BTC - 30 min RSI (8) strategy holding up well and I've made a few successful trades off the trendline breaks (both up and down) in the last few days.
Looking increasingly like an ascending triangle on the short term with either the median of the pitchfork or a lower steeper diagonal making up the base, and the horizontal running just above the 38.2% fib.
Traditionally, ascending triangles are expected to break upwards but given the unusual price action here this is less certain.
We are coming up to possible resistances on the longer timeframe - with two smaller channels since the decline from 10k and a the down trend from late January.
On the 4 hour we can also see an unconfirmed bearish divergence in the RSI, however for me the drop below 50 in between lessens the validity so I would like to keep an eye on it at this stage. (Excuse the pink lines from my 30min strategy!)
My other major tool I'm using for BTC right now is the Ichimoku cloud.
On the 4 hour we are slowing trickling through the thick area, which makes my bullish side nervous as typically large green candles coming through a thick cloud show me price strength. However we are still making progress and if the ascending triangle plays out we may see a pump through this horizontal resistance, the first possible resistance channel and the remainder of the cloud. If that happens I'll have to look more closely at the 8 hour cloud as this one has historically been quite an important turning point. At the moment the 8 hour cloud is optimistically weak.
Until we break the short term channels I can't say I'm bullish. Do I think the price will fall to sub-5k like so many others? At this stage no, at the previous low we saw over-sold levels matching both the April and June lows, coupled with bullish divergences on multiple indicators. The RSI hasn't rebounded excessively on the higher timeframes and the MFI showed strength off that base. I will wait for the next couple of days and see what reaction the price has when it hits these upcoming resistance channels and horizontals. If we see a strong rejection then I will reconsider.
Looking increasingly like an ascending triangle on the short term with either the median of the pitchfork or a lower steeper diagonal making up the base, and the horizontal running just above the 38.2% fib.
Traditionally, ascending triangles are expected to break upwards but given the unusual price action here this is less certain.
We are coming up to possible resistances on the longer timeframe - with two smaller channels since the decline from 10k and a the down trend from late January.
On the 4 hour we can also see an unconfirmed bearish divergence in the RSI, however for me the drop below 50 in between lessens the validity so I would like to keep an eye on it at this stage. (Excuse the pink lines from my 30min strategy!)
My other major tool I'm using for BTC right now is the Ichimoku cloud.
On the 4 hour we are slowing trickling through the thick area, which makes my bullish side nervous as typically large green candles coming through a thick cloud show me price strength. However we are still making progress and if the ascending triangle plays out we may see a pump through this horizontal resistance, the first possible resistance channel and the remainder of the cloud. If that happens I'll have to look more closely at the 8 hour cloud as this one has historically been quite an important turning point. At the moment the 8 hour cloud is optimistically weak.
Until we break the short term channels I can't say I'm bullish. Do I think the price will fall to sub-5k like so many others? At this stage no, at the previous low we saw over-sold levels matching both the April and June lows, coupled with bullish divergences on multiple indicators. The RSI hasn't rebounded excessively on the higher timeframes and the MFI showed strength off that base. I will wait for the next couple of days and see what reaction the price has when it hits these upcoming resistance channels and horizontals. If we see a strong rejection then I will reconsider.
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