Brief intro - I've been a crypto investor/trader since 2016. I've wrote articles for CryptoBanter as well as been on their research team and worked as a content creator / researcher for PersonaFi. I just created a new Tradingview account to start fresh. You'll be seeing a lot more from me soon 🙂
Look around at the economy - does it REALLY seem that bad?
Yes, rates are rising and QT is happening, but how's production and consumption?
Are companies remaining profitable?
Does everyone have a place to work?
Not to mention my previous in-depth DXY analysis
Here's my prediction:
TL;DR first
• Stocks/Crypto downtrend rest of year.
• Shift momentum early January - SPX breaks trend, BTC rides it.
• SPX re-test late February - late March.
• BTC breaks trend end of March, SPX also moves up.
*If this hits, I'll analyze further later.
▪︎SPX down 3700-3850 before shifting direction abruptly early January
While I don't do stocks much I know it's VERY uncommon for the price to hit a trendline so perfectly - looks like a perfect bear trap. Bring in some terrible news (likely this month or early next) to create panic, we'll likely see a quick dip down on that news but the dip will be bought up and it will continue up relatively slowly before breaking the trend and starting a rally.
▪︎DXY up to 106-110 before falling (also early January)
(Reference previous DXY post)
▪︎BTC relatively boring. Mostly ranging between $15-17,500, likely one dip below - may be bigger than the chart shows.
$14,206.90 is an interesting number (1 - 42069)
All in all, it's served me well overtime to become numb about price, but I also generally get in before the majority. While on paper buying low and selling high is a better investment strategy than "HODLing", I've had bad experiences and good experiences with both - I actually had bad experiences with both this last cycle.
▪︎Sold most of MATIC I bought $0.01 at $0.05 because I was up 5x (topped @ $2.92)
▪︎"HODL'd" all my DOT this entire cycle (avg entry $4.12, could've quadrupled my holding if I sold and re-bought)
The fact is no one can time the market, while selling off in the green may lock in profit, you may never see the price you once bought in at ever again. I personally consider a 5× return a loss when it could've been a 292× return. Especially when you consider I had 100k MATIC and sold all but 10k at $0.05 🙃 (still hurts). Personally, that loss is bigger to me than losing a chance at increasing my Polkadot holding - because I have long-term confidence in it so while I missed the opportunity to get a bigger share, I'm still comfortable with my position - I just now have the opportunity to add more in close to my inital entry price.
When they say investing / trading is all emotional, it truly is. YOU have to stick to YOUR plan - if you want to make money in the short-term, take your profits. But if you're planning on more of a long-term investment make damn sure you have enough confidence in what you're buying to hold it no matter what (not saying you have to hold it - but you should have enough confidence to not question if you should).
Look around at the economy - does it REALLY seem that bad?
Yes, rates are rising and QT is happening, but how's production and consumption?
Are companies remaining profitable?
Does everyone have a place to work?
Not to mention my previous in-depth DXY analysis
Here's my prediction:
TL;DR first
• Stocks/Crypto downtrend rest of year.
• Shift momentum early January - SPX breaks trend, BTC rides it.
• SPX re-test late February - late March.
• BTC breaks trend end of March, SPX also moves up.
*If this hits, I'll analyze further later.
▪︎SPX down 3700-3850 before shifting direction abruptly early January
While I don't do stocks much I know it's VERY uncommon for the price to hit a trendline so perfectly - looks like a perfect bear trap. Bring in some terrible news (likely this month or early next) to create panic, we'll likely see a quick dip down on that news but the dip will be bought up and it will continue up relatively slowly before breaking the trend and starting a rally.
▪︎DXY up to 106-110 before falling (also early January)
(Reference previous DXY post)
▪︎BTC relatively boring. Mostly ranging between $15-17,500, likely one dip below - may be bigger than the chart shows.
$14,206.90 is an interesting number (1 - 42069)
All in all, it's served me well overtime to become numb about price, but I also generally get in before the majority. While on paper buying low and selling high is a better investment strategy than "HODLing", I've had bad experiences and good experiences with both - I actually had bad experiences with both this last cycle.
▪︎Sold most of MATIC I bought $0.01 at $0.05 because I was up 5x (topped @ $2.92)
▪︎"HODL'd" all my DOT this entire cycle (avg entry $4.12, could've quadrupled my holding if I sold and re-bought)
The fact is no one can time the market, while selling off in the green may lock in profit, you may never see the price you once bought in at ever again. I personally consider a 5× return a loss when it could've been a 292× return. Especially when you consider I had 100k MATIC and sold all but 10k at $0.05 🙃 (still hurts). Personally, that loss is bigger to me than losing a chance at increasing my Polkadot holding - because I have long-term confidence in it so while I missed the opportunity to get a bigger share, I'm still comfortable with my position - I just now have the opportunity to add more in close to my inital entry price.
When they say investing / trading is all emotional, it truly is. YOU have to stick to YOUR plan - if you want to make money in the short-term, take your profits. But if you're planning on more of a long-term investment make damn sure you have enough confidence in what you're buying to hold it no matter what (not saying you have to hold it - but you should have enough confidence to not question if you should).
Brett Jessen