Short term LONG and then Long term SHORT
I'm watching to see this play out. Anything could happen, but the stage is set for this scenario.
BTC has been moving up within a parallel channel for past few days. It couldn't hold support on top of channel, currently heading down to look for support on bottom. It would make sense to me if it finds support and bounces at or around the bottom of channel (Indicated as BUY ZONE). The larger pattern playing out is a classic and ubiquitous markup/markdown pattern that is the DNA of all price movement. Three moves up, crown top, three moves down. That pattern is shown in yellow. I have various reasons to believe that BTC will begin to move down and even if it pushes above the recent high from a couple days ago, it will only do so briefly and then rapidly move down in the first of three pronounced downward pushes, each push followed by a slight (often 50% retrace) before another swift downward push. There is further support for this speculative short term range due to the ADR range. A short term move down is within the ADR range and a bounce and peak is also aligned with that as well as with the M4 pivot point where we could encounter resistance. Also the bottom of the BUY RANGE coincides with a full recovery of the large green candle on this time frame. There are also some fibonacci retracement lines in there (in organge) which are based on the recent upward move and the retracement. So the buy zone goes down to the 0.382 retracement off the recent pump. We are currently testing the 0.236 and if it breaks, the 0.382 is next.
The BUY ZONE (in green) is a range where I could see price moving down to before short term bounce.
The SELL ZONE is a range where I could see price rising to and peaking at before sudden drop.
These ranges are simply an educated guess. It may drop below the BUY ZONE or rise above the SELL ZONE, but what I'm convinced of is that a significant dump is coming soon. What probability tells me is that we're likely to revisit the recent local high before that dump happens. Price often pushes above the left hand peak when this structure plays out, but not always.
The riskier play is to catch a long entry and exit before the structure peaks. The safer play is to identify a likely bounce point near the buy zone and then find a short entry once it becomes evident that we've peaked.
I'm waiting for a short entry in the sell zone. But since there is so much variability in the ultimate highs and lows here in the short term, I'll be taking into account a number of factors before I make my short term entry. Once I'm convinced enough that we're headed down and we've peaked in the structure, I'll enter. But I'm not waiting to enter in a particular range, I'm waiting for more information.
BTC has been moving up within a parallel channel for past few days. It couldn't hold support on top of channel, currently heading down to look for support on bottom. It would make sense to me if it finds support and bounces at or around the bottom of channel (Indicated as BUY ZONE). The larger pattern playing out is a classic and ubiquitous markup/markdown pattern that is the DNA of all price movement. Three moves up, crown top, three moves down. That pattern is shown in yellow. I have various reasons to believe that BTC will begin to move down and even if it pushes above the recent high from a couple days ago, it will only do so briefly and then rapidly move down in the first of three pronounced downward pushes, each push followed by a slight (often 50% retrace) before another swift downward push. There is further support for this speculative short term range due to the ADR range. A short term move down is within the ADR range and a bounce and peak is also aligned with that as well as with the M4 pivot point where we could encounter resistance. Also the bottom of the BUY RANGE coincides with a full recovery of the large green candle on this time frame. There are also some fibonacci retracement lines in there (in organge) which are based on the recent upward move and the retracement. So the buy zone goes down to the 0.382 retracement off the recent pump. We are currently testing the 0.236 and if it breaks, the 0.382 is next.
The BUY ZONE (in green) is a range where I could see price moving down to before short term bounce.
The SELL ZONE is a range where I could see price rising to and peaking at before sudden drop.
These ranges are simply an educated guess. It may drop below the BUY ZONE or rise above the SELL ZONE, but what I'm convinced of is that a significant dump is coming soon. What probability tells me is that we're likely to revisit the recent local high before that dump happens. Price often pushes above the left hand peak when this structure plays out, but not always.
The riskier play is to catch a long entry and exit before the structure peaks. The safer play is to identify a likely bounce point near the buy zone and then find a short entry once it becomes evident that we've peaked.
I'm waiting for a short entry in the sell zone. But since there is so much variability in the ultimate highs and lows here in the short term, I'll be taking into account a number of factors before I make my short term entry. Once I'm convinced enough that we're headed down and we've peaked in the structure, I'll enter. But I'm not waiting to enter in a particular range, I'm waiting for more information.