It has been a while since I last posted, because the Wyckoff idea i had suggested on the shorter term was invalidated. I closed my long in profit, as it had broken down out of what appears to have been a leading diagonal pattern (which I had been keeping my eye on).
As a result of this, I have been re-analysing and trying to establish my view of the elliot waves.
My long term view remains bullish, as I had previously posted about the weekly trend and I have reopened new long positions at $18,932.
Take a look at the bigger picture on the weekly chart:
There is a long standing bullish trend on the logarithmic chart, that has been established since around March/April 2013. The price is at the bottom of a "bullish pennant pattern" on the chart, which had previously been the shape that has been what any previous corrections has formed and price is now also at the bottom of the long term trend. Its now bouncing off the trendline with a bullish "Morning Star candlestick pattern" as seen on the below charts:
The price is also at the previous ATH level from 2017/2018 and also the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level of the correction pattern. This is proving to be strong support area and confluence area in addition to the long term trend.
In addition to this, the weekly RSI is oversold and is now bouncing off the RSI moving average, showing that there is bullish momemtum. This has previously been the catalyst to the next bull run whenever the RSI has been in this position in the entire history of bitcoin:
Where next for bitcoin?
I think the price has bottomed out on 18th June at around $17,592 , as the price has now formed the leading diagonal pattern I mentioned earlier. Following this, there will usually be a break down of the pattern, which forms wave 1 and 2 of the new bullish trend starts.
I believe this has now happened and the wave 2 has ended at the confluence area of the long term bull trend, bottom of the pennant pattern, 161.8% fib extension of the pennant correction shape, 2017/2018 ATH and oversold RSI.
It is now breaking out the top of the short term bearish trend and soon to be out of the top of the new short term trendline that was set from the failed breakout (marked by the black "wave 1" on my daily chart).
I think this wave 3 will now continue up to the 161.8% fib extension level around $35,000, have a correction back down to around $29,000 (wave 4) and then the 5th wave will continue up to around the 61.8% fib retracement level of around $41,000 (retracement from the ATH down to the most recent low of around $17,900).
I believe that this will then complete the end of the primary "wave 1".
For the long term primary waves, I believe the long term targets are still around the $100,000 - $160,000 levels I've mentioned on previously published ideas (127.8% and 161.8% fib retracement levels).
My early predictions for the 5 primary wave cycle (which is entirely speculative at this stage) are in the chart below:
As a result of this, I have been re-analysing and trying to establish my view of the elliot waves.
My long term view remains bullish, as I had previously posted about the weekly trend and I have reopened new long positions at $18,932.
Take a look at the bigger picture on the weekly chart:
There is a long standing bullish trend on the logarithmic chart, that has been established since around March/April 2013. The price is at the bottom of a "bullish pennant pattern" on the chart, which had previously been the shape that has been what any previous corrections has formed and price is now also at the bottom of the long term trend. Its now bouncing off the trendline with a bullish "Morning Star candlestick pattern" as seen on the below charts:
The price is also at the previous ATH level from 2017/2018 and also the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level of the correction pattern. This is proving to be strong support area and confluence area in addition to the long term trend.
In addition to this, the weekly RSI is oversold and is now bouncing off the RSI moving average, showing that there is bullish momemtum. This has previously been the catalyst to the next bull run whenever the RSI has been in this position in the entire history of bitcoin:
Where next for bitcoin?
I think the price has bottomed out on 18th June at around $17,592 , as the price has now formed the leading diagonal pattern I mentioned earlier. Following this, there will usually be a break down of the pattern, which forms wave 1 and 2 of the new bullish trend starts.
I believe this has now happened and the wave 2 has ended at the confluence area of the long term bull trend, bottom of the pennant pattern, 161.8% fib extension of the pennant correction shape, 2017/2018 ATH and oversold RSI.
It is now breaking out the top of the short term bearish trend and soon to be out of the top of the new short term trendline that was set from the failed breakout (marked by the black "wave 1" on my daily chart).
I think this wave 3 will now continue up to the 161.8% fib extension level around $35,000, have a correction back down to around $29,000 (wave 4) and then the 5th wave will continue up to around the 61.8% fib retracement level of around $41,000 (retracement from the ATH down to the most recent low of around $17,900).
I believe that this will then complete the end of the primary "wave 1".
For the long term primary waves, I believe the long term targets are still around the $100,000 - $160,000 levels I've mentioned on previously published ideas (127.8% and 161.8% fib retracement levels).
My early predictions for the 5 primary wave cycle (which is entirely speculative at this stage) are in the chart below:
The price is currently on the way up it seems, but if that gets stopped by the top of the falling wedge and makes a "wave 4" of 5 waves down, it could then potentially form the "A wave" from an "ABC" correction, which breaks down from the long term bullish trend and we could see this correction take us down to around $3,000 - $6,500.
This is a long term bullish trend, so I will always favour trading with the trend and until it has broken, then I won't be looking for bearish positions.
If the trend does break, then I will be looking for short positions around the "B" of the ABC