BTC trending

Hello Everyone,
I hope you all enjoyed the time with your families.
I apologise for being absent. I took some holidays during Christmas to spend time with my family.
Now looking at BTC...There have been few excellent opportunities to capitulate in the past days, with BTC trading in a range with 46000 and 52000 as the main boundaries of the rectangle pattern.
How do I trade the rectangle?
Depending on the momentum oscillator, I either buy on support and sell at resistance OR (safest option) wait for a break out from the resistance or support and ride the impulse wave.
I explained in the previous posts that from an Elliott Wave theory point of few there are different possible counting...either we are forming a rising triangle (my view), or this retracement was wave 1 of wave C, which will complete the expanded flat bringing us likely down to 21k (less plausible hypothesis).
Now without speculating on the medium-long term, if we look at different indicators, we can appreciate that the scale leans towards a possible retest of 57-58 k in the medium-short term.
BTC is oversold in basically all the timeframe up to the weekly frame with the stoch RSI of 4h, 12h and weekly flipping bullish.
As you can appreciate, the different Moving averages and VWAP are providing a cluster of support and resistance in this area, with the VWAP from the low (June) and the 52 Week VWMA providing strong support and the VWAP from the Low (July) and the 200 Day MA providing resistance. Considering the oscillator, we can speculate that there are higher probabilities of a break out above the 52k level regaining a bullish momentum to retest the 52k. This is clearly defining the current trading range.
If we pay attention to the weekly chart, I expect a run to 66k starting soon. However, I am waiting for the price to confirm before committing.
If we apply some volume analysis, it is clear that BTC has been ranging for the last year (Accumulation) between 29k and 70k. The volume presents different interesting characteristics, with volume reaching a climax at the bottom in May and drying throughout June - July, which is a significant reversal sign as sellers have been dissipated. The bounce started with some volume but quickly drying suggesting this to be a wave B (phoney) due to the lack of volume strength backing the price action. Similarly, the volume has not increased violently on wave C down which suggests that this is not the start of a multi-year Bear market but only a wave part of a correction.
Considering this, I expect another 2 waves in the medium term, carrying us to February. One wave to retest the 69k and another wave down correcting this bounce which will sign the end of the correction and the start of the last bull run before the bear market.
Lastly, looking at BTC, there is a possible price pattern formation on this support.
Either double bottom or Adam and eve, depending on the steepness of this bounce, either wave this should unfold in a significant bounce to 57k.
To conclude, always remember that each of us has strategies and Bias. The most important part of a trade is the Stop Loss. This protects your capital from unexpected moves and your mistakes. No trader is always right, so cover your asses with a stop loss, better be safe than sorry.
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