Price action does according supply/demand, bullish/bearish sentiments, proper fundamentals, news , but also on self fulfilling prophecy as a result of various technical analysis strategies and tools. Price then goes where the most people think it could go … a very elementary notion for the experts but not for newbies
As it remains mostly true , new assets like Cryptocurrencies, have rise up in a time where fundamental are now more based ( to a certain extend ) on any kind of hype than the real price value based on a proper production success .. and there is not much production behind crypto and still less real application than promises ( without disrespect ) .
Also some of the new participants, miners and investors profiles differ a lot from traditional professional traders .
Of course, the late ones involved (i exclude early birds miners) dont represent a majority of the « retail traders » but they may be now enough to be taken into account.
As a particular fact, most of this newcomers are not too much interested into properly learning how to trade because they simply came here for another reason : they want to make money . So their mindset is based on the fact that Bitcoin is a very easy opportunity which shouldn’t be missed. This specific new kind of approach could deserve a complete sociological analysis, but to make a long story short, we can actually observe the same kind of behavior in many fields and activities. Things go fast nowadays, people are impatient and it is considered smart to use shortcuts and easy solutions…
So most of these new "traders" do not master TA, and they place their convictions and dreams above the rest and sometimes above evidences .. (and some of them, but not all of them, eventually buy at the top and sell at the lowest )
But today’s subject is to question you guys : experts, long time professionals traders, and anyone having something to say, about the following points :
- A/ Is Bitcoin price acting a bit as an « alien » compared to any other asset ?
- B/ Without excluding the supremacy of market makers, can we consider that some kind of influence on price action could have been generated by this community of believers ,hodlers, hype followers .. (as maybe on the example above of the weekly bearish candle of November 2017 followed by an ATH )
- C/ Should we start to be more aware of constant unexpected moves and be prudent instead of completely referring to classical based on years of experience TA ? :
like on some recent price action exemples on BTC/USD pair :
- Where has gone expected retrace to 14 k, then to 19,5 k , then to 21,5 k , then to 24 k ……?
- What happened to the expected 30k wall ?
- Has Elon's pump avoid a inevitable big dump after bouncing again on 33K resistance
- Where has this impulse above 54k come from ?
I am looking forward to reading your comments. I also wish to keep my passion for learning, especially since i have realised that the journey is more fulfilling than the goal.
i am not native english speaking, therefore i apologize for any mistake within the te above text.
Thank you all and thank you to Tradingview ,