Is Bitcoin Bullish or Bearish? Objective Answer
TLDR:
Out of the seven conditions for a bullish bias, we can consider:
3/7: Fulfilled.
3/7: Partially Fulfilled.
1/7: Not Fulfilled.
The bulls can begin to feel optimistic but don’t bet the farm on Bitcoin, yet.
The Importance of Bias:
Determining a bias, bullish or bearish is a prerequisite before placing a trade. Simply, when an asset is in an uptrend, long trades have a higher probability of success. The opposite is also true.
Conditions of Bias:
To determine the bias, I have listed seven criteria:
1. ChoCh: a change of character marks a reversal of the previous trend. For example, when an asset’s price gets above (candle body) a previous LH. A ChoCh signifies a change in sentiment and a shift from a downtrend to an uptrend and vice versa.
In the chart, you can see that on October 1st, the daily candle body crossed above the September 19th wick. In that respect, you can say that we had a ChoCh.
2. HHs & HLs: If an asset consistently makes Higher highs and higher lows, the bias is bullish. In the case of Bitcoin, it had made:
• A low on September 11th (24.9K).
• A high on September 19th (27.5K)
• A lower high on September 25th (26K).
• A higher high on October 2nd (28.6K)
To consider this as an uptrend I would like to see one HH and a HL. This condition is partially filled.
3. EMA’s: This condition is divided into three categories:
3.1 200D EMA: the 200D EMA (roughly) divides the sentiment to bullish or bearish. If Price > 200D, the asset is bullish. Bitcoin is above the 200D EMA.
3.2 Bull Market Support Band: If the asset is above the BM Support band it is bullish. If the asset is below the BMSB it is bearish. Currently, Bitcoin is inside the BMSB. This condition is not filled.
3.3. Short EMAs Above Long EMAs: The 50D EMA is above the 200D. The 21D EMA is also above the 200D EMA, and it just crossed above the 50D EMA.
I consider this condition as partially fulfilled.
4. RSI: The RSI is a momentum indicator. Like the 200D EMA, it also can serve as a rough estimate of bias. If the RSI > 50, then the asset is bullish. In this respect, we can consider this condition as fulfilled.
5. Volume: In an uptrend, we would like to see a general overall rise in volume. In particular, we want to see volume rising when the price goes up and a decline in volume when the price goes down.
Since the low of 24.9K on September 11th, we had 24 trading days. 13/24 were green days. 8/13 of the green days were with a higher-than-average volume. However, to confirm an uptrend we need volume to pick up, especially on the green days. I consider this condition as partially fulfilled.
6. Reliable Support: The 25K has proved that it is a strong support. If we examine the PA together with Fixed Range Volume Profile the 26K is also strong. The fact that there was no retest of the 25K level or even the 26K is a bullish sign. I consider this condition as fulfilled.
7. Break Above Resistance: The 28.15 – 28.6K is a significant S/R level. Until now Bitcoin did not flip this level to support. I consider this condition as unfulfilled.
Conclusion:
If Bitcoin makes another HH & HL and flips the 28.5K to support, the bias is bullish. Until this happens this uptrend is still fragile, and it can flip to full-on bearish.
NFA.
What do you think? Please share
Best Wishes
Out of the seven conditions for a bullish bias, we can consider:
3/7: Fulfilled.
3/7: Partially Fulfilled.
1/7: Not Fulfilled.
The bulls can begin to feel optimistic but don’t bet the farm on Bitcoin, yet.
The Importance of Bias:
Determining a bias, bullish or bearish is a prerequisite before placing a trade. Simply, when an asset is in an uptrend, long trades have a higher probability of success. The opposite is also true.
Conditions of Bias:
To determine the bias, I have listed seven criteria:
1. ChoCh: a change of character marks a reversal of the previous trend. For example, when an asset’s price gets above (candle body) a previous LH. A ChoCh signifies a change in sentiment and a shift from a downtrend to an uptrend and vice versa.
In the chart, you can see that on October 1st, the daily candle body crossed above the September 19th wick. In that respect, you can say that we had a ChoCh.
2. HHs & HLs: If an asset consistently makes Higher highs and higher lows, the bias is bullish. In the case of Bitcoin, it had made:
• A low on September 11th (24.9K).
• A high on September 19th (27.5K)
• A lower high on September 25th (26K).
• A higher high on October 2nd (28.6K)
To consider this as an uptrend I would like to see one HH and a HL. This condition is partially filled.
3. EMA’s: This condition is divided into three categories:
3.1 200D EMA: the 200D EMA (roughly) divides the sentiment to bullish or bearish. If Price > 200D, the asset is bullish. Bitcoin is above the 200D EMA.
3.2 Bull Market Support Band: If the asset is above the BM Support band it is bullish. If the asset is below the BMSB it is bearish. Currently, Bitcoin is inside the BMSB. This condition is not filled.
3.3. Short EMAs Above Long EMAs: The 50D EMA is above the 200D. The 21D EMA is also above the 200D EMA, and it just crossed above the 50D EMA.
I consider this condition as partially fulfilled.
4. RSI: The RSI is a momentum indicator. Like the 200D EMA, it also can serve as a rough estimate of bias. If the RSI > 50, then the asset is bullish. In this respect, we can consider this condition as fulfilled.
5. Volume: In an uptrend, we would like to see a general overall rise in volume. In particular, we want to see volume rising when the price goes up and a decline in volume when the price goes down.
Since the low of 24.9K on September 11th, we had 24 trading days. 13/24 were green days. 8/13 of the green days were with a higher-than-average volume. However, to confirm an uptrend we need volume to pick up, especially on the green days. I consider this condition as partially fulfilled.
6. Reliable Support: The 25K has proved that it is a strong support. If we examine the PA together with Fixed Range Volume Profile the 26K is also strong. The fact that there was no retest of the 25K level or even the 26K is a bullish sign. I consider this condition as fulfilled.
7. Break Above Resistance: The 28.15 – 28.6K is a significant S/R level. Until now Bitcoin did not flip this level to support. I consider this condition as unfulfilled.
Conclusion:
If Bitcoin makes another HH & HL and flips the 28.5K to support, the bias is bullish. Until this happens this uptrend is still fragile, and it can flip to full-on bearish.
NFA.
What do you think? Please share
Best Wishes
Comment:
All eyes on the trendline and supply zone. If bitcoin manages to make it a HL and break above 28.6 then we are bullish af
Comment:
I think it's safe to say Bitcoin is bullish
