Felix000
Long

#Bitcoin bull's still in charge only just.

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
What's the danger. Has yet to close below green offset 5 day MA. Gone up to sideways since last Thursday May3 breakout of downward trend line . Also broke through a couple of significant previous fractal highs on the way up. Never closed higher than 12th March resistance level $9,900 ($10,000 just psychological level). I've got nothing else to add. Could be make or break today as MACD bar in minus area first switch since April 8. Bulls still in charge since Thursday. For bears Market would have to close below offset 5 day MA. Then it's got to break down through first upwardly sloping green trend line , and close below Thursday's breakout open of $9,236.4. Then take out low $8,750 of my turquoise (light blue) rectangle that would start getting serious. Then take out $8,616 low one of my pink fractal boxes. Then take out $8,572.6 the 61.8% retrace of H. 12th March to L. 18th March. For other potential horizontal support levels see my chart.
Comment: The green offset 5 day MA point is at $9,380.13 today Tuesday 8th May.
Comment: Was trying to work out why people viewing my previous post "Bitcoin being squeezed for a break-out" instead of my updated post here. Just realised that this chart is not showing latest price but does show on my previous post. It's not the first time I've noticed this. I think it just tends to happen with daily, weekly, and monthly chart posts. It's really annoying.
Comment: The green line reading $9231.1 is the low of Jan17, and a correction of previous post which had it at $9,166.3
Comment: I'll probably update this chart soon as I can tomorrow May9.
Comment: Bears taking hold. Market closed below offset 5 day MA point $9,380.13, and also below Thursday's breakout open of $9,236.4. MACD bars turned negative for the first time since April 8. Price had a slight break beneath the upwardly sloping green trend line yesterday, and looks like will test that again today. If it gives way I expect price will test lower support levels.
Comment: I'm beginning to wonder whether today May9 might be a day of carnage when shorts get burned and market closes above $10,000. It's also a day when two trend lines intersect on my chart and which is why just in case if market reversed up again and boke $9,565 I would switch to long again.
Comment: Stats for tomorrow Thursday May10. Check this out. I've just done a check since December 2017 on MACD bars. I took the 3rd day after MACD bars went into minus territory and deducted the high of the day from the low and these were my results:

All days ended down. Could tomorrow be the exception and end up?

Dec22 volatility high - low = $ 5,142
Jan11 volatility high - low = $ 2,360
Feb1 volatility high - low = $ 1,395
Mar10 volatility high - low = $ 835.5
Mar29 volatility high - low = $ 1,090
Comment: For bulls, if stats are going to follow with a down day like the last time, it could be a good idea to at least do a higher high today than yesterday. Then again can't tell the market what to do.
Comment: I think my next chart posting will have to be entitled "#bitcoin waiting for breakout follow through". What's been happening today May10. Market has posted a higher high today than yesterday - good for bulls. Volatility so far has been unimpressive compared to stat figures for historic volatility that I posted yesterday - what could that mean? The upside breakout of last week has not retreated at this moment by as much as feared. The break to the downside of the first green upwardly sloping trend line may not have been as important as if it had broken the one further down.
Comment: So May10 didn't match up to the stats in volatility but did end day down. Stats for the following day may be a step to far. For now I'm going to switch to long on retrace through $9,157.55 that's 50% of H/L of my turquoise (light blue) rectangle on the chart.
Comment: I think my idea above when to go long a good one because as previously posted previous beak outs of turquoise (light blue) rectangle have been big moves and therefore have to stick with current flow down.
Comment: See my latest post and research results "#Bitcoin Buy zone between $7,271.3 and $6,745.1 (8 to 12 day Bear market from May5. Day 7 = May12)"
Comment: CORRECTION regarding count of days.

Saturday May 12 is 8th day and not 7th day in an 8 to 12 day bear market which began Saturday May 5th with high of $9,990.
Comment: Just repeating a copy of my idea posted on somebody else's posting:

The way I see it is that Bitcoin's technical expansion from the Aug 2016 low to Dec 2017 high did not form any consecutive weekly fractal highs or lows. This year Bitcoin is off to a good start again from Feb 2018 low and probably in the midst of a soon to be confirmed weekly fractal high followed by a weekly fractal low. I believe we are in an 8 to 12 day bear market which began May 5 and which will end over the next 4 days - Sun, Mon, Tue, or Wed max. Then hopefully away we go smash through $9,990 create the next weekly fractal high further up. Of course a lot can happen in the meantime to wreck my idea. Next week's Consensus event may help. NOT TO BE TAKEN AS ADVICE (ALL USUAL DISCLAIMERS APPLY)
Comment: Been thinking since morning whether the points I would go long should be lowered a bit, even been drawing some new downward trend lines but then I'm thinking what news on Mon, Tue, or Wed next week could keep the price down? Will sit on the side line for now. If price touched a Bollinger band set at (20, Close, 3) on 2hr chart that could interest me outside of what's already on my Day chart.
Comment: Tough decision 2 hour chart top Bollinger was $8,762.333 and price made it to $8,760 that's $2.333 short.
Comment: I think they only got that close because of the price drop near the end.
Comment: Is that a bear flag 2hr chart Top from 8631.7 to 8760 and Bottom from 8204.4 to 8218.2 ? Price looking like its going to break lower.
Comment: Largest Asian four hour drop since last Monday May 7th.
Comment: Incoming bunker buster flag just broke,
Comment: Waiting for follow through. Could develop instead into a rising channel.
Comment: If price breaks through supports, and looking at a bear flag then price could be heading below $7,600.
Comment: Copy of most recent post

#Bitcoin $10,956 plus by end Wed May 16 Y/N?

Previously market was looking at a drop from $9,990 of between $2,752.4 and $3,937. Looks like the 8 to 12 day bear market ended on the 8th day and that the drop won't be as great as the rise back up through the last daily fractal high by the 12th day. So I'm now thinking the reverse from $8,204.4 that would be $10,956 plus by end Wednesday ($8,204.4 + $2,752.4 = $10,956). Given market $8,825 high already today it's not impossible especially as were in Consensus 2018 week, and WOW what good news is coming out from there.

At the moment price appears to be caught in an upward channel. I expect price to break upward from that rather than down to new lows.

How I worked out these figures see my previous post "#Bitcoin next buy zone between $7,271.3 and $6,745.1"

Of course a lot can happen in the meantime to wreck my idea, but all looks clear for the time being.

REMEMBER NOT TO BE TAKEN AS ADVICE (ALL USUAL DISCLAIMERS APPLY)
Comment: My call long may have been wrong in this 8 to 12 day analysis of previous market action. MACD bars are in the minus area, and price has not broken higher though important Fib and trend lines as expected. Could head down for a new low, and global financial markets could also impact today.
Comment: Had market already hit $9,000 that would have been great.
Comment: I note a divergence in yesterdays bar. By that I mean whenever closing price and MACD bars close in different directions (marked with either green or red verticals in my MACD chart - have added a green to Mon. May14). If today market closes above or below yesterdays high or low then todays open $8,670.8 i.e. the day after open can be a useful stop loss trigger if the days following reverse and close above or beneath it. This stop loss idea is still a work in progress, but one of the ideas I'm keeping in mind while Bitcoin appears stuck in a holding position up from lows.
Comment: As admitted to earlier my go long plan B may have been wrong in this 8-12 day analysis of previous market action. MACD bars in minus, and not broken higher though important Fib and trend lines as expected. Could head for new low. Global markets could impact. Had market already hit $9,000 then better.

It's hard not to be thinking plan A the short right now aided by Global markets.
Comment: One more day to go and the market move is still a minimum $992.4 shorter than the stats predicted. Price still appears to be caught in an upward channel but now at the lower end.
Comment: Today the percentage of Bitcoin traders net-long is now its highest since May 04 when Bitcoin traded near 9653.15 well one more day to go.
Comment: Upward channel looks broken by bears now or under pressure.
Comment: Just touched the lower Bollinger (set at 20, close,3) on 2hr chart very often a directional signal
Comment: Today the percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since May 05 when Bitcoin traded near 9782.48.
Comment: My 8 to 12 day bear/bull analysis (tweets May 11 & 14) of previous market action ends today Wed May 16. The analysis may not have delivered expected volatility but when this bear ends, next bull run may need repeat like two consecutive down fractals made between Mar 23 & Apr 1 which were followed by Apr 3 retrace and Apr 6 confirmed support.
Comment: Copy of my most recent post

#Bitcoin going cautiously long, Consensus 2018, saw the low Y/N?

During, Consensus 2018, I'd say bulls won on points (market held up well).
Global markets could impact but there are loads of places to put stops in.

Better way of putting it "Bitcoin, Consensus 2018, bulls won on points (time spent above weekend low). Bitcoin now set to go higher, but not while rattled by current global markets and events.
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