btc is long term.
** The Zone of Frustration **
Since the January 03 2022 1W candle, Bitcoin has been trading (closing) entirely below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). I have labelled the periods of price action within the 1W MA50 and 1W MA200 as the 'Zone of Frustration' where traders start to get confused at best or lose complete faith in the market. Right now it seems that we are approaching the end of this period. Notice how this is normally marked by a strong rejection on the 1W MA50 (March 28 2022 and July 30 2018 1W candles. In 2014, it was a near rejection on the November 10 2014 candle).
** The Zone of Frustration **
Since the January 03 2022 1W candle, Bitcoin has been trading (closing) entirely below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). I have labelled the periods of price action within the 1W MA50 and 1W MA200 as the 'Zone of Frustration' where traders start to get confused at best or lose complete faith in the market. Right now it seems that we are approaching the end of this period. Notice how this is normally marked by a strong rejection on the 1W MA50 (March 28 2022 and July 30 2018 1W candles. In 2014, it was a near rejection on the November 10 2014 candle).
Trade closed: stop reached:
** Creating a 9 year Buy Zone **
The Top of the Channel is on the November 25 2013 peak of that Cycle. As you see, all the Cycles and price action that followed since then has seen the Zone within Fib 0.0 and Fib 0.236 as the ultimate Buy Zone being valid for 9 years running. In fact during the previous Bear Cycle (2018) the price dipped only marginally below the 0.236 Fib as its was the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) that provided the necessary Support and formed the bottom.
It was only during the Black Swan event of the March 2020 COVID global meltdown that the price pierced through but still rebounded just above the Fib 0.0 (bottom of the Fibonacci Channel Up) and the 1W candles closed only marginally below the 1W MA200. That was the case also with the Jan 12 2015 and August 24 2015 Lows, they broke but closed on or above the 1W MA200, showcasing why it is the ultimate buy spot within this 9 year Buy Zone.
Notice that, excluding the COVID crash of March 2020, the 0.236 Fib has made perfect hit and hold actions as Support 5 times since December 2018.
The Top of the Channel is on the November 25 2013 peak of that Cycle. As you see, all the Cycles and price action that followed since then has seen the Zone within Fib 0.0 and Fib 0.236 as the ultimate Buy Zone being valid for 9 years running. In fact during the previous Bear Cycle (2018) the price dipped only marginally below the 0.236 Fib as its was the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) that provided the necessary Support and formed the bottom.
It was only during the Black Swan event of the March 2020 COVID global meltdown that the price pierced through but still rebounded just above the Fib 0.0 (bottom of the Fibonacci Channel Up) and the 1W candles closed only marginally below the 1W MA200. That was the case also with the Jan 12 2015 and August 24 2015 Lows, they broke but closed on or above the 1W MA200, showcasing why it is the ultimate buy spot within this 9 year Buy Zone.
Notice that, excluding the COVID crash of March 2020, the 0.236 Fib has made perfect hit and hold actions as Support 5 times since December 2018.