Sorry I haven't posted in a while. I had many of my trades banned by tradingview and it pissed me off. This one I needed to share.
Bitcoin recently lost it's log channel trend. This was a trend that had been respected for 7 years. Losing this channel was a very bearish signal IMO. Although I am MASSIVELY BULLISH on bitcoin in the long term, I believe we are on course for a multiple year bear market which will see bitcoin bottom out somewhere between $900-$1800.
On my twitter account, I posted multiple warnings in this area and I believe we have successfully retested this broken trend. However, this is a very critical time for Bitcoin. Our path to 50-100k bitcoin in the foreseeable future lies here.
Bullish
If we can reclaim this log channel, this would be a huge shakeout from losing this log trend and reclaiming it would be massively bullish. I would want to see 2 closes in the log channel for confirmation to be bullish again.
Another lesser bullish scenario would be to continually retest this channel over the coming weeks, knocking on this resistance line, makes it primed to break into the channel again. But this scenario still leaves the possibility of a dump. It would be slightly more bullish than bearish.
Bearish
This is the scenario I am leaning towards. Retesting this log channel was textbook of losing a major trend and having a successful retest. I think $9500 will not be seen for many years to come. Now that we have lost this channel, I believe we should see either a) A sharp sell off for the next year or 2 OR b) A sideways consolidation between a range (3k-6k) before a breakdown and starting a new bull trend. I think we are more likely to see a sharper sell off into the next year or 2 and then a bottoming out, and the start of a new bull channel where bitcoin can begin it's real bull market.
Bitcoin recently lost it's log channel trend. This was a trend that had been respected for 7 years. Losing this channel was a very bearish signal IMO. Although I am MASSIVELY BULLISH on bitcoin in the long term, I believe we are on course for a multiple year bear market which will see bitcoin bottom out somewhere between $900-$1800.
On my twitter account, I posted multiple warnings in this area and I believe we have successfully retested this broken trend. However, this is a very critical time for Bitcoin. Our path to 50-100k bitcoin in the foreseeable future lies here.
Bullish
If we can reclaim this log channel, this would be a huge shakeout from losing this log trend and reclaiming it would be massively bullish. I would want to see 2 closes in the log channel for confirmation to be bullish again.
Another lesser bullish scenario would be to continually retest this channel over the coming weeks, knocking on this resistance line, makes it primed to break into the channel again. But this scenario still leaves the possibility of a dump. It would be slightly more bullish than bearish.
Bearish
This is the scenario I am leaning towards. Retesting this log channel was textbook of losing a major trend and having a successful retest. I think $9500 will not be seen for many years to come. Now that we have lost this channel, I believe we should see either a) A sharp sell off for the next year or 2 OR b) A sideways consolidation between a range (3k-6k) before a breakdown and starting a new bull trend. I think we are more likely to see a sharper sell off into the next year or 2 and then a bottoming out, and the start of a new bull channel where bitcoin can begin it's real bull market.