Dont look at this chart because it wont help to predict the current and short term price movements.
Instead, look at these two things
1) The current transactions fees
There has been a recent, massive spike resulting in miners earning an extra $200,000 USD per block in "tips"
2) The bitcoin hash rate
This shows that miners are staying in the game, probably due to the higher fees noted above
The Bitcoin halvening event occured on Friday, reducing the miners reward fee in half, and smart analysts expected a large amount of miners to get out of the market (and sell their BTC) as their mining operations would no longer be profitable. That extra sales pressure could push the price of bitcoin down temporarily - although the price is expect to move up in a bull run for the next year because its a 4 year cycle, rinse and repeat
However miners make money from two sources
1) Bitcoin rewards
- reduced by 50% on Friday after the "halvening"
2) Bitcoin transaction fees
- these are an optional "tip" that holders can add to their transaction to encourage miners to process their transaction ahead of other people's transactions.
For most of the last two years, the average transaction fee "tip" was $ 1-2 USD but it is now $ 128 USD. Each block has 2000 to 5000 transactions, resulting in miners currently earning $200,000 USD (paid in BTC) per block in "tips"
You can see this at:
https://blockexplorer.one/bitcoin/mainnet
That is a massive difference and it is making the less efficient miners stay in the game, instead of switching off their rigs.
Evidence of this can be seen in Bitcoin network hash rate.
https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/charts/hash-rate
This measures the total calculating effort that all miners have been putting in.
It did not drop much after the halvening which means miners are staying in the market, keeping their mining rigs processing, hoping to get some of that sweet sweet transaction fee bonus.
Why did the fees increase so much ?
When will it return to a more a normal fee ?
Will a price drop occurs when that happens ?
Those are all interesting questions, but I will leave it to others to answer
I expect they are related to the halvening - maybe a lot of wallet movements because people are concerned about a possible drop so they are moving funds to exchanges, ready to sell.
In summary, the current price movements might be related to the halvening, but miners are staying in the game because of current, huge transactions fees (bonus "tips") of $200,000 per block.
Instead, look at these two things
1) The current transactions fees
There has been a recent, massive spike resulting in miners earning an extra $200,000 USD per block in "tips"
2) The bitcoin hash rate
This shows that miners are staying in the game, probably due to the higher fees noted above
The Bitcoin halvening event occured on Friday, reducing the miners reward fee in half, and smart analysts expected a large amount of miners to get out of the market (and sell their BTC) as their mining operations would no longer be profitable. That extra sales pressure could push the price of bitcoin down temporarily - although the price is expect to move up in a bull run for the next year because its a 4 year cycle, rinse and repeat
However miners make money from two sources
1) Bitcoin rewards
- reduced by 50% on Friday after the "halvening"
2) Bitcoin transaction fees
- these are an optional "tip" that holders can add to their transaction to encourage miners to process their transaction ahead of other people's transactions.
For most of the last two years, the average transaction fee "tip" was $ 1-2 USD but it is now $ 128 USD. Each block has 2000 to 5000 transactions, resulting in miners currently earning $200,000 USD (paid in BTC) per block in "tips"
You can see this at:
https://blockexplorer.one/bitcoin/mainnet
That is a massive difference and it is making the less efficient miners stay in the game, instead of switching off their rigs.
Evidence of this can be seen in Bitcoin network hash rate.
https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/charts/hash-rate
This measures the total calculating effort that all miners have been putting in.
It did not drop much after the halvening which means miners are staying in the market, keeping their mining rigs processing, hoping to get some of that sweet sweet transaction fee bonus.
Why did the fees increase so much ?
When will it return to a more a normal fee ?
Will a price drop occurs when that happens ?
Those are all interesting questions, but I will leave it to others to answer
I expect they are related to the halvening - maybe a lot of wallet movements because people are concerned about a possible drop so they are moving funds to exchanges, ready to sell.
In summary, the current price movements might be related to the halvening, but miners are staying in the game because of current, huge transactions fees (bonus "tips") of $200,000 per block.
Trade closed: target reached:
Update - Its a couple of days later and the high transaction fees have pulled back from the peak of $128 average to around $25.
That is still pretty high
BTC trading volume is been fairly low
I think the market is unsure of what will happen in the short term and many are waiting to see some large buy or sell volume and larger price movements before the decide on their next moving
That is still pretty high
BTC trading volume is been fairly low
I think the market is unsure of what will happen in the short term and many are waiting to see some large buy or sell volume and larger price movements before the decide on their next moving