BTC about to break ATH but things aren't looking too good
Hey guys!
Let's see how's the market feeling in this cold weekend!
Okay, straight to the point.
On the 4H we have:
- bullish divergence on MACD
- price breaking above all important moving averages
- MACD showing good bullish momentum
- MACD line and Signal cross is in positive phase
The last time we had a rather similar scenario, it was in May 2020 when the price was struggling to break above 10K.
As you can see in the image, a big bullish divergence was built up and finally it did break 10K with a big volume after bouncing back from EMA200, but it didn't stay there for long. Why? Let's take a look at the 1D chart.
On 1D, we've got:
- There's a big bearish divergence on MACD which will potentially prevent the price from leaving the range for good just now.
- The Signal and MACD cross is still in bearish phase in 1D.
- Fear&Greed Index on daily TF has been high for way too long now. You know what happens when the market gets too greedy.
- There's a news about a 150,000BTC pay off by MtGox scheduled for Dec 15th. There might be a big sell ahead.
- Plus, there's a CME gap on 17K which works like a magnet and pulls the price down. (I know it's not a rule for it to be filled, but statistically more than 70% of them have been filled under a month.)
Conclusion:
BTC is going to try for ATH once more and I think it's gonna be broken this time but influenced by the bearish signals on higher TFs, it's probably not gonna last long above 20K.
Oh, btw, the green box I marked as the Target on 4H has to do with Fibonacci calculations. Let's see if my scenario is going to play out or not!
Ciao!
Let's see how's the market feeling in this cold weekend!
Okay, straight to the point.
On the 4H we have:
- bullish divergence on MACD
- price breaking above all important moving averages
- MACD showing good bullish momentum
- MACD line and Signal cross is in positive phase
The last time we had a rather similar scenario, it was in May 2020 when the price was struggling to break above 10K.
As you can see in the image, a big bullish divergence was built up and finally it did break 10K with a big volume after bouncing back from EMA200, but it didn't stay there for long. Why? Let's take a look at the 1D chart.
On 1D, we've got:
- There's a big bearish divergence on MACD which will potentially prevent the price from leaving the range for good just now.
- The Signal and MACD cross is still in bearish phase in 1D.
- Fear&Greed Index on daily TF has been high for way too long now. You know what happens when the market gets too greedy.
- There's a news about a 150,000BTC pay off by MtGox scheduled for Dec 15th. There might be a big sell ahead.
- Plus, there's a CME gap on 17K which works like a magnet and pulls the price down. (I know it's not a rule for it to be filled, but statistically more than 70% of them have been filled under a month.)
Conclusion:
BTC is going to try for ATH once more and I think it's gonna be broken this time but influenced by the bearish signals on higher TFs, it's probably not gonna last long above 20K.
Oh, btw, the green box I marked as the Target on 4H has to do with Fibonacci calculations. Let's see if my scenario is going to play out or not!
Ciao!
Trade active:
Target Reached!