Bitcoin continues to follow it's halving cycle process. Today it's hit the highest price it's been since since April 2022. The short term price is highly dependent on the narrative that we currently expect one or more Bitcoin ETFs to be approved within weeks. If that's rejected we may, of course, see a major price unwind, but even if that happened it's extremely unlikely to get below $31k. We could wick down to the orange trend line (currently around
25K
) and still be in an overall uptrend. In my view, the last hope for the bears was destroyed in October when BTC closed the week above that orange trend line.
I don't believe I've adjusted the size of the yellow box we're in since I created it on the chart in 2022. It was meant to represent the potential high and low potential for this pre-halving period after the "Low" bar in December 2022. Right now we're at the very top of that box which shows Bitcoin is acting stronger than a normal cycle. That's really impressive given how strong the "Bitcoin is dead" narrative was 1 year ago.
I still assume that we won't make new all time highs ahead of the Bitcoin halving (~ April 2024), but if a bunch of ETFs are approved and they are advertising to win market share we could get an unprecedented price pop.
Indicators on the chart:
Bitcoin's price is supported by improvements in the Global Central Banks liquidity as shown in the top indicator panel which turned green in November 2023 after it's September 2023 low. I think Bitcoin believers should be wary of believing in Bitcoin narratives when they go against global liquidity which has run parallel to Bitcoin halving cycles for much of it's existence.
The BTC MVRV Z score indicator shows we're nowhere near the cycle top or bottom right now.
The BTC Flows indicator is a new open source indicator I've uploaded to Tradingview. It's based on an indicator created by TheTradingParrot. It shows whether or not big whale accounts are taking BTC off exchanges (green) or onto exchanges (red). Right now we're seeing whales are moving BTC onto exchanges and this means we should be somewhat cautious as we see new highs, whales may be quick to dump if the ETF narrative weakens.
Overall, I think that there are many investors really wanting to see an opportunity to enter on a lower price. Therefore until that changes there isn't much chance there will be a major opportunity to get into the uptrend at a "cheap" price.
Those with patience are likely to see a greater than 12K retracement somewhere in the next 6 months but what will the local high be? $45k? $50?
65K
? Time will tell.
Good luck on your investments and trades in 2024.
25K
) and still be in an overall uptrend. In my view, the last hope for the bears was destroyed in October when BTC closed the week above that orange trend line. I don't believe I've adjusted the size of the yellow box we're in since I created it on the chart in 2022. It was meant to represent the potential high and low potential for this pre-halving period after the "Low" bar in December 2022. Right now we're at the very top of that box which shows Bitcoin is acting stronger than a normal cycle. That's really impressive given how strong the "Bitcoin is dead" narrative was 1 year ago.
I still assume that we won't make new all time highs ahead of the Bitcoin halving (~ April 2024), but if a bunch of ETFs are approved and they are advertising to win market share we could get an unprecedented price pop.
Indicators on the chart:
Bitcoin's price is supported by improvements in the Global Central Banks liquidity as shown in the top indicator panel which turned green in November 2023 after it's September 2023 low. I think Bitcoin believers should be wary of believing in Bitcoin narratives when they go against global liquidity which has run parallel to Bitcoin halving cycles for much of it's existence.
The BTC MVRV Z score indicator shows we're nowhere near the cycle top or bottom right now.
The BTC Flows indicator is a new open source indicator I've uploaded to Tradingview. It's based on an indicator created by TheTradingParrot. It shows whether or not big whale accounts are taking BTC off exchanges (green) or onto exchanges (red). Right now we're seeing whales are moving BTC onto exchanges and this means we should be somewhat cautious as we see new highs, whales may be quick to dump if the ETF narrative weakens.
Overall, I think that there are many investors really wanting to see an opportunity to enter on a lower price. Therefore until that changes there isn't much chance there will be a major opportunity to get into the uptrend at a "cheap" price.
Those with patience are likely to see a greater than 12K retracement somewhere in the next 6 months but what will the local high be? $45k? $50?
65K
? Time will tell. Good luck on your investments and trades in 2024.
Absorbing info with every cycle