*For the purposes of correct lexigram the author has changed the phrase ‘Death Cross’ to “Red Cross”!!!
For Bitcoin to confirm a breakout of the preceding Down Trending & Range Trend which has been occurring since 26th June 2020 BTCUSD must find a level of support above $10500 & continue to trend upwards from there, putting in higher lows & higher highs in the price action!
The test of the $10500 level (the current trends overhead resistance line) on 13th Feb 2020 was rejected down to currently (20th Feb 2020) the $9300 levels/ (wicked out of the current trends bottom support line).
The following analysis incorporates the following chart & indicators:
On the 4 Hour Chart & referring to the 20 Day Simple Moving Average (20 SMA) & the 200 Day Simple Moving Average (200 SMA),
on 5th January 2020, there was a Golden Cross where the 20 crossed up over the consequential underlying 200 which resulted in $3200 rally (45%) move to the upside starting at $7222 (5th Jan) to $10617 (13th Feb 2020).
On the 26th Jan 2020 price came from overhead to snap back to its underlying 200 SMA for a potential Red Cross but found support with its 20 SMA range & did not fall to put in the Red Cross so it continued to rally.
For the past 7 days since 13th Feb, price has declined within its channel which has narrowed the gap of the overhead 20 SMA & the underlying 200 SMA.
Looking at price action history now on the Daily Chart, where the $6000 levels seems to depict the bottom & $10500 levels seemingly depicting the top of this current market, we can call this a Range since price has “danced” around these two boundaries since May 2019. A break above $10500 can be considered a potential Breakout to the uptrend, a decline below $6000 levels can be considered a potential decline into a Downtrend.
BTCUSD requires momentum to accelerate above the current $10500 Levels & at the current levels of around $9500 this is potentially feasible!
BTCUSD seemingly wants to put in its Red Cross on the 4 Hour chart & this could potentially be a reason for the current downwards price action (as price seeks to narrow the gap of the over head 20 SMA & underlying 200 SMA & the 20 SMA seeks to cross underneath the 200 SMA).
With the Red Cross, we can expect some further Bearish price action (maybe close the CME Futures Gaps at the approximate $7500 & $8500 levels? These targets still remain within the Range trending channel (above $6500)! Until price potentially gets towards the $6500 Levels, it will be difficult to call the Market Bearish!
After a Red Cross on the 4 Hour we can look for opportunities to arise for longing out of a Proceeding Golden Cross!!
The $4.5K range between $6000 & $10500 is a large range to play by but dont forget it’s still a range and not a Trend so Shorting & Longing Trading may be hard to play since the trend is waiting for a breakout! confirmation either to the upside or downside.
To conclude, Traders can look at the 4 hour chart to gets its Red Cross for consolidation and then its Golden Cross for accelerated momentum to break the $10500 overhead resistance.
BTCUSD
Where price action stays within $6000 to $10500 levels a Trading strategy for playing in Ranges should be used as we await a decline below $6000 for shorting or breakout above $10500 for longs!
For Bitcoin to confirm a breakout of the preceding Down Trending & Range Trend which has been occurring since 26th June 2020 BTCUSD must find a level of support above $10500 & continue to trend upwards from there, putting in higher lows & higher highs in the price action!
The test of the $10500 level (the current trends overhead resistance line) on 13th Feb 2020 was rejected down to currently (20th Feb 2020) the $9300 levels/ (wicked out of the current trends bottom support line).
The following analysis incorporates the following chart & indicators:
On the 4 Hour Chart & referring to the 20 Day Simple Moving Average (20 SMA) & the 200 Day Simple Moving Average (200 SMA),
on 5th January 2020, there was a Golden Cross where the 20 crossed up over the consequential underlying 200 which resulted in $3200 rally (45%) move to the upside starting at $7222 (5th Jan) to $10617 (13th Feb 2020).
On the 26th Jan 2020 price came from overhead to snap back to its underlying 200 SMA for a potential Red Cross but found support with its 20 SMA range & did not fall to put in the Red Cross so it continued to rally.
For the past 7 days since 13th Feb, price has declined within its channel which has narrowed the gap of the overhead 20 SMA & the underlying 200 SMA.
Looking at price action history now on the Daily Chart, where the $6000 levels seems to depict the bottom & $10500 levels seemingly depicting the top of this current market, we can call this a Range since price has “danced” around these two boundaries since May 2019. A break above $10500 can be considered a potential Breakout to the uptrend, a decline below $6000 levels can be considered a potential decline into a Downtrend.
BTCUSD requires momentum to accelerate above the current $10500 Levels & at the current levels of around $9500 this is potentially feasible!
BTCUSD seemingly wants to put in its Red Cross on the 4 Hour chart & this could potentially be a reason for the current downwards price action (as price seeks to narrow the gap of the over head 20 SMA & underlying 200 SMA & the 20 SMA seeks to cross underneath the 200 SMA).
With the Red Cross, we can expect some further Bearish price action (maybe close the CME Futures Gaps at the approximate $7500 & $8500 levels? These targets still remain within the Range trending channel (above $6500)! Until price potentially gets towards the $6500 Levels, it will be difficult to call the Market Bearish!
After a Red Cross on the 4 Hour we can look for opportunities to arise for longing out of a Proceeding Golden Cross!!
The $4.5K range between $6000 & $10500 is a large range to play by but dont forget it’s still a range and not a Trend so Shorting & Longing Trading may be hard to play since the trend is waiting for a breakout! confirmation either to the upside or downside.
To conclude, Traders can look at the 4 hour chart to gets its Red Cross for consolidation and then its Golden Cross for accelerated momentum to break the $10500 overhead resistance.
BTCUSD
Where price action stays within $6000 to $10500 levels a Trading strategy for playing in Ranges should be used as we await a decline below $6000 for shorting or breakout above $10500 for longs!