Hi, first published post here. Short term bullish on a long setup, overall neutral bias.
No one can predict where bitcoin will go. IDK where it'll go. What I think I see is a possibility for a giant rising wedge. The rising wedge breakdowns may not be significant in reaching its full targets though because of the low volume and because we are still within a sideways trading range.
What I think is that we still see lower prices again at least to 33.3k. That is where I'll look to long, possibly to the top of the rising wedge at the significant levels of 37.5 or 37.8k-38k. Bitcoin is currently overextendeded and these pumps on 4h are creating what are called imbalances or inefficiencies which are when you have a big blank candle inside a 3 candle formation (no wicks to either side) also called unfair pricing etc.
The way I'm trading this market is in significant levels. The drawings speak for themselves. if it closes below a demand zone, I will short the backtest down to the next level. If I want to be extra safe because maybe indicators are showing bullish signs, I would short the break(close) below the initial 15m/1h candle close below the support level or wait for consolidation below support then short that. Market is volatile though so I'm lazy to watch that and potentially miss out. Stop losses would be set slightly above the demand zones. These demand zones and levels are likely to change over the next week. For now though, these are my levels to trade.
The method I use to measure targets of breakouts from these consolidations are almost guaranteed which is the 200% fib extension taken from the selling climax to the automatic retest (wyckoff theory) and therefore I think if we broke to the upside, retested the range breakout, we can see 54.5k but alternatively 22.3k if we were to break to the downside. A big move will come soon. The general rule i go by is 3 stop hunts to the low or 3 stop hunts to the highs of the range to see a breakout. In this case we have 3 stop hunts to both sides so yeah, its really going either way.
I will be bearish from 37.5k but very bullish if we claim 38.5k and I will be very bearish if we close below 28.6k (given that we were to bounce at some point at or after that level to retest breakdown of the range. and then break that initial 4h close which crosses the breakdown of the range.
Trade safe, manage risks. Let's see how my first post plays out
No one can predict where bitcoin will go. IDK where it'll go. What I think I see is a possibility for a giant rising wedge. The rising wedge breakdowns may not be significant in reaching its full targets though because of the low volume and because we are still within a sideways trading range.
What I think is that we still see lower prices again at least to 33.3k. That is where I'll look to long, possibly to the top of the rising wedge at the significant levels of 37.5 or 37.8k-38k. Bitcoin is currently overextendeded and these pumps on 4h are creating what are called imbalances or inefficiencies which are when you have a big blank candle inside a 3 candle formation (no wicks to either side) also called unfair pricing etc.
The way I'm trading this market is in significant levels. The drawings speak for themselves. if it closes below a demand zone, I will short the backtest down to the next level. If I want to be extra safe because maybe indicators are showing bullish signs, I would short the break(close) below the initial 15m/1h candle close below the support level or wait for consolidation below support then short that. Market is volatile though so I'm lazy to watch that and potentially miss out. Stop losses would be set slightly above the demand zones. These demand zones and levels are likely to change over the next week. For now though, these are my levels to trade.
The method I use to measure targets of breakouts from these consolidations are almost guaranteed which is the 200% fib extension taken from the selling climax to the automatic retest (wyckoff theory) and therefore I think if we broke to the upside, retested the range breakout, we can see 54.5k but alternatively 22.3k if we were to break to the downside. A big move will come soon. The general rule i go by is 3 stop hunts to the low or 3 stop hunts to the highs of the range to see a breakout. In this case we have 3 stop hunts to both sides so yeah, its really going either way.
I will be bearish from 37.5k but very bullish if we claim 38.5k and I will be very bearish if we close below 28.6k (given that we were to bounce at some point at or after that level to retest breakdown of the range. and then break that initial 4h close which crosses the breakdown of the range.
Trade safe, manage risks. Let's see how my first post plays out