This chart is near impossible to take seriously. Can it be discounted entirely?
Some background:
I became interested in seven-wave structures. These structures play out in all markets, and on multiple timeframes. While the pattern plays out the upside as well as the downside, seven-wave crash structures are particularly noticeable.
Seven waves down, and within the seventh wave the structure repeats (i.e., within the seventh wave, seven sub-waves, and within the seventh sub-wave, seven more, etc).
In the latest ABC correction BTC is printing, Wave A and Wave C are both seven-wave crash structures.
Earlier, I took a look at the entire 2020-21 bull run for BTC, to see if this pattern was playing out at that level, and what it might say about where the current correction would find its base.
Along with the wave count, there are some parameters — in terms of Fibonacci sequences and proportions between waves — that can act as a guide to what will follow.
That said, these parameters are not always consistent.
The wave count is somewhat subjective, but in essence you're looking for a first major drop, which would be Wave 3, and a second much larger drop, which would be Wave 5.
The "Elon Musk tweet" that supposedly crashed BTC (it didn't - it was already crashing) came right before a Wave 5 down.
Similarly the liquidation wick of 18 April was a Wave 5 down.
From Wave 5, the base, or the end of Wave 7, can roughly be projected from either the 0.786 or 0.702 Fibonacci taken from the beginning of the whole movement.
Can this schema be applied to the whole history of BTC?
This chart is inverted, to make it easier to discern the possible wave pattern, flipping BTC's decade-long ascent into a crash structure.
On first glance, it looks eerily like the C Wave we all just experienced, and are still experiencing.
If indeed there is a seven-wave movement here, it might suggest both good and bad news.
The good news is that BTC might reach 230k in 2022.
But from there is potential bad news. Because after the seven-wave crash structure, one can expect a standard ABC corrective wave. Just as one expects a corrective wave from a 1-2-3-4-5 Elliott wave.
Normally speaking, this corrective wave should find rejection at the 0.702 Fibonacci, before a larger seven-wave structure takes hold and continues the directional movement.
True, this ABC should not come above Wave 3, and here it would, so that is questionable. But we don't talk about that.
For BTC, this would give a juicy target of $69 at some time in 2031. The S2F model, rightly respected, would collapse.
The bottom of what might seem the bear market of 2025 would see BTC hit $185. This would be followed in 2028 with a return to between the 0.236 and 0.382 of the Fibonacci sequence for Wave B of the corrective ABC. This would align with the reverse 0.702 of the entire history of BTC, coming in at $7.3k, where BTC would find rejection. So a failed bull run that wouldn't see BTC exceed its ATH.
Sad faces.
However, after the panic, the collapse of Microstrategy, and indeed the entire cryptomarket, the next wave would be Wave C to the Wave A of the last decade of bitcoin, and this would see gains worth hodling for.
If we measure the base of Wave C on the 0.618 placed on the peak of Wave 7 of Wave A, 1 BTC would be worth $3 trillion, possibly by 2045.
So when bitcoin hits $69 in 2031, just remember that target!
Some background:
I became interested in seven-wave structures. These structures play out in all markets, and on multiple timeframes. While the pattern plays out the upside as well as the downside, seven-wave crash structures are particularly noticeable.
Seven waves down, and within the seventh wave the structure repeats (i.e., within the seventh wave, seven sub-waves, and within the seventh sub-wave, seven more, etc).
In the latest ABC correction BTC is printing, Wave A and Wave C are both seven-wave crash structures.
Earlier, I took a look at the entire 2020-21 bull run for BTC, to see if this pattern was playing out at that level, and what it might say about where the current correction would find its base.
Along with the wave count, there are some parameters — in terms of Fibonacci sequences and proportions between waves — that can act as a guide to what will follow.
That said, these parameters are not always consistent.
The wave count is somewhat subjective, but in essence you're looking for a first major drop, which would be Wave 3, and a second much larger drop, which would be Wave 5.
The "Elon Musk tweet" that supposedly crashed BTC (it didn't - it was already crashing) came right before a Wave 5 down.
Similarly the liquidation wick of 18 April was a Wave 5 down.
From Wave 5, the base, or the end of Wave 7, can roughly be projected from either the 0.786 or 0.702 Fibonacci taken from the beginning of the whole movement.
Can this schema be applied to the whole history of BTC?
This chart is inverted, to make it easier to discern the possible wave pattern, flipping BTC's decade-long ascent into a crash structure.
On first glance, it looks eerily like the C Wave we all just experienced, and are still experiencing.
If indeed there is a seven-wave movement here, it might suggest both good and bad news.
The good news is that BTC might reach 230k in 2022.
But from there is potential bad news. Because after the seven-wave crash structure, one can expect a standard ABC corrective wave. Just as one expects a corrective wave from a 1-2-3-4-5 Elliott wave.
Normally speaking, this corrective wave should find rejection at the 0.702 Fibonacci, before a larger seven-wave structure takes hold and continues the directional movement.
True, this ABC should not come above Wave 3, and here it would, so that is questionable. But we don't talk about that.
For BTC, this would give a juicy target of $69 at some time in 2031. The S2F model, rightly respected, would collapse.
The bottom of what might seem the bear market of 2025 would see BTC hit $185. This would be followed in 2028 with a return to between the 0.236 and 0.382 of the Fibonacci sequence for Wave B of the corrective ABC. This would align with the reverse 0.702 of the entire history of BTC, coming in at $7.3k, where BTC would find rejection. So a failed bull run that wouldn't see BTC exceed its ATH.
Sad faces.
However, after the panic, the collapse of Microstrategy, and indeed the entire cryptomarket, the next wave would be Wave C to the Wave A of the last decade of bitcoin, and this would see gains worth hodling for.
If we measure the base of Wave C on the 0.618 placed on the peak of Wave 7 of Wave A, 1 BTC would be worth $3 trillion, possibly by 2045.
So when bitcoin hits $69 in 2031, just remember that target!
AgitationZone | TA-focused cryptocurrency Discord channel discord.gg/atGcaRzz