I would prefer to start with the big picture, which is key.
- Globally we are in a bear market, as much as it may be desirable, but we are still technically seeing it now - a Bear Flag.
- After the last significant move down (from the 31.600 level, to 17.600) we made a pullback into the Fib 50 zone.
On the daily chart, a price move even lower to around 21.800-21.200 seems more expected.
But what is Bitcoin more dependent on right now? Yes, of course on the S&P500 Index (SPY).
So, I suggest we take a look at the big picture on the SPY:
SPY is also globally in a bear market.
Over the last 3-4 trading sessions we saw significant growth and got close to the technical resistance levels.
It is also worth noting that we are decently overbought.
That means that in the next few days we should see either a pullback (to the 400 zone) or a range in SPY.
As you can see from the chart, bitcoin is much weaker than SPY now, which gives me a reason to think that if SPY moves down, we will see a significant reaction in bitcoin, which will allow us to come to the possible support levels - 21.800-21.200.
Looking at the hourly chart of Bitcoin, we should indicate that we are at the level of previous supports as well as Fib 50.
I have drawn PRIMARY three scenarios for further movement, which are directly dependent on market (SPY) behavior.
1) If SPY makes a Gap Down today and tries to get back into the highs. Most likely the price will be able to get above 22.700. (but will still go lower in the future).
2) SPY will go lower today, but it will not be an aggressive move down, but a range formation. Then the price is likely to go down to 22.200.
3) We will see an aggressive downward movement in SPY, then I expect Bitcoin around the key level of 22.000-22.200.
What seems more likely to me?
I expect a move down to the 22.000-22.250 levels.
But it might take a couple of days.
- Globally we are in a bear market, as much as it may be desirable, but we are still technically seeing it now - a Bear Flag.
- After the last significant move down (from the 31.600 level, to 17.600) we made a pullback into the Fib 50 zone.
On the daily chart, a price move even lower to around 21.800-21.200 seems more expected.
But what is Bitcoin more dependent on right now? Yes, of course on the S&P500 Index (SPY).
So, I suggest we take a look at the big picture on the SPY:
SPY is also globally in a bear market.
Over the last 3-4 trading sessions we saw significant growth and got close to the technical resistance levels.
It is also worth noting that we are decently overbought.
That means that in the next few days we should see either a pullback (to the 400 zone) or a range in SPY.
As you can see from the chart, bitcoin is much weaker than SPY now, which gives me a reason to think that if SPY moves down, we will see a significant reaction in bitcoin, which will allow us to come to the possible support levels - 21.800-21.200.
Looking at the hourly chart of Bitcoin, we should indicate that we are at the level of previous supports as well as Fib 50.
I have drawn PRIMARY three scenarios for further movement, which are directly dependent on market (SPY) behavior.
1) If SPY makes a Gap Down today and tries to get back into the highs. Most likely the price will be able to get above 22.700. (but will still go lower in the future).
2) SPY will go lower today, but it will not be an aggressive move down, but a range formation. Then the price is likely to go down to 22.200.
3) We will see an aggressive downward movement in SPY, then I expect Bitcoin around the key level of 22.000-22.200.
What seems more likely to me?
I expect a move down to the 22.000-22.250 levels.
But it might take a couple of days.