Bitcoin - You've got this all wrong - Important!

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WHAT'S BTC DOING NOW?
It has been a few days since BTC hit resistance and was not able to go over it, it has been on a range between $9200 and $9500. A big move is bound to come soon, up or down, but it is hard to know in which direction since both sides have an equal amount of pressure building up. In spots like this is when whales usually dump or pump hard, it will be very lucrative to go in either direction. So far algos have been eating stop losses up and down, so let's continue to stay out and just watch.

This is the tight range BTC has been in.

Also here you can see BTC is having a tough exiting resistance.

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THE TREND: Neutral / Sideways
THE OUTLOOK: More downward movement expected.

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After staying above the 50MA in this small time frame since January the 20th, we are now under it. We'll continue to watch. We are yet to close under that 23.6% retracement line.

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This is on the 4 hour chart, it remains to be seen if we'll stay above the 50 MA. Why are we looking at this small time frame? Simple to get clues about intent, these are leading measures, many small clues make up the big picture.

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The last time BTC went toe to toe with this resistance line it lost big (look at the circle to the left.) This time we do have other factors in play but here we are fighting the same battle again (the circle to the right.) Best thing to do is to stay out of this mess and wait for clarity. We can always jump in when it goes up or down but not while it is deciding.

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The 4 hour chart is your battleground. BTC has been holding the the 23.6% retracement line since the 28th of January, it has not closed below it once. BTC is now a little below that line and falling under the 50MA as well. If BTC closes 3 or more candles under the 50MA it could lead to a drop to the trend line. A drop to the green trend line below the white resistance line will bring up the odds of going lower.

Comment:

9:45 AM EST. BTC has been consistently losing the 50MA on a few time frames. Here on the 4 hour chart we've closed 1 candle under it and we're about to close the 2nd one in about one hour. We are more than likely going to land on the green trend line. We have to stay on it to keep that upwards momentum.

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Taking yet another shot at resistance.

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Very hopeful territory, we have the swing low and working on a swing high that may land right on the old resistance or above (which will make it support.) A really safe entry point is being generated. To be clear, we are still just watching.

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What are we looking for? Three candles closing above support or on decisive one.

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What's being generated right now is a fair size candle, now, the game is long and it is best played when you play it safe. Our number one objective is not to trade every few days but to find safe entry points, which translates to low risk. We just got out at $9100 with good profits and we are not in a rush to give back our profits. We are not going back in until it is confirmed that we are staying above the new support.

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KEEP LIKING THIS IDEA AND I WILL UPDATE AS LONG AS IT REMAIN RELEVANT.

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The first fair size candle has closed above the old resistance line which is now a support line. The second candle is staying above the support line but it has a long way to go until tomorrow. The 50/200MA golden cross is looking healthy and a lot of force is truly building beneath BTC, but we can't jump in now because we do not yet have confirmation. Jumping in now is falling into old habits of going in with the hope that it goes up. This is a business transaction, If we get confirmation then we go in. Price is secondary to a safe entry point.

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We may continue to go up and down On that daily candle, now that you know what confirmation is, you are seeing why it is important to wait for it. Traders get in early when they see green, set a tight stop loss get taken out and they do this over and over again. Change your approach, have some discipline and patience you’ll have more money when the safe bet arrives.

Comment:

BTC is looking healthy, a few days back we hit the 200MA Resistance the 1 day chart (that's when we took our money out) and it dropped for a few days, then it went up to test resistance and it has gone over with 2 candles for now. The third candle will confirm that we are indeed over resistance at which point all we are waiting for is the pull back to jump in. Risk from 1 to no more than 5% percent of your working capital. I am finishing a crypto position size calculator that will do all of this math for you.