Hello guys ... BTC has certainly been bullish lately, but I think we are seeing signs of distribution now. I actually expect one more push up to around 9970 territory, just observing my gann box and EW count. My Gann box indicates we are stuck in a tight triangle, and if we break up, it will reach around 9970 where we also have a Gann fibo and historical resistance. The Gann box suggests this will happen around June 21 - 23.
After that I expect some cooling off ... a corrective wave.
This dark green dashed line has got to be important. Back in Nov 2018 when BTC broke down from it, we reached a low of around 3200. The in May we climbed through it and bull euphoria was set in motion. Early June we back checked this line ... and then we made an all time high for the past 12 months! Exciting days.
I now see the news going crazy, and I also see people projecting BTC is going to $26,000 by next month. I'd say we should keep our cool. A healthy correction makes for a healthy rally. Breaking 12k, 15k and certainly 20k is not going to be an easy task, and it isn't going to happen if people are stuck in fiat waiting for a correction. A correction allows people to enter long ... and that restricts supply (assuming people will then want to hold believing we will revisit 20k). This recent rally caught many off guard ... and they now logically wait for a correction to make sure they aren't buying the top.
Once a correction does happen, I think this dark green dashed line will be important. If it holds ... 77XX is a target. There is also a GANN line there to support it ... if that doesn't hold, it could get ugly, but 6000 to 66XX would be a zone of interest.
Good luck!
Do not use this for trading, investment, financial decisions. For educational purposes only.
After that I expect some cooling off ... a corrective wave.
This dark green dashed line has got to be important. Back in Nov 2018 when BTC broke down from it, we reached a low of around 3200. The in May we climbed through it and bull euphoria was set in motion. Early June we back checked this line ... and then we made an all time high for the past 12 months! Exciting days.
I now see the news going crazy, and I also see people projecting BTC is going to $26,000 by next month. I'd say we should keep our cool. A healthy correction makes for a healthy rally. Breaking 12k, 15k and certainly 20k is not going to be an easy task, and it isn't going to happen if people are stuck in fiat waiting for a correction. A correction allows people to enter long ... and that restricts supply (assuming people will then want to hold believing we will revisit 20k). This recent rally caught many off guard ... and they now logically wait for a correction to make sure they aren't buying the top.
Once a correction does happen, I think this dark green dashed line will be important. If it holds ... 77XX is a target. There is also a GANN line there to support it ... if that doesn't hold, it could get ugly, but 6000 to 66XX would be a zone of interest.
Good luck!
Do not use this for trading, investment, financial decisions. For educational purposes only.
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In case anyone wants to see the gann box ... here it is ... many lines, but I point out the path I think it will take. EW says we are completing wave 5 ... need one more push up. So it coincides with breaking where the two gann lines pinch the price ... then up to the next gann line and gann fibo (99XX).
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Looks like the bulls may trigger some stops that are most obviously sitting around the 9510 area ... that will take us up to ??? I still have 9970 in mind, but if by some miracle they manage to crack the 10k nut, we can go to 10,300 level according to my next gann line.
Not getting overly excited, but I do think today we will post a new high and soon will head into a much needed, healthy correction ... at least I hope so! :)
Not getting overly excited, but I do think today we will post a new high and soon will head into a much needed, healthy correction ... at least I hope so! :)
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There's the "pop", let's see how far it can take us. My gann plot says it's pretty open all the way up to 9750.
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9923 on June 21 ... close enough? I projected 9970 between June 21 and June 23. I think GANN works. Now, we might still go to 10,300 ... it's possible in the next couple of days ... but BTC desperately needs a correction. Only whale manipulation will get it to 12k without a correction.
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I have to admit, that wave 5 extension to 11,300 blew my mind. Can't believe how bullish this is ... and I think it's gone up way too fast, desperately needs a correction. Anyhow, my EW count says this wave up is now over, and we should start correcting. Let's see. I still have 7700 in mind, but if that support fails, 66XX is the next major area I'm looking at, and after that we could end up as low as 57XX. I don't think we'll go much lower than that.
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Not sure what happened to TV, my Finex chart has lost all my data. Anyhow, not an issue, rebuilt another chart.
This chart shows we are clearly making a correction, and I expect this to be an ABC.
We've completed waves A and B and are likely forming C now. This chart shows where I believe it will bounce ... we can never be certain about the bottom, so this shows possibilities. So really my strategy is to ladder my longs ... 9750, 8600, 8200, 7600. Most likely support level right now for me is the 8600 to 9000 area.
Please note a couple of things ... this is a critical correction for BTC. If we see bullish activation in the 8600 to 9200 range, I truly believe we will revisit ATH. HOWEVER, some people think we are making an ABC to a new low. Wave A was from 20k to 3.1k, wave B up to 13.7k and now we are making wave C down to $1k ??? For me, that would be game over for BTC for a long time ... it would be another year of bear (just like all of 2018).
I know a lot of people are bullish right now (a lot) ... and I'm going with this being a healthy correction in a bull run ... which means I don't want to miss this bottom.
Second, because I have a view that this is a healthy correction ... and the next wave is going to be insane ... I am using all my fiat to buy long term hold of BTC. I won't be selling that until we see a new ATH. However, we do need to be cautious of the ABC down to $1k ... and I think our magic line at 7600 is what we need to watch out for. A clear break below this could be a signal to cash out and protect capital. But if we get that close, I'll be scrutinizing the exit strategy a bit closer.
Be careful! For educational purposes only.
This chart shows we are clearly making a correction, and I expect this to be an ABC.
We've completed waves A and B and are likely forming C now. This chart shows where I believe it will bounce ... we can never be certain about the bottom, so this shows possibilities. So really my strategy is to ladder my longs ... 9750, 8600, 8200, 7600. Most likely support level right now for me is the 8600 to 9000 area.
Please note a couple of things ... this is a critical correction for BTC. If we see bullish activation in the 8600 to 9200 range, I truly believe we will revisit ATH. HOWEVER, some people think we are making an ABC to a new low. Wave A was from 20k to 3.1k, wave B up to 13.7k and now we are making wave C down to $1k ??? For me, that would be game over for BTC for a long time ... it would be another year of bear (just like all of 2018).
I know a lot of people are bullish right now (a lot) ... and I'm going with this being a healthy correction in a bull run ... which means I don't want to miss this bottom.
Second, because I have a view that this is a healthy correction ... and the next wave is going to be insane ... I am using all my fiat to buy long term hold of BTC. I won't be selling that until we see a new ATH. However, we do need to be cautious of the ABC down to $1k ... and I think our magic line at 7600 is what we need to watch out for. A clear break below this could be a signal to cash out and protect capital. But if we get that close, I'll be scrutinizing the exit strategy a bit closer.
Be careful! For educational purposes only.
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Just an update, I think this rally is actually B wave ... it could go up to 12200, then down to around 8500. May take time to play out.
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Not sure what the market is up to ... maybe this ABC will be over sooner than I original thought. Seems the whole market is very impatient and wants fast moves.
Right now, I see this as a possibility ... look at the potential support areas.
Right now, I see this as a possibility ... look at the potential support areas.
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We may be on our way down now! Could be a good time to set up your buy targets!
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If she's not ready to dump yet, it could do something like this.
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Stop hunting .... that's what this is. Up and down.
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As per the above black line sketch ... I think this is what is happening a the moment. Could go higher to around 12.2k where the fibo sits. This is what I see happening now.
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I want to point out where we have to be careful of EW theory application. This is another possible interpretation. There's different types of waves, and really it is important to match the wave with market sentiment. The one below says the market is EXTREMELY bullish ... there would be a very, very quick correction to the 0.382 fibo and now we are basically moving up to 17k/18k. But ask yourself, does it feel like bull euphoria right now, or confusion? Confusion means sideways waves (triangles mostly). If there is a small bias, it could be diagonals, or wedges. Here, I personally think the market is NOT ready to go up ... there is hesitation. That is my guess. And so I continue to plot the ABC and expect one more good downward pulse, down to the 0.5 fibo. It could take much more time than I've shown here. Wave B can easily extend another 3 to 7 days. That would not surprise me ...
Anyhow, the point is, I could be wrong ... so what to do with this situation. I bought SOME BTC when we hit the 0.382 fibo at 9755. I hold that (no stops to avoid being wicked out). If I'm wrong and it goes up, I gain capital. If I am right, I have fiat to buy more BTC.
Anyhow, the point is, I could be wrong ... so what to do with this situation. I bought SOME BTC when we hit the 0.382 fibo at 9755. I hold that (no stops to avoid being wicked out). If I'm wrong and it goes up, I gain capital. If I am right, I have fiat to buy more BTC.
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Here's our problem people. Up or down ... EW allows you to explain what happened to price movement ... very easy in retrospect. But going forward, there are different interpretations. Normally I'd say the pink wave is in play ... but here's why I've been hedging on the red wave. The correction from 13.7k was WAY too fast to be over that quick in 3 days, after almost 1 month of rising from 5k! When something crashes down that fast, you'd expect it to keep going. But here's the catch, if whales decided to accumulate here, and at the same time keep the price in the 10k to 11k range, they can keep the market bullish. We'd all turn and say "look it hardly dropped, this thing is going to 100k!" And just like that they convert that red wave to that pink wave.
At this stage, I can advise ... most of my short positions as well as other trader's shorts have been unsuccessful. So, I am not shorting ... I'm looking to long bottoms only, until I see bears take over totally.
The second is we only have confirmation of the pink wave IF we break that 13.7k peak printed a few weeks ago. Food for thought ... trade the break out, or let it break out and hope for a test of 13.7k as support, where BTC could be longed? Tricky ... a break out could go up fast.
Why wouldn't I just buy right now??? The red wave is still possible. So, unless you think you have a great entry and can apply a tight stop ... the whales will probably take your money.
At this stage, I can advise ... most of my short positions as well as other trader's shorts have been unsuccessful. So, I am not shorting ... I'm looking to long bottoms only, until I see bears take over totally.
The second is we only have confirmation of the pink wave IF we break that 13.7k peak printed a few weeks ago. Food for thought ... trade the break out, or let it break out and hope for a test of 13.7k as support, where BTC could be longed? Tricky ... a break out could go up fast.
Why wouldn't I just buy right now??? The red wave is still possible. So, unless you think you have a great entry and can apply a tight stop ... the whales will probably take your money.
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OK, so we know the red wave I've been plotting is now real. Wave B took us much higher than I thought it would around 13.1k ... but now we are most definitely making wave C of the ABC correction. I expect it to stop somewhere between 9050 and 9500 (current levels).
