Hey! thank you for tuning in for my first analysis, as I start to do this I hope to learn more and progressively hone in on my analysis so thank you for taking the time to read this. ` Rock
- This is by no means Financial advice and is simply my collection of thoughts and ideas as I may see on a day to day basis. I have only been in the trading space for about 2-3 years now and continue to learn every single day, I hope you can join me on my journey as I continue to grow and be my best self. Thank you very much, Rock
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Technical Analysis:
Bitcoin/Crypto
- As I expected, bitcoin broke out above the falling wedge it was in and broke out to the upside perfectly with it's massive seemingly overnight rally to break cleanly above 39k and since then has shown progressive buying pressure avoiding again any major retracements or rejections.
- Considering the current chart, if BTC can manage to keep above 44k for a solid period without getting pushed down by bears then there is a very good shot at the rally continuing from that point, buying pressure has also managed to keep steady and sustained without facing any major reversals.
- However with this in mind if Bitcoin can't sustain enough buying pressure to break above 44k or the market sentiment shifts back to low what could follow likely would be a short reversal before we see a real move back to the upside.
Fear and Greed Index: Currently the BTC index sits at a cool 48 with a 'neutral' signaling a shift from yesterday's index of 'Fear'. The market is gaining more confidence in Bitcoin as well as cryptocurrency's detachment from the market.
Personal Opinion: As I've been watching crypto these past two weeks I definitely noticed the attachment bitcoin held to the major Index's mostly following in tandem with the Dow Jones' major tech selloff. However the weekend along with Bitcoin's micro uptrend at towards the end of the wedge led perfectly into the weekend, with the rally starting Friday evening. I was personally expecting this as whale's are more likely to enter the market when there isn't as much worry of crypto being influenced by the market, thus this weekend posed the perfect opportunity for the Bull's to come in and start the rally, thus setting and creating enough space between bitcoin's current 'bottom' for the crypto to be detached enough to not be significantly influenced by the regular market.
If you don't follow basically here it is: During the week if the Dow we're to fall, bitcoin too would do the same, and vice versa. This thus means that it would have been hard for bitcoin to detach from the market without this weekend run and the whales entering. The Smart Money moves when it's best and it has the most influence. In this case they have boosted bitcoin up to the point where even if the Dow tomorrow were to fall or rise, bitcoin may, but the downtrend would bring it nowhere close to the weekly low now being as the distance is far more significant now, thus it now would take a more drastic move for bitcoin to reverse back to where it previously was the beginning of February. The Smart Money has thus made it challenging for Bitcoin to now be connected and influenced by the Stock Market as it had been for the majority of it's low.
- With this in mind it also incentivizes institutions to have more confidence in Bitcoin's ability to detach from the market's influence and lower's the adverse-risk of bitcoin moving in Tandem with the market.
As noted in a Wall Street Journal Article written at the start of the major selloff:
Does Bitcoin follow stock market?
"One measure of how bitcoin has become more entwined with markets: The cryptocurrency is near its highest correlation with the stock market since September 2020, according to Kaiko. That means when the stock market goes down, so does bitcoin." 'Bitcoin Price Falls Below $35,000 in Tandem With Stock Selloff' (Caitlin Ostroff)
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Geopolitics:
The main issue going around currently is the potential invasion into Ukraine on behalf of Russia. With tension mounting on both sides between Russia and the West, the Kremlin is keeping persistent on it's demands for Ukraine with the most pertinent one being that NATO and the United States guarantee to never admit Ukraine/ other ex-Soviet nations as members and that alliance troop deployments in other soviet bloc countries be rolled back.
- To put it bluntly as a start: NATO and the United States will not give in to Russia's demand on not accepting Ukraine, this itself keeps a strain on negotiations between the countries
Will there be an invasion? The answer is difficult, but personally: Likely not.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has had a tendency to resort to Russia's military power as a tool for foreign policy and has often resorted to the military to get what he wants.
French President Emmanuel Macron met with Putin today in Moscow in hopes of deescalating the rising tensions with Putin with the meeting being an important one however with more way still to be made.
According to the article by The Guardian: "Moscow has also played down expectations ahead of the talks. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, described Macron’s visit as “very important” but said the situation was “too complex to expect a decisive breakthrough after just one meeting”. He said the US and its allies continued to ignore Russia’s security demands, describing the atmosphere as tense." Macron plays down expectations as he arrives for Ukraine talks with Putin – as it happened (Jennifer Rankin)
While tensions are still lurking about this is a pivotal moment for Macron as he is seen as the only European Leader who is now being looked at as a leader in similar stature to Angela Merkel and quite possible the only European Politician who is capable of talking on the same level as Putin. This isn't much but it does pose some good news as Europe continues to try to de-escalate the situation among the rising tensions.
Also to Note: If Russia is to attack it likely wouldn't do it till the Olympics end, doing so would overshadow China's special moment and trigger a global security crisis. Being as Chinese President Xi Jinping has spent billions to show off the nation's superpower status Putin isn't likely to ruin the party of someone he considers to be a close friend as he has noted before and is clear by his invitation to the opening of the Olympics. While it is possible, it wouldn't be very reasonable to attack Ukraine. Such would put Russia in a corner to put it bluntly, essentially with all of the sanctions that would be imposed on it alongside making an enemy of the world essentially. Such would result in a dramatic effect on it's economy but would definitely create a mass market sell-off if Russia we're to invade Ukraine.
Closing Notes: If you've made it this far I give you my biggest and most sincerest thank you. I really gave it my best for this review although I would prefer to add more detail but being as this is simply a collection of my thoughts and ideas, I'll leave it here for now and see where this ship goes. But without a doubt Crypto has the utmost brightest future. I feel incredibly blessed that I have the opportunity to share the start of the Great Reset with all of you guys, alongside the chance to see all of the amazing achievements and new developments that Crypto continues to create on a daily basis. This is truly the start of a new age. An age where it's possible for anybody to become Successful.
Thank you. And here's to the start of a brighter future. For not only one. But for everyone. ~ Rock
- This is by no means Financial advice and is simply my collection of thoughts and ideas as I may see on a day to day basis. I have only been in the trading space for about 2-3 years now and continue to learn every single day, I hope you can join me on my journey as I continue to grow and be my best self. Thank you very much, Rock
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Technical Analysis:
Bitcoin/Crypto
- As I expected, bitcoin broke out above the falling wedge it was in and broke out to the upside perfectly with it's massive seemingly overnight rally to break cleanly above 39k and since then has shown progressive buying pressure avoiding again any major retracements or rejections.
- Considering the current chart, if BTC can manage to keep above 44k for a solid period without getting pushed down by bears then there is a very good shot at the rally continuing from that point, buying pressure has also managed to keep steady and sustained without facing any major reversals.
- However with this in mind if Bitcoin can't sustain enough buying pressure to break above 44k or the market sentiment shifts back to low what could follow likely would be a short reversal before we see a real move back to the upside.
Fear and Greed Index: Currently the BTC index sits at a cool 48 with a 'neutral' signaling a shift from yesterday's index of 'Fear'. The market is gaining more confidence in Bitcoin as well as cryptocurrency's detachment from the market.
Personal Opinion: As I've been watching crypto these past two weeks I definitely noticed the attachment bitcoin held to the major Index's mostly following in tandem with the Dow Jones' major tech selloff. However the weekend along with Bitcoin's micro uptrend at towards the end of the wedge led perfectly into the weekend, with the rally starting Friday evening. I was personally expecting this as whale's are more likely to enter the market when there isn't as much worry of crypto being influenced by the market, thus this weekend posed the perfect opportunity for the Bull's to come in and start the rally, thus setting and creating enough space between bitcoin's current 'bottom' for the crypto to be detached enough to not be significantly influenced by the regular market.
If you don't follow basically here it is: During the week if the Dow we're to fall, bitcoin too would do the same, and vice versa. This thus means that it would have been hard for bitcoin to detach from the market without this weekend run and the whales entering. The Smart Money moves when it's best and it has the most influence. In this case they have boosted bitcoin up to the point where even if the Dow tomorrow were to fall or rise, bitcoin may, but the downtrend would bring it nowhere close to the weekly low now being as the distance is far more significant now, thus it now would take a more drastic move for bitcoin to reverse back to where it previously was the beginning of February. The Smart Money has thus made it challenging for Bitcoin to now be connected and influenced by the Stock Market as it had been for the majority of it's low.
- With this in mind it also incentivizes institutions to have more confidence in Bitcoin's ability to detach from the market's influence and lower's the adverse-risk of bitcoin moving in Tandem with the market.
As noted in a Wall Street Journal Article written at the start of the major selloff:
Does Bitcoin follow stock market?
"One measure of how bitcoin has become more entwined with markets: The cryptocurrency is near its highest correlation with the stock market since September 2020, according to Kaiko. That means when the stock market goes down, so does bitcoin." 'Bitcoin Price Falls Below $35,000 in Tandem With Stock Selloff' (Caitlin Ostroff)
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Geopolitics:
The main issue going around currently is the potential invasion into Ukraine on behalf of Russia. With tension mounting on both sides between Russia and the West, the Kremlin is keeping persistent on it's demands for Ukraine with the most pertinent one being that NATO and the United States guarantee to never admit Ukraine/ other ex-Soviet nations as members and that alliance troop deployments in other soviet bloc countries be rolled back.
- To put it bluntly as a start: NATO and the United States will not give in to Russia's demand on not accepting Ukraine, this itself keeps a strain on negotiations between the countries
Will there be an invasion? The answer is difficult, but personally: Likely not.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has had a tendency to resort to Russia's military power as a tool for foreign policy and has often resorted to the military to get what he wants.
French President Emmanuel Macron met with Putin today in Moscow in hopes of deescalating the rising tensions with Putin with the meeting being an important one however with more way still to be made.
According to the article by The Guardian: "Moscow has also played down expectations ahead of the talks. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, described Macron’s visit as “very important” but said the situation was “too complex to expect a decisive breakthrough after just one meeting”. He said the US and its allies continued to ignore Russia’s security demands, describing the atmosphere as tense." Macron plays down expectations as he arrives for Ukraine talks with Putin – as it happened (Jennifer Rankin)
While tensions are still lurking about this is a pivotal moment for Macron as he is seen as the only European Leader who is now being looked at as a leader in similar stature to Angela Merkel and quite possible the only European Politician who is capable of talking on the same level as Putin. This isn't much but it does pose some good news as Europe continues to try to de-escalate the situation among the rising tensions.
Also to Note: If Russia is to attack it likely wouldn't do it till the Olympics end, doing so would overshadow China's special moment and trigger a global security crisis. Being as Chinese President Xi Jinping has spent billions to show off the nation's superpower status Putin isn't likely to ruin the party of someone he considers to be a close friend as he has noted before and is clear by his invitation to the opening of the Olympics. While it is possible, it wouldn't be very reasonable to attack Ukraine. Such would put Russia in a corner to put it bluntly, essentially with all of the sanctions that would be imposed on it alongside making an enemy of the world essentially. Such would result in a dramatic effect on it's economy but would definitely create a mass market sell-off if Russia we're to invade Ukraine.
Closing Notes: If you've made it this far I give you my biggest and most sincerest thank you. I really gave it my best for this review although I would prefer to add more detail but being as this is simply a collection of my thoughts and ideas, I'll leave it here for now and see where this ship goes. But without a doubt Crypto has the utmost brightest future. I feel incredibly blessed that I have the opportunity to share the start of the Great Reset with all of you guys, alongside the chance to see all of the amazing achievements and new developments that Crypto continues to create on a daily basis. This is truly the start of a new age. An age where it's possible for anybody to become Successful.
Thank you. And here's to the start of a brighter future. For not only one. But for everyone. ~ Rock