The Bitcoin conundrum part ll

https://medium.com/@robartcherveniakov/the-bitcoin-conundrum-part-ll-e8535e9d7f7c
Based on the premise that the entire market has been extremely bullish for the past ~420days, I do expect for the market to maintain its bullish momentum.
We have approximately 103 days until the Bitcoin halving occurs (The next Bitcoin halving is expected to take place in April 2024. It is difficult to predict the exact date as it depends on the block height. Since halving happens every 210,000 blocks, the next Bitcoin halving is expected to occur in April 2024 when the block height reaches 840,000), which gives a person opportunity to position itself for what is about to come.
What is about to come:
- Bitcoin halving is when the reward for Bitcoin mining is cut in half and takes place approximately every four years. The halving policy was written into Bitcoin's mining algorithm to counteract inflation by maintaining scarcity
- Currently, the breakeven production cost for a single Bitcoin is approximately $15,000. As long as the price of Bitcoin stays above $15,000, Bitcoin miners should be profitable. However, in 2024, the average production cost for mining a single Bitcoin would approximately increase to $30,000.
“Magically” BTC has found its potential bottom at approximately $15,495 on 21st of Nov22

- Ever since the trend has been bullish with HH-HL across the board

- Taking into consideration that we are still in the midst of an internal retracement it was reasonable to assume that price would have some sort of reaction around 47k. “Magically” this reaction aligned with the Bitcoin Spot ETF SEC approval. It was also reasonable to assume that the BTC spot ETF would lead to some sort of manipulation, as BlackRock would need to accumulate at “reasonable” prices.
Putting the fundamentals aside.
- The past weekly close has printed a SFP (swing failure pattern), failing to close above $43,792, which has been the resistance for the past 35days or so. This could be interpreted as a major reversal sign or at least as sign of weakness, indicating that a period of stagnation is about to come (however taking into consideration the macro-economic factors, I would not assume that the market would fail to continue with its bullish momentum).
- If we zoom in to the Daily chart it can be observed that price has remained range bound for the past 43days, with a clear & confirmed deviation >45k. As a general rule, trade the range until it fails, however all ranges break at some point. Contrary to popular beliefs a support/resistance level weakens the more it’s tested. It remains to be seen how thing would play out exactly.
- Additionally this parallel channel frames the 3months or so, quite well
- If price is about to be contained within this channel it is reasonable to assume yet another retest of the trend line & if it holds we could see price rocketing toward 50k. This would be the path of least resistance as it is clearly seen on the weekly chart below:


- Now if the lower trend line does not hold the levels below 42 are clearly established
- Personally I believe that anything below $40,000 is simply a gift nowadays.
- As long as #BTC remains above $30,000 the bullish momentum remains
- The path outlined below would simply be a gift to all participants. Trade with caution. Robo out