This is a May 16 update to my parabolic-turn-around idea originally published May 5 (and updated May 12):
Well, this does appear to be happening.
Should you be uncomfortable with my $34,300 target for BTC, may I remind you that a short 14 months ago, its price was $3,782. That’s not a typo. The price was $3,782 (not $37,820).
And may I remind you that large cap coins do not do a 10X moon shot (let alone 17X) without a major retrace. They just don’t.
My two cents worth:
One might think the current BTC drama is organic price action caused by Average-Joe-Traders around the world. Well, may I suggest you may be a bit naive. This is an forced dump carefully managed by Bears (via their computers) who have a vested interest in a low BTC price. I submit three motives:
1. Altruistic: BTC, like all stocks and cryptos, need an occasional, major Fib-retrace to continue a healthy growth trend. This is not only natural, it is part of the "fair and orderly” promise made by licensed exchanges.
2. Individual greed: The above Bears, I’m quite sure, are holding short positions on BTC. Once their target bottom price is reached, they will cash out and make a nice profit.
3. Corporate greed: As you’ve no doubt heard, many main-stream investment firms have announced they are getting into cryptos. Did they actually buy when their announcement was made – or are they “waiting for” a better price? (I would have used a different term here, but I don’t want to be accused of being a conspiracy-theory guy.)
Possible major price action (± $1200):
$12,000 fall from $58,000 to $46,000 with $6,000 retrace to $52,000. (This has happened.)
$12,000 fall from $52,000 to 40,000 with $6,000 retrace to $46,000. (Ongoing now.)
$12,000 fall from $46,000 to $34,000 with $6,000 retrace to $40,000. ($34,000 = my target.)
$12,000 fall from $40,000 to $28,000. (Oh my!)
Enjoy the ride!
Nothing I post should be construed as trading advice.
Sincerely,
Bullbearish
(I'm a Bull, but Bear happens.)
PS: Below is the text of my May 12 update (which explains the radial lines):
_____________________________________
An update on my May 5 idea:
I tweaked the parabolas to accommodate the latest price action and added the radial lines a, b, c, and d. I did “cheat” (with some reasonable(?) TA rationale) on lines a and c, and I note that lows and highs occurring early or late in a day would affect the slope of these four long(!) lines.
The results are scary. Line d suggests that a flash crash could happen over the next few days -- even today. I don’t believe this will happen, but in the spirit of TA Ideas, I publish this to show why it could happen.
This is not trading advice.
And yes, I know, I'm using very unconventional TA, but hey ...
Sincerely,
Bullbearish
(I'm a Bull, but Bear happens.)
Well, this does appear to be happening.
Should you be uncomfortable with my $34,300 target for BTC, may I remind you that a short 14 months ago, its price was $3,782. That’s not a typo. The price was $3,782 (not $37,820).
And may I remind you that large cap coins do not do a 10X moon shot (let alone 17X) without a major retrace. They just don’t.
My two cents worth:
One might think the current BTC drama is organic price action caused by Average-Joe-Traders around the world. Well, may I suggest you may be a bit naive. This is an forced dump carefully managed by Bears (via their computers) who have a vested interest in a low BTC price. I submit three motives:
1. Altruistic: BTC, like all stocks and cryptos, need an occasional, major Fib-retrace to continue a healthy growth trend. This is not only natural, it is part of the "fair and orderly” promise made by licensed exchanges.
2. Individual greed: The above Bears, I’m quite sure, are holding short positions on BTC. Once their target bottom price is reached, they will cash out and make a nice profit.
3. Corporate greed: As you’ve no doubt heard, many main-stream investment firms have announced they are getting into cryptos. Did they actually buy when their announcement was made – or are they “waiting for” a better price? (I would have used a different term here, but I don’t want to be accused of being a conspiracy-theory guy.)
Possible major price action (± $1200):
$12,000 fall from $58,000 to $46,000 with $6,000 retrace to $52,000. (This has happened.)
$12,000 fall from $52,000 to 40,000 with $6,000 retrace to $46,000. (Ongoing now.)
$12,000 fall from $46,000 to $34,000 with $6,000 retrace to $40,000. ($34,000 = my target.)
$12,000 fall from $40,000 to $28,000. (Oh my!)
Enjoy the ride!
Nothing I post should be construed as trading advice.
Sincerely,
Bullbearish
(I'm a Bull, but Bear happens.)
PS: Below is the text of my May 12 update (which explains the radial lines):
_____________________________________
An update on my May 5 idea:
I tweaked the parabolas to accommodate the latest price action and added the radial lines a, b, c, and d. I did “cheat” (with some reasonable(?) TA rationale) on lines a and c, and I note that lows and highs occurring early or late in a day would affect the slope of these four long(!) lines.
The results are scary. Line d suggests that a flash crash could happen over the next few days -- even today. I don’t believe this will happen, but in the spirit of TA Ideas, I publish this to show why it could happen.
This is not trading advice.
And yes, I know, I'm using very unconventional TA, but hey ...
Sincerely,
Bullbearish
(I'm a Bull, but Bear happens.)