Hello fellow cyrptoz, BTC trading has certainly been subdued with low trading volumes and falling prices. This is why BTC is in a channel ticking highers lows but feeling very quiet with few buyers stepping in to deliver the holders the pump they need. When you look at the bigger picture the end of 2017 was a frenzy of buyers far outweighing the sellers and over the last six months there has been a slow bleeding of the weaker hands and opportunists. The daily chart is screaming this out to me. We are yet to see any real proof of institutional investment showing up as buyers,and the retail market has been exhausted and battered. In fact it is well established the market sentiment is controlled by psychological cycles over time. A long time. Elliot wave theory postulates grand super cycles over millenia. My point is to relay that hitting the moon by the end of the year and making estimates absurdly high values of BTC is negligent. Thank ..... that we don't have to wait for millenia, because BTC is a solid asset class and will grow handsomely. However, until the institutional investors or fresh new retail investors step in as buyers BTC hitting $50000 will take 5-10 years instead of 1 year.
Lets go to the chart and what do have we ...gold everywhere. I have gone back to the start of the golden cross way back in October 2016 and ended in Jan 2017. So the ATH posted retraced down to the $250 mark from Oct 2016 we have BTC now sitting right in the golden pocket between the green and purple lines. Also on the 4 hr chart there is an impending golden cross at a point which other variables are in play. These are the 0.618 fib line, the strong 23 week trend line in yellow which is the first resistance and then the 18 week green trend line. My theory is buyers will be starting to get fatigue after breaking through these resistances and a correction from $8800 back down to the major green support line, bounce back up to next major resistance and then repeat to 12 K. Notice how the yellow waves to 12 k are symmetrical and have form. This is because the waves are a representation of an organic process and must follow accordingly. So to summarise the chart action BTC can break upwards through
-the ATH 0.618 fib line
- the 18 & 23 week trend lines
or bounce of those lines which would be very bearish. If BTC break down under the pink 0.65 fib line it would be a disaster which would retest the $6k ranges. BTC is in an extremely important junction where it will decide once and for all if it will hit the moon for this year. If not the moon, my 2018 estimate now is more conservative due to the lack of buying signals and market activity.
BTCUSD July 2018 - $8800
Sept 2018- $10000
Dec 2018 - $12000.
As always I am happy to elaborate on anything. Just let me know.
*Please like or follow if you are happy with this TA.
*Each individual trading position is unique and this information should not be used to formulate any type trading plan.
Lets go to the chart and what do have we ...gold everywhere. I have gone back to the start of the golden cross way back in October 2016 and ended in Jan 2017. So the ATH posted retraced down to the $250 mark from Oct 2016 we have BTC now sitting right in the golden pocket between the green and purple lines. Also on the 4 hr chart there is an impending golden cross at a point which other variables are in play. These are the 0.618 fib line, the strong 23 week trend line in yellow which is the first resistance and then the 18 week green trend line. My theory is buyers will be starting to get fatigue after breaking through these resistances and a correction from $8800 back down to the major green support line, bounce back up to next major resistance and then repeat to 12 K. Notice how the yellow waves to 12 k are symmetrical and have form. This is because the waves are a representation of an organic process and must follow accordingly. So to summarise the chart action BTC can break upwards through
-the ATH 0.618 fib line
- the 18 & 23 week trend lines
or bounce of those lines which would be very bearish. If BTC break down under the pink 0.65 fib line it would be a disaster which would retest the $6k ranges. BTC is in an extremely important junction where it will decide once and for all if it will hit the moon for this year. If not the moon, my 2018 estimate now is more conservative due to the lack of buying signals and market activity.
BTCUSD July 2018 - $8800
Sept 2018- $10000
Dec 2018 - $12000.
As always I am happy to elaborate on anything. Just let me know.
*Please like or follow if you are happy with this TA.
*Each individual trading position is unique and this information should not be used to formulate any type trading plan.
Comment:
As expected BTC headed for a major confluence zone and golden cross on the 4 hr
