Good morning again and happy Martin Luther King Jr day my fellow Bitcoin heads and welcome back to my daily glance into the exciting world of Bitcoin. Today I have the 4hr time frame pulled up after a fun filled night spent attempting to take 36k back from the bears. We are currently above 36k but can it last? I see much to be bullish about over the next couple of months but the bears will not be ignored. With that in mind lets discuss the current predicament and what we think is going to come our way this coming week.
I reached over 200 subscribers to my YouTube channel and I appreciate each and everyone of you. At 500 new subs I will do a give away. Either a pure silver BTC or perhaps just sending some BTC to the winner. I will think on that a bit more... Stay tuned!
Abbreviations in this analysis: 4hr 50 MA = It means the 4 hour time frame 50 candle moving average or the average of the last 50 candles represented with a line on the chart. This line can act as support and resistance along with a simple way of showing current market conditions (if we are above it then traders consider that bullish. If below the MA traders consider that bearish) (line is orange on my chart)
The 4hr 200 MA = It means the 4 hour time frame 200 candle moving average or the average of the last 200 candles represented with a line on the chart. This line can act as support and resistance along with a simple way of showing current market conditions (if we are above it then traders consider that bullish. If below the MA traders consider that bearish) (line is blue on my chart)
The cloud = Its known as the cloud but the technical name is "Ichimoku cloud" and the cloud (short explanation) is pretty useful. The top and bottom can act as support and resistance depending on where the candles lie currently. If the candles get inside of the cloud it causes consolidation typically and we can get stuck inside. You can see that in the recent 4hr time frame price action. When we are above the cloud its considered bullish and below is considered bearish. The color of the cloud changes as well and can indicate whether its a bearish time or bullish depending on the color. (green means recent price action has been bullish while red it the opposite)
As we chug along here on this beautiful Monday morning I see that we found the loving support of the 4hr cloud over the weekend into today. The cloud is acting exactly as it should when the candles get inside of the indicator and we are seeing the results of what happens to the candles when they enter the cloud as I type. Consolidation. You see the cloud has a top and bottom border that act as support and resistance depending on where the candles lie at any given time. This tends to encapsulate the candles upon entering the cloud and can make it rather difficult for the bears or the bulls to make their escape. We are seeing that in recent candle action. The candles cannot seem to make their escape from the cloud.
With the 4hr 50 MA bearing down on us at the moment going up may be easier said than done. I am looking at the close that happened just a few seconds ago though and it seems like we may have closed above the 4hr 50 MA which would be bullish. But we need a confirmation candle. 2 would be even better. A confirmation candle is a candle that remains above the 4hr 50 MA even after the first candle closes above the indicator. A confirmation candle basically confirms that the break out is legit and we have found some legit support upon the indicator in question (in this case that is the 4hr 50 MA or the orange line) So just because we broke above the resistance I would not light the fireworks just yet.
Typically on Monday I speak about the weekend and the gap especially. The thing is there is a holiday today in the US. The US is where the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange). Im not 100% if the CME stays open on MLK jr day. From a quick google search it says the CME will be closed today. So no gap til tomorrow possibly.
Looks like the break out of the cloud is legit so far. We broke 37k while I was typing. Nice work bulls! But we are still stuck inside of this giant triangle. The triangle that started at 42k ATH and then dipped to 30k. That is around a 12k spread. This is a loose science really but that could mean that a 12k break out is coming. I would suspect a break out towards the end of January. No promises and 12k could be way off. But it is something to watch. We may be able to decipher a direction for the break out towards the end of the triangle. Only time will tell. I drew the possible outcomes if this does play out... Ill tell you right now its either 50k or 20k. Either way we should be excited. Either we climb and get profit. Or we drop and that means cheaper BTC. Either possibility is great IMO.
Now the break out rule I just mentioned isnt 1000% reliable so dont go remortgaging your home and selling your car on account of my TA. Ive been wrong before and will be again. No doubt. That is what a stop loss is for after all. I can tell you right now that the prospect of breaking into the 50k range is enough to keep me on the edge of my computer chair for the next few weeks or so. Im thinking we should know for sure towards the end of January.
The MACD is on the chart today. I made a video covering it yesterday and its available on my Youtube channel. The MACD is quite easy to use as when the blue line is under the yellow that is bullish and when the blue is on top its bearish. Its not difficult to correlate the data from the MACD and the candles. Just compare the 2 charts (candles sticks and the MACD) and look what happened when the yellow line was on top vs when the blue line was on top. This is how I initially learned to use many indicators as I didnt want to "bug" my mentors with the regular "How do I use hash ribbons or a moving average" because these were things I could easily google search and get an idea of how they work. That is basically how I learned to use the MACD. Its so easy to see the correlation between the indicator (MACD) and the candles above. Just my 2 satoshis.
At the end of this analysis Bitcoin has climbed over 1k since I started writing. If you can learn to take advantage of pumps like this you can make killer profit. The big pumps are one thing but most investors took advantage of the recent pump. When you can catch these "small" swings that is when you are a top trader. Traders can make money at 3k or 42k. A true trader doesnt get bothered by where the price is. I mean I love seeing BTC above 30k but I can make money wherever BTC is on the chart. A 1k swing in 15 mins is great to make profit from. Learn how to identify potential breakouts and you can take advantage of them. I know its easier said than done. Just take your time. Learn to read a chart and paper trade til then. Fake it til you make it. I initially traded by just marking on the chart where I bought and where I would sell. Simple yet it helps you make tough decisions with no $$$ involved. Losing money can make noobs emotional and that is the last thing anyone needs when they trade... Knee jerk reactions can kill a portfolio in no time.
Im going to end it here folks. I have blabbed enough. But make sure if you are going to take a position make sure logic doesnt evade you. TA is still relevant at these levels. The swings are just big. I mentioned a possible 12k break out towards the end of the month but if you really want my advice is play it safe. Set a stop loss as we approach the end of the triangle. If we drop the stop trips and you are out of the trade (with minimal losses) if we break up you chase the candles with your stop loss ultimately locking in that sweet profit. Take profit or let the stop loss you walked up sell for you. I do that a lot. Regardless of how you let the trade play out you need to be vigilant and also exercise the risk management I mention every single day. Nobody is going to be impressed if you trade without a stop loss. Believe me. Its foolish to avoid the very thing that can be the difference between a 100 dollar loss vs a 1200 dollar loss. Its like a seat belt in a car. Sure you dont have to wear one. But when that car flips you wont have a plan B. You are done. I have talked enough today lol. I hope you all have a fantastic day. Make good choices folks! Exercise that risk management I talk about every single day and always remember.... WTFDIK?????? (What the F do I know?)
TLDE (Too long didnt read) I have a lot of people asking me what the various abreviations mean so I added them to this analysis. I think things look pretty good today. We are likely to remain below 38800 til the end of the month minimum. The breakouts I mentioned in this analysis are not guaranteed and you need to understand that. Whatever you do set a stop loss!
I reached over 200 subscribers to my YouTube channel and I appreciate each and everyone of you. At 500 new subs I will do a give away. Either a pure silver BTC or perhaps just sending some BTC to the winner. I will think on that a bit more... Stay tuned!
Abbreviations in this analysis: 4hr 50 MA = It means the 4 hour time frame 50 candle moving average or the average of the last 50 candles represented with a line on the chart. This line can act as support and resistance along with a simple way of showing current market conditions (if we are above it then traders consider that bullish. If below the MA traders consider that bearish) (line is orange on my chart)
The 4hr 200 MA = It means the 4 hour time frame 200 candle moving average or the average of the last 200 candles represented with a line on the chart. This line can act as support and resistance along with a simple way of showing current market conditions (if we are above it then traders consider that bullish. If below the MA traders consider that bearish) (line is blue on my chart)
The cloud = Its known as the cloud but the technical name is "Ichimoku cloud" and the cloud (short explanation) is pretty useful. The top and bottom can act as support and resistance depending on where the candles lie currently. If the candles get inside of the cloud it causes consolidation typically and we can get stuck inside. You can see that in the recent 4hr time frame price action. When we are above the cloud its considered bullish and below is considered bearish. The color of the cloud changes as well and can indicate whether its a bearish time or bullish depending on the color. (green means recent price action has been bullish while red it the opposite)
As we chug along here on this beautiful Monday morning I see that we found the loving support of the 4hr cloud over the weekend into today. The cloud is acting exactly as it should when the candles get inside of the indicator and we are seeing the results of what happens to the candles when they enter the cloud as I type. Consolidation. You see the cloud has a top and bottom border that act as support and resistance depending on where the candles lie at any given time. This tends to encapsulate the candles upon entering the cloud and can make it rather difficult for the bears or the bulls to make their escape. We are seeing that in recent candle action. The candles cannot seem to make their escape from the cloud.
With the 4hr 50 MA bearing down on us at the moment going up may be easier said than done. I am looking at the close that happened just a few seconds ago though and it seems like we may have closed above the 4hr 50 MA which would be bullish. But we need a confirmation candle. 2 would be even better. A confirmation candle is a candle that remains above the 4hr 50 MA even after the first candle closes above the indicator. A confirmation candle basically confirms that the break out is legit and we have found some legit support upon the indicator in question (in this case that is the 4hr 50 MA or the orange line) So just because we broke above the resistance I would not light the fireworks just yet.
Typically on Monday I speak about the weekend and the gap especially. The thing is there is a holiday today in the US. The US is where the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange). Im not 100% if the CME stays open on MLK jr day. From a quick google search it says the CME will be closed today. So no gap til tomorrow possibly.
Looks like the break out of the cloud is legit so far. We broke 37k while I was typing. Nice work bulls! But we are still stuck inside of this giant triangle. The triangle that started at 42k ATH and then dipped to 30k. That is around a 12k spread. This is a loose science really but that could mean that a 12k break out is coming. I would suspect a break out towards the end of January. No promises and 12k could be way off. But it is something to watch. We may be able to decipher a direction for the break out towards the end of the triangle. Only time will tell. I drew the possible outcomes if this does play out... Ill tell you right now its either 50k or 20k. Either way we should be excited. Either we climb and get profit. Or we drop and that means cheaper BTC. Either possibility is great IMO.
Now the break out rule I just mentioned isnt 1000% reliable so dont go remortgaging your home and selling your car on account of my TA. Ive been wrong before and will be again. No doubt. That is what a stop loss is for after all. I can tell you right now that the prospect of breaking into the 50k range is enough to keep me on the edge of my computer chair for the next few weeks or so. Im thinking we should know for sure towards the end of January.
The MACD is on the chart today. I made a video covering it yesterday and its available on my Youtube channel. The MACD is quite easy to use as when the blue line is under the yellow that is bullish and when the blue is on top its bearish. Its not difficult to correlate the data from the MACD and the candles. Just compare the 2 charts (candles sticks and the MACD) and look what happened when the yellow line was on top vs when the blue line was on top. This is how I initially learned to use many indicators as I didnt want to "bug" my mentors with the regular "How do I use hash ribbons or a moving average" because these were things I could easily google search and get an idea of how they work. That is basically how I learned to use the MACD. Its so easy to see the correlation between the indicator (MACD) and the candles above. Just my 2 satoshis.
At the end of this analysis Bitcoin has climbed over 1k since I started writing. If you can learn to take advantage of pumps like this you can make killer profit. The big pumps are one thing but most investors took advantage of the recent pump. When you can catch these "small" swings that is when you are a top trader. Traders can make money at 3k or 42k. A true trader doesnt get bothered by where the price is. I mean I love seeing BTC above 30k but I can make money wherever BTC is on the chart. A 1k swing in 15 mins is great to make profit from. Learn how to identify potential breakouts and you can take advantage of them. I know its easier said than done. Just take your time. Learn to read a chart and paper trade til then. Fake it til you make it. I initially traded by just marking on the chart where I bought and where I would sell. Simple yet it helps you make tough decisions with no $$$ involved. Losing money can make noobs emotional and that is the last thing anyone needs when they trade... Knee jerk reactions can kill a portfolio in no time.
Im going to end it here folks. I have blabbed enough. But make sure if you are going to take a position make sure logic doesnt evade you. TA is still relevant at these levels. The swings are just big. I mentioned a possible 12k break out towards the end of the month but if you really want my advice is play it safe. Set a stop loss as we approach the end of the triangle. If we drop the stop trips and you are out of the trade (with minimal losses) if we break up you chase the candles with your stop loss ultimately locking in that sweet profit. Take profit or let the stop loss you walked up sell for you. I do that a lot. Regardless of how you let the trade play out you need to be vigilant and also exercise the risk management I mention every single day. Nobody is going to be impressed if you trade without a stop loss. Believe me. Its foolish to avoid the very thing that can be the difference between a 100 dollar loss vs a 1200 dollar loss. Its like a seat belt in a car. Sure you dont have to wear one. But when that car flips you wont have a plan B. You are done. I have talked enough today lol. I hope you all have a fantastic day. Make good choices folks! Exercise that risk management I talk about every single day and always remember.... WTFDIK?????? (What the F do I know?)
TLDE (Too long didnt read) I have a lot of people asking me what the various abreviations mean so I added them to this analysis. I think things look pretty good today. We are likely to remain below 38800 til the end of the month minimum. The breakouts I mentioned in this analysis are not guaranteed and you need to understand that. Whatever you do set a stop loss!