Good morning again all you awesome Bitcoin enthusiasts and welcome back to my daily look into the world of Bitcoin. Today I have the 4hr time frame pulled up (believe it or not :) ) and I see that we lost some support yesterday. We also seemingly regained some support as well. But it looks a bit fleeting if you ask me... As we sit just above 18k will we rebound to create that higher high all traders want to see? Lets take a look at the chart and see what we can see.
I know the vets that saw the previous pumps (2017 and 2019 and 2020) followed by a dump we are all used to the wild movement. I joined the Bitcoin community November of 2017 and experienced the bull run for a matter of a few weeks. Then we dumped hard. That was all I needed. I was hooked. I stuck it out through 2018 through the entire bear market and finally when 2019 showed up we spiked to 14k. I remember I had just started making charts (April fools day 2019) and it was nice to start making charts right at the beginning of the pump. The whole reason I bring this up is when we pumped to 20k back in 2017 we experienced an entire year (maybe longer) of bearish charts. Will that occur again? Will we have a bear year 2021?
There are differences between 2017 and 2020. There was no halving in 2017. There was a halving in 2020. We broke a trend line that was hindering the bulls for approximately 2.5 years. Paypal joined the crypto game (custodial). Im not a huge fan of custodial but Paypal is a huge company and the fact they gave in and started offering BTC sort of shows me the idea that if you cant beat em, join em. Banks across the US are claiming BTC will rise next year. Citibank says BTC will be over 300k by next Xmas. I cant promise that. I wont promise that. But this shows you a lot. The same banks that refused to allow us to buy BTC 2 years ago now are offering investment advice that pushed BTC to investors. Fidelity offers BTC now! Fidelity is giant. Not to mention Grayscale is buying up BTC by the truck full. 2017 was largely pumped due to the emergence of many alts.
That is why people refer to it as "alt season" Coins like ADA went up over 1000%. The institutional investors just werent there in 2017. They are here now. And they are increasing. Just think of it like this. These institutions are willing to buy BTC up above 15k. That is bold. But maybe they know something we dont? Or perhaps they are going to DCA the crap out of it? DCA is a decent strategy. I could go on all day about this stuff and I wish I could. But lets take a look at the 4hr chart and see what is going on.
The support I drew on the chart looks like it is working out. We dumped below is which made it resistance. You can clearly see the candles were rejected upon their advances to retake the lost support. The thing is on the way up we entered the 4hr cloud once again. So we do have some support just below us. But which is the path of least resistance? The support/resistance (18600) which is above us or the bottom border of the 4hr cloud? Only time will tell for sure. In the next 4-12 hrs we will know. So be patient. Set a stop loss! If we can beat 18600 that will be great. But the bulls will still have their work cut out for them. The 4hr 50 MA is right above that then the top border of the cloud. The bulls can certainly do it, but will they do it?
I am sorry I went on so long about the past but TA involves more than what is directly in front of you on the current charts. Looking into the past can educate you. Bitcoin doesnt always repeat trends but you can still learn a lot from analyzing old charts. Especially since you can see the results of a certain pattern or trend right in front of you. 2020 may have sucked for the majority of people in the world but Bitcoin sure has been the exception to the rule. Stocks have done well too! Oil on the other hand. I remember oil dropped dangerously low this year. I work in oilfield and the hit really effected my job. My hours were cut and layoffs had to happen :( So yes 2020 has been awful in that respect. But the supplimental income I get from trading and my course etc more than makes up for the slowdown at work. So for that I thank you Bitcoin! I hope you all have a great day! Make good choices yall. No need to be a hero and trade without a stop loss. Leave that for the birds. And always remember the golden rule on my analysis.... WTFDIK???
TLDR: Bears and bulls have locked horns and paws. Lets see who comes out on top. Set a stop loss. I never mention that. :P
I know the vets that saw the previous pumps (2017 and 2019 and 2020) followed by a dump we are all used to the wild movement. I joined the Bitcoin community November of 2017 and experienced the bull run for a matter of a few weeks. Then we dumped hard. That was all I needed. I was hooked. I stuck it out through 2018 through the entire bear market and finally when 2019 showed up we spiked to 14k. I remember I had just started making charts (April fools day 2019) and it was nice to start making charts right at the beginning of the pump. The whole reason I bring this up is when we pumped to 20k back in 2017 we experienced an entire year (maybe longer) of bearish charts. Will that occur again? Will we have a bear year 2021?
There are differences between 2017 and 2020. There was no halving in 2017. There was a halving in 2020. We broke a trend line that was hindering the bulls for approximately 2.5 years. Paypal joined the crypto game (custodial). Im not a huge fan of custodial but Paypal is a huge company and the fact they gave in and started offering BTC sort of shows me the idea that if you cant beat em, join em. Banks across the US are claiming BTC will rise next year. Citibank says BTC will be over 300k by next Xmas. I cant promise that. I wont promise that. But this shows you a lot. The same banks that refused to allow us to buy BTC 2 years ago now are offering investment advice that pushed BTC to investors. Fidelity offers BTC now! Fidelity is giant. Not to mention Grayscale is buying up BTC by the truck full. 2017 was largely pumped due to the emergence of many alts.
That is why people refer to it as "alt season" Coins like ADA went up over 1000%. The institutional investors just werent there in 2017. They are here now. And they are increasing. Just think of it like this. These institutions are willing to buy BTC up above 15k. That is bold. But maybe they know something we dont? Or perhaps they are going to DCA the crap out of it? DCA is a decent strategy. I could go on all day about this stuff and I wish I could. But lets take a look at the 4hr chart and see what is going on.
The support I drew on the chart looks like it is working out. We dumped below is which made it resistance. You can clearly see the candles were rejected upon their advances to retake the lost support. The thing is on the way up we entered the 4hr cloud once again. So we do have some support just below us. But which is the path of least resistance? The support/resistance (18600) which is above us or the bottom border of the 4hr cloud? Only time will tell for sure. In the next 4-12 hrs we will know. So be patient. Set a stop loss! If we can beat 18600 that will be great. But the bulls will still have their work cut out for them. The 4hr 50 MA is right above that then the top border of the cloud. The bulls can certainly do it, but will they do it?
I am sorry I went on so long about the past but TA involves more than what is directly in front of you on the current charts. Looking into the past can educate you. Bitcoin doesnt always repeat trends but you can still learn a lot from analyzing old charts. Especially since you can see the results of a certain pattern or trend right in front of you. 2020 may have sucked for the majority of people in the world but Bitcoin sure has been the exception to the rule. Stocks have done well too! Oil on the other hand. I remember oil dropped dangerously low this year. I work in oilfield and the hit really effected my job. My hours were cut and layoffs had to happen :( So yes 2020 has been awful in that respect. But the supplimental income I get from trading and my course etc more than makes up for the slowdown at work. So for that I thank you Bitcoin! I hope you all have a great day! Make good choices yall. No need to be a hero and trade without a stop loss. Leave that for the birds. And always remember the golden rule on my analysis.... WTFDIK???
TLDR: Bears and bulls have locked horns and paws. Lets see who comes out on top. Set a stop loss. I never mention that. :P