Support and resistance. If you can learn to identify support and resistance reliably on the chart than you can almost certainly make profit. Learning how to identify support and resistance is crucial to ones Fourier into the trading world. If you cannot do that you need more practice before you dive into the deep end. Paper trade (make fake trades) and keep up with them. Thats how I got started. Fake it til you make it!
Its Friday and the weekend is coming. This could be another reason for the bears to attack as traders tend to relax on the weekend (barring end of year 2020 when they seemed to work overtime during the weekend) The weekend is something I usually watch closely for a few reasons. I do like to occasionally trade when Im not swamped by the 9-5 and lifes lefts and rights. Im not exactly sure how Im keeping up with it all at this point. Just doing my best lol. Anyways if tradition returns and we see diminished volume over the weekend we should see a decline in the price of BTC. You know what that means for Monday dont you??? Gap time! I watch for the gaps to make sure if they are on the chart and I decide I want to play the gap I do the same thing every single time. I set a stop loss and hope for the best. If the gap fails to fill as expected that is what a stop loss is for folks. I win either way as I will buy back in after the dip if that is what happens. The risk/reward potential of the gap is too much for me to pass up. I like trading the gaps because the are a beacon of relaibility in a traditionally unreliable market. But you still need to set a stop loss folks. The gaps do not always fill right away. For instance we still have a 2 year old gap on the chart. So keep that in mind.
Wrapping things up this morning I drew the daily 50 MA on the chart. We see how it provided support the first test of the 50 MA since October of 2020. The reason I do this is the daily 50 MA is finally getting back into the mix of the candles. The daily 50 MA hasnt been a factor since October of last year. So it hasnt really played a big part in my daily analysis since that time. We have just been too far above it for it to play a role in prices. Now though is a different ball game. We have dipped far enough to bring the daily 50 MA back into the mix. I will start sharing more daily charts from this point forward to give you all a bit of variety and also since the candles are finally not so far above my trading set up that it makes no difference that I have my traditional MA's I normally use every day as the candles are up in space while the MA's I use are still stuck in the stratosphere. But since the candles are on the down hill slide from the looks of it I can utilize the daily a bit more.
Like it or not the recent run to 42k may have been all she wrote for this pump. Im not clairvoyant but the bears are sure showing signs that they are not going to relent. But there are some extenuating circumstances involved that cannot necessarily be tracked with an indicator. Things like the stimulus possibly coming in the next few months along with a new president in the US. All of these could have an effect on BTC. Id like to think BTC is stronger than that but its not BTC... Its the weak hands. With yesterdays fud (Janet so and so complaining about how amazing BTC is compared to the trash USD) To me it sounds like she is being anti BTC because the US dollar simply cannot compete with the likes of Bitcoin. Sure the US dollar is the reserve currency of the world. But that doesnt mean its better than BTC. The actual mechanics behind the US dollar make Bitcoin look like a brilliant discovery. But to be fair monopoly money is more rare than the US dollar and the mechanics of supply and demand suggest that the higher the supply the less the demand and that in turn causes the price to drop. Simple supply and demand. The US cant stop Bitcoin. They can try. But they will fail. So dont fret. Be patient and believe in the brilliance of Satoshi Nakamoto. I hope you all have a great Friday! Make good choices with your investments folks. No need to ignore logic to chase a little profit. And always remember folks WTFDIK????
TLDR: Bulls wont wake up. Bears are all awake. LOL. For now we are holding 30k but that could be fleeting especially since the weekend is coming and we may or may not see a decline due to less volume. Set a stop loss if you are going to try and long on a down trend. The way I trade the down trends is simply go into stable coin til the reversal happens. Reenter a trade and rinse and repeat.
First things first. We lost the support of much of my 4hr set up. We lost the 4hr 50 MA followed by the 4hr cloud (basically both failed at the same time) and we descended into the depths of Bitcoin prices of old. Its been literally ages since we crossed into 30k territory... Wait a min... Its only been 3 weeks since we crossed 30k for the first time. And we already retested the support. That dip On January 9th was what really cemented 30k's status as a solid support. It was also the start of the consolidation that ultimately broke down into the depths taking us just below 30k last night. Technically I consider 30k as still on the table as far as it being support but that could be more clear by the days end. Time will tell for sure.
We saw a pretty deep wick on the 4hr time frame a few candles ago. This wick took us below 30k into around the upper 28k territory. I know many panicked and sold when they saw this. It may not have been the worst decision someone could ever make. But as you can see you had an opportunity to recover some of the losses you incurred if you awaited the bounce after hitting the support below (30k) Instead of panicking every time the candles drop you need to learn to exhibit patience and you can take advantage of the mechanics of the charts. Nobody is perfect... Not even me :P But I can tell you that patience often is more rewarding than panicking.
So that deep wick saw a quick recovery following the dive to 28k territory. This tells me 28k (approximately) could act as support if and when the time comes. All this information is important and as a trader understanding market psychology is a good way to take advantage of the situation and rake in some profit. The deep wick signifies that the bears wanted us to lose the 30k support quite badly and they took us under with all their might. But that was not strong enough to kill the bulls yet. The bulls rallied and took us back above 30k which IMO is key support at the moment. If we do lose 30k Im thinking 28k is a likely landing spot but 24k looks pretty comfortable too. As a trader you should not be to discouraged at the prospect of being at 28k or 24k or even 2k. We are traders. We make money no matter where BTC is. So relax and stick to the plan...
After bouncing from 30k support we encountered the resistance brought to you by the infamous 200 MA (4hr). So after bouncing from the depths of 28k last night we may have our rebound quelled by some bears stealing our picnic baskets. That is classic trading 101. Support and resistance. If you can learn to identify support and resistance reliably on the chart than you can almost certainly make profit. Learning how to identify support and resistance is crucial to ones Fourier into the trading world. If you cannot do that you need more practice before you dive into the deep end. Paper trade (make fake trades) and keep up with them. Thats how I got started. Fake it til you make it!
Its Friday and the weekend is coming. This could be another reason for the bears to attack as traders tend to relax on the weekend (barring end of year 2020 when they seemed to work overtime during the weekend) The weekend is something I usually watch closely for a few reasons. I do like to occasionally trade when Im not swamped by the 9-5 and lifes lefts and rights. Im not exactly sure how Im keeping up with it all at this point. Just doing my best lol. Anyways if tradition returns and we see diminished volume over the weekend we should see a decline in the price of BTC. You know what that means for Monday dont you??? Gap time! I watch for the gaps to make sure if they are on the chart and I decide I want to play the gap I do the same thing every single time. I set a stop loss and hope for the best. If the gap fails to fill as expected that is what a stop loss is for folks. I win either way as I will buy back in after the dip if that is what happens. The risk/reward potential of the gap is too much for me to pass up. I like trading the gaps because the are a beacon of relaibility in a traditionally unreliable market. But you still need to set a stop loss folks. The gaps do not always fill right away. For instance we still have a 2 year old gap on the chart. So keep that in mind.
Wrapping things up this morning I drew the daily 50 MA on the chart. We see how it provided support the first test of the 50 MA since October of 2020. The reason I do this is the daily 50 MA is finally getting back into the mix of the candles. The daily 50 MA hasnt been a factor since October of last year. So it hasnt really played a big part in my daily analysis since that time. We have just been too far above it for it to play a role in prices. Now though is a different ball game. We have dipped far enough to bring the daily 50 MA back into the mix. I will start sharing more daily charts from this point forward to give you all a bit of variety and also since the candles are finally not so far above my trading set up that it makes no difference that I have my traditional MA's I normally use every day as the candles are up in space while the MA's I use are still stuck in the stratosphere. But since the candles are on the down hill slide from the looks of it I can utilize the daily a bit more.
Like it or not the recent run to 42k may have been all she wrote for this pump. Im not clairvoyant but the bears are sure showing signs that they are not going to relent. But there are some extenuating circumstances involved that cannot necessarily be tracked with an indicator. Things like the stimulus possibly coming in the next few months along with a new president in the US. All of these could have an effect on BTC. Id like to think BTC is stronger than that but its not BTC... Its the weak hands. With yesterdays fud (Janet so and so complaining about how amazing BTC is compared to the trash USD) To me it sounds like she is being anti BTC because the US dollar simply cannot compete with the likes of Bitcoin. Sure the US dollar is the reserve currency of the world. But that doesnt mean its better than BTC. The actual mechanics behind the US dollar make Bitcoin look like a brilliant discovery. But to be fair monopoly money is more rare than the US dollar and the mechanics of supply and demand suggest that the higher the supply the less the demand and that in turn causes the price to drop. Simple supply and demand. The US cant stop Bitcoin. They can try. But they will fail. So dont fret. Be patient and believe in the brilliance of Satoshi Nakamoto. I hope you all have a great Friday! Make good choices with your investments folks. No need to ignore logic to chase a little profit. And always remember folks WTFDIK????
TLDR: Bulls wont wake up. Bears are all awake. LOL. For now we are holding 30k but that could be fleeting especially since the weekend is coming and we may or may not see a decline due to less volume. Set a stop loss if you are going to try and long on a down trend. The way I trade the down trends is simply go into stable coin til the reversal happens. Reenter a trade and rinse and repeat.