As we can see the head and shoulders on Bitcoin played out and we had a cascading long squeeze effect that broke through the 200ma weekly, the descending broadening wedge, and the larger symmetrical triangle.
Call me crazy but I don't think this crash is a bad thing for bitcoin overall as I believe too much volume has been on leverage platforms and not as much on the spot market to drive prices up more organically as more investors buy in. If your one of the 10 percent or whatever the number is that makes a decent profit trading then for sure stick with it but for the majority buying from the spot market at these levels and hodling for a few years would make a lot more sense.
One thing many people have missed is the 300ma (the blue line) and how close we got to touching it. To me the buy back was so strong that I don't believe we will see a level that low again, I think there will be too many buys set above there now that weren't there before because so many people had faith that we wouldn't break below the historic trend line and there was so much bullishness leading up towards the halving.
Many influencer's and technical analysts are bearish pointing out the correlation to the stock markets, the looming economic crisis, Corona virus, the oil war between Russia and the Saudi's etc.
They also point to correlations between Bitcoin and gold and precious metals as not being a store of value in a recession. But something they fail to consider here is how volatile Bitcoin is where as gold silver etc can bleed out for a long time like in 2008 when gold lost 30 percent of it's value in around 7 months. Also if you zoom out on gold there that was in the middle of a massive decade long bull run so the dip didn't mean that much in the great scheme of things.
The thing that gets me is that bitcoin has seen a heavy bear market that began over two years ago and lasted till at least lets say May '19 then basically went through a second smaller bear cycle from July '19 till now where as the stock market has been in a massive bull market since 2009. So yes when you overlay the two charts there is plenty of correlation but I think there are differences too that people aren't putting enough weight on.
Technically the stock market is in bear market territory now as it dropped over 20% though that happened so fast I don't know whether that should qualify and whether it will continue or whether it can be propped up for longer.
Regardless of all of these external factors I would like to think that if we close the weekly back within the triangle or better still above the 200ma also then I think we will like look back on on this flash crash as just another nasty wick like the ones that broke through the 200ma in January 2015 and the two in August 2015.
My long term outlook is that we remain in the triangle for some time before eventually breaking it to the upside and continuing on a bull run that will be like that of 2015-2017 though I think it may be lengthened and less exponential due to the fact that we are further along on bitcoins logarithmic regression.
I still believe many alt coins with strong fundamentals will outpace bitcoin throughout this next bull cycle because of their comparative market caps and being much earlier on in there logarithmic regression paths. I think the rate of adoption of good projects including Bitcoin will gradually rise as people slowly begin to have faith again in them being a good long term store of value.
Any feedback is welcomed.
Call me crazy but I don't think this crash is a bad thing for bitcoin overall as I believe too much volume has been on leverage platforms and not as much on the spot market to drive prices up more organically as more investors buy in. If your one of the 10 percent or whatever the number is that makes a decent profit trading then for sure stick with it but for the majority buying from the spot market at these levels and hodling for a few years would make a lot more sense.
One thing many people have missed is the 300ma (the blue line) and how close we got to touching it. To me the buy back was so strong that I don't believe we will see a level that low again, I think there will be too many buys set above there now that weren't there before because so many people had faith that we wouldn't break below the historic trend line and there was so much bullishness leading up towards the halving.
Many influencer's and technical analysts are bearish pointing out the correlation to the stock markets, the looming economic crisis, Corona virus, the oil war between Russia and the Saudi's etc.
They also point to correlations between Bitcoin and gold and precious metals as not being a store of value in a recession. But something they fail to consider here is how volatile Bitcoin is where as gold silver etc can bleed out for a long time like in 2008 when gold lost 30 percent of it's value in around 7 months. Also if you zoom out on gold there that was in the middle of a massive decade long bull run so the dip didn't mean that much in the great scheme of things.
The thing that gets me is that bitcoin has seen a heavy bear market that began over two years ago and lasted till at least lets say May '19 then basically went through a second smaller bear cycle from July '19 till now where as the stock market has been in a massive bull market since 2009. So yes when you overlay the two charts there is plenty of correlation but I think there are differences too that people aren't putting enough weight on.
Technically the stock market is in bear market territory now as it dropped over 20% though that happened so fast I don't know whether that should qualify and whether it will continue or whether it can be propped up for longer.
Regardless of all of these external factors I would like to think that if we close the weekly back within the triangle or better still above the 200ma also then I think we will like look back on on this flash crash as just another nasty wick like the ones that broke through the 200ma in January 2015 and the two in August 2015.
My long term outlook is that we remain in the triangle for some time before eventually breaking it to the upside and continuing on a bull run that will be like that of 2015-2017 though I think it may be lengthened and less exponential due to the fact that we are further along on bitcoins logarithmic regression.
I still believe many alt coins with strong fundamentals will outpace bitcoin throughout this next bull cycle because of their comparative market caps and being much earlier on in there logarithmic regression paths. I think the rate of adoption of good projects including Bitcoin will gradually rise as people slowly begin to have faith again in them being a good long term store of value.
Any feedback is welcomed.