Good morning again ladies and gentlemen and welcome back to my daily look into the world of Bitcoin. Today I have the 4hr time frame pulled up after recovering a bit from recent bear action. The bulls have not had the best luck in terms of losses this month but if you look at the chart a bit more zoomed out the bulls are still very well off. After all we are still above 30k and that is a win in my opinion. But will we stay above 30k or is the 20k - 30k range within our future? I will give you my thoughts in this analysis. So lets get this show on the road.
First things first. Lets talk about yesterday. We were dipping pretty heavily briefly testing 29k before rebounding to current levels. Its like the bears are dipping their toes into the pond to see how cold it is. I have a feeling that we dip below this huge right triangle on the chart very soon. There are at least 3 reasons why I feel that way. 3 among many others but 3 right in front of our faces. Lets discuss.
The 4hr 50 MA (orange line) is right above us and so it the 4hr 200 MA (blue line) along with the cloud (red mass above our heads) are all combined. That isnt good. You have to ask yourself a few questions if you want to long this. Question one would have to be "are other traders longing this?" I think the answer is no. They see the same resistance I see and will likely make the same decisions I make to protect my bag. When you see a multitude of resistance above your head (especially combined as it is here) You should be very cautious with your trades. Just sayin...
We did bounce from 30k yesterday and that was nice to see. But each subsequent bounce after the visit to 30 in Early January has been lower. Lower highs is an indication of bearish trend and can even lead to a bear market. I know its not easy to change from bull to bear but your success as a trader depends on predictions somewhat and being in denial is a quick way to talk yourself out of thousands. Its just not smart trading.
I see the possibility of us rising a bit more over the course of this a.m. but gettting above 33k will be a chore. If we do we have a real shot at extending the run above 30k indefinitely. In the mean time watch 30k. If it fails (await confirmation candle or set a stop and let it do its job) we will likely be stuck under the same support at 30k we enjoyed all month. 30k will then flip from support like it is currently to resistance. That is part of trading. Support flips to resistance and vice versa.
With the death cross (4hr death cross) becoming a reality this week I see little chance of a quick reversal. I have been wrong in the past but each day we spend creating lower highs just strengthens the bears case for BTC in the 20k - 29,999 USD range. Ive seen worse though. Remember when BTC was at 3200 after the first run to 20k back in 2017? That was quite a drop. Can we expect something similar after the recent run? Possibly. Dont ever underestimate the bulls bears or Bitcoin. You saw what happened when people underestimated the bulls back in the middle of last year. They were shorting BTC at 20k and got rekt. Dont be that guy. I hope you all enjoy your day. Please make good choices with your investments. And always remember WTFDIK???
TLDR: Bears are out of their caves yall. I hope you have that bear mace handy as they seem bent on revenge. Bulls are still sleeping in. 30k needs to hold. But I fear it will fail over the next few days. Maybe even today... Stay tuned! Set a stop loss!
First things first. Lets talk about yesterday. We were dipping pretty heavily briefly testing 29k before rebounding to current levels. Its like the bears are dipping their toes into the pond to see how cold it is. I have a feeling that we dip below this huge right triangle on the chart very soon. There are at least 3 reasons why I feel that way. 3 among many others but 3 right in front of our faces. Lets discuss.
The 4hr 50 MA (orange line) is right above us and so it the 4hr 200 MA (blue line) along with the cloud (red mass above our heads) are all combined. That isnt good. You have to ask yourself a few questions if you want to long this. Question one would have to be "are other traders longing this?" I think the answer is no. They see the same resistance I see and will likely make the same decisions I make to protect my bag. When you see a multitude of resistance above your head (especially combined as it is here) You should be very cautious with your trades. Just sayin...
We did bounce from 30k yesterday and that was nice to see. But each subsequent bounce after the visit to 30 in Early January has been lower. Lower highs is an indication of bearish trend and can even lead to a bear market. I know its not easy to change from bull to bear but your success as a trader depends on predictions somewhat and being in denial is a quick way to talk yourself out of thousands. Its just not smart trading.
I see the possibility of us rising a bit more over the course of this a.m. but gettting above 33k will be a chore. If we do we have a real shot at extending the run above 30k indefinitely. In the mean time watch 30k. If it fails (await confirmation candle or set a stop and let it do its job) we will likely be stuck under the same support at 30k we enjoyed all month. 30k will then flip from support like it is currently to resistance. That is part of trading. Support flips to resistance and vice versa.
With the death cross (4hr death cross) becoming a reality this week I see little chance of a quick reversal. I have been wrong in the past but each day we spend creating lower highs just strengthens the bears case for BTC in the 20k - 29,999 USD range. Ive seen worse though. Remember when BTC was at 3200 after the first run to 20k back in 2017? That was quite a drop. Can we expect something similar after the recent run? Possibly. Dont ever underestimate the bulls bears or Bitcoin. You saw what happened when people underestimated the bulls back in the middle of last year. They were shorting BTC at 20k and got rekt. Dont be that guy. I hope you all enjoy your day. Please make good choices with your investments. And always remember WTFDIK???
TLDR: Bears are out of their caves yall. I hope you have that bear mace handy as they seem bent on revenge. Bulls are still sleeping in. 30k needs to hold. But I fear it will fail over the next few days. Maybe even today... Stay tuned! Set a stop loss!