What if Bitcoin is making a very sneaky redistribution range?
Just another quick what if scenario about this rally. I will work more on this later. There are a number of things that makes me think of this. I can share more later.
I know many people are betting on accumulation right now. That's one of the reasons I'm still spending time on scenarios that we go higher. Those smart traders / investors will also change their perspective when they see Bitcoin is giving up.
I've also published a few ideas about accumulation before this madness. But I don't like what I see atm.
Redistribution comes in many shapes. They can look like accumulation like in this case (possibly) or they can look like reaccumulation after a mark up.
I know many people are betting on accumulation right now. That's one of the reasons I'm still spending time on scenarios that we go higher. Those smart traders / investors will also change their perspective when they see Bitcoin is giving up.
I've also published a few ideas about accumulation before this madness. But I don't like what I see atm.
Redistribution comes in many shapes. They can look like accumulation like in this case (possibly) or they can look like reaccumulation after a mark up.
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This is the thing about redistribution. Especially UTAD. Volatile but up only. Making the shorters feel depressed. Eliminate the weak ones.
You can think the path I drew is easy to short in hindsight but it's definitely not.
Because 99% of traders won't wait until it makes a huge top and it breaks down. Not being in a trade is really hard.
You can think the path I drew is easy to short in hindsight but it's definitely not.
Because 99% of traders won't wait until it makes a huge top and it breaks down. Not being in a trade is really hard.
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This shows a very important part of my main problem with Bitcoin. It's been trending below a key moving average for the first time. It has a macro distribution range. Now it's not gonna have a redistribution?
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It's clearly losing momentum for a long time. I'm not sure if it's possible to break 25k without a pullback.
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You need balls of steel to long any kind of pullback of this rally. I have to say :D
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I am highly skeptical about 27k after this weekly close. I wouldn't short a nice pullback and reversal scenario. Like 21k and then a nice bottom formation. Until then the market is bearish in my view.
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If this goes straight down, I'm not sure what to call this top in terms of a Wyckoff range. Maybe this is a range that will be traded longer than we think. Like another 2 years. Why not?
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I mean like this. Crazy but it's a possibility. 27k and reversal would be more convincing for bears. And traders who took advantage of this rally. But without it, bottom can be bought.
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This is the best scenario for bulls. This is something I would buy too.
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Look at the beauty of TOTAL chart. An example accumulation scenario I would buy. But forget what chart is this and look at the beauty of the giant distribution. How can you not expect a redistribution?
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We came to say hello to some moving averages.
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This might be it. 27k is still possible of course but you should respect these averages.
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I don't wanna be too cocky but the short here might be generational lol.
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Look at NASDAQ. It's hilarious.
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🫡
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Have an eye on all possible scenarios. You see the 0.618 correction at 31k. Flipping 25k is bullish. Flipping 27k bullish. Flipping 29k is bullish bla bla. Yes and no. Flipping 31-32k is bullish. You have a monster distribution range in front of your eyes. You are not REALLY bullish until you take it back. Simple.
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On January 12 I shared my long game about Bitcoin with this update to my accumulation idea: 'Ok my plan is set. Build short up to 32k.' Bitcoin was around 18k. That's about having a macro view.
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The great decoupling? Hehehe.
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Sell.
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Looks like the break of 25k will cause a lot of celebrations at this point. After all why not?
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Whatever the lord says. We are just mere mortals.
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The problem is that the market is already long. Sentiment has changed greatly. A test dump can show some colors.
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Epic fight. So fun :D
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They believe this will break up. I'm neutral close to negative until it breaks one way convincingly. It's like their last hope for short-term bullish action.
They believe this will break up. I'm neutral close to negative until it breaks one way convincingly. It's like their last hope for short-term bullish action.
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That gets us to 27s. So It's ok I guess.
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It's not convincing until it breaks this angle.
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Then this MA is respected. Lose that and free ride to 20k.
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I can imagine this kinda fuckery before the ultimate nuke.
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Some people believe Bitcoin started act as it's in a different asset class. That's a dangerous thought. Super bold at least. Even for short time of periods. We've seen this scenario many times throughout the bear market.
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Haha Wall Street is wrong. China is bidding. Yeah? Not sure.
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If this was the top, I still think there is a good chance of bouncing near the bottom of the range. Roughly speaking 19k. Or even crazier, make a little bit of a wick for the yearly candle and go up all year. But, will I buy the dip? No until I see good signals.
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My expectation for the last fuckery remains if 25s is the top.
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All eyes on US markets. China is BIDDING for sure. But still all eyes on US markets.
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?
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Today bears should show up with some power. Or we will probably have another bullish Friday if this parabola breaks up.
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And you wouldn't want that after all this consolidation you know. We don't know what the consolidation is for yet.
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When I get super confused about a chart, the first thing I try is that I remove everything on the chart except the price. Select 3D candle chart and see how I feel. This is not telling me a good story so far.
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I guess I can try a trade like this.
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19.300 & 18.300. Two levels I can try limit buy trades.
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I longed BTC @22.800 with a stop @22.400. Instead of reducing my short size.
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I'm planning to TP around 23.500 but we will see.
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Why not? We need a good range.
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Closed long. It still looks weak to me.
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I think it was trying something like this on ltf.
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Forced rallies vs real bull markets:
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Literally all on the timeframes, this is the way of this rally. Looks weak, gets shorted and continues. But with a fading momentum overall. Is the help coming? We don't know.
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22k?
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Would be nice if it came to 22k. I'm not sure what it does right now.
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Maybe it's gonna be a perfect rounding top.
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wtf? ok :D
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I've reduced my short sizes like 30-40% here. They were overgrown :D No matter how strong this dump is, 22k was an important target.
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Honestly SPX doesn't look bad. I have an alarm @4100. Bullish above imo.
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Maybe.
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Might be the weirdest BTC range. Trading has stopped.
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It's like one whale shouted at the crowd and silenced everyone.
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Interesting stubborness :D More it consolidates more chance to break 21.300.
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Let's do Eve&Adam. Just for fun.
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I promise I will be a bull if you do this. I will buy all the way up.
Trade closed manually:
Closed my BTC short ~21.600. I will hold LTC&BNB shorts for now. There is a good chance it bounces here. So I chose to close BTC short to de-risk.
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See how important this level is. I can't see a strong momentum too. So it was worth risking some more gains (no greed). I am happy with my very low risk alt shorts now.
See how important this level is. I can't see a strong momentum too. So it was worth risking some more gains (no greed). I am happy with my very low risk alt shorts now.
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This didn't give me confidence. It either ends with a crash or bounce imo. Not a sustainable trend.
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Wow. Look at BTC.D. I understand weak crypto totally. But weak BTC against crypto is surprising.
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Yeah I was wrong :D It was about to create momentum. Anyway, I won't complain making money.
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Looks like we all expect a bounce, huh?
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Let the market build something for you.
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Retest. Considering taking a short again. But I wanna see Monday at least.
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I have orders between 27k-27.3k. GLHF :D
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I got my first entry @26.240. I think it makes sense to start building here again.
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Maybe.
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Interesting part is that we still have shorts. Idk how y'all bear mfers still survive :D I'd expect to see longs dominate really hard at this point.
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Exciting isn't it? Magic number got hit.
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Bears shouldn't let it close the week above 27.400.
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We don't want it in the weekly cloud.
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I'm not comfortable that this idea has become so popular :D Accumulation idea wasn't this popular.
Trade with good risk management. And watch the FED closely. They pumped liquidity as a band-aid. But if Bitcoin stalls at these prices, or even below 35k I would say, expect new lows. Expect the worst. Because this band-aid won't work. Markets are still high on drugs.
Trade with good risk management. And watch the FED closely. They pumped liquidity as a band-aid. But if Bitcoin stalls at these prices, or even below 35k I would say, expect new lows. Expect the worst. Because this band-aid won't work. Markets are still high on drugs.
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Team '25s and last leg up' for now.
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Help that never came.
