SMC ANALYSIS: BTC not in accumulation yet. 15k on the horizon.
Based on structural analysis, I believe that Bitcoin will retry to capture the 31K region again for a BOS confirmation... It is not guaranteed that we put in a weekly candle that confirms above the structural high, but without it, the case is very ugly for Bitcoin.
Here is my takeaway from the initial structural breakdown (The CHoCH to the downside).
While this does not YET confirm a structural break to the downside, I can ironclad guarantee you that that price will go back down to retest the low at 15500 to either verify the BOS breakdown with a weekly candle body, or we will see a liquidity wick there.
There is also a bullish signal that is setting up. Again, the BOS to the upside has to develop, meaning we clear that weekly candle body above 31k. After that, I foresee a hard breakdown to the 15k retest area.
I highly suggest that you start unloading your bitcoins around the 31k area if you're holding long term as the price will drop by around 50%.
Again, the 15k retest is a guarantee. Structurally the CHoCH to the downside has to test the low to establish the BOS or draw liquidity from it.
For BTC to remain bullish, we need to see the 31k retest confirm and price to wick on the weekly candle at the 15.5k retest.
If price fails to confirm a BOS structural high and confirms below the retest, Bitcoin will still go up to a certain level for retracement, but overall the bullish structure will be broken and I foresee 5300 or lower before we can look for a reversal.
Here is my takeaway from the initial structural breakdown (The CHoCH to the downside).
While this does not YET confirm a structural break to the downside, I can ironclad guarantee you that that price will go back down to retest the low at 15500 to either verify the BOS breakdown with a weekly candle body, or we will see a liquidity wick there.
There is also a bullish signal that is setting up. Again, the BOS to the upside has to develop, meaning we clear that weekly candle body above 31k. After that, I foresee a hard breakdown to the 15k retest area.
I highly suggest that you start unloading your bitcoins around the 31k area if you're holding long term as the price will drop by around 50%.
Again, the 15k retest is a guarantee. Structurally the CHoCH to the downside has to test the low to establish the BOS or draw liquidity from it.
For BTC to remain bullish, we need to see the 31k retest confirm and price to wick on the weekly candle at the 15.5k retest.
If price fails to confirm a BOS structural high and confirms below the retest, Bitcoin will still go up to a certain level for retracement, but overall the bullish structure will be broken and I foresee 5300 or lower before we can look for a reversal.