The tension in the market is palpable. BTC has tested 44k eight times now. Soon, it may break out upwards in significant jumps and pumps. However, there's a considerable amount of FUD in the atmosphere due to the ETF approval story. We'll hear the SEC's decision next week, probably on January 9 or 10. Until then, we may stay in this range and test 44k more times.
It's crucial to recognize that ETF approval is not a new story. In 2020, BTC wasn't approved by the SEC for an ETF, and shortly after, it reached 69K. So, a non-approval might not be as bad as feared. The approval process itself is interesting, not just for the approval but for the new perspectives that arise from this significant step in the real world.
When the SEC does approve the ETF, things might get really crazy on that day. Altcoins might jump up by 10 percent in just one hour. Lately, alts have been dropping fast, in many cases, 10 or 20%, while BTC only dropped 1.5% from its highest point of the year. This phenomenon is not new; we always see alts following BTC later when something as important as the approval of an ETF is imminent. We observed the same thing happening in 2020. People tend to move coins to BTC, thinking this decision is crucial for this coin, although alts will follow with even bigger gains later on. Movement in alts is more volatile because people trade alts less than BTC.
There's considerable fear in the market now that approval might not take place. However, this time, it looks a bit different; ETF approval is closer than ever, at least closer than in 2020.
BTC is only 16 years old now, and approval can be seen as an exam. If BTC passes the test in the eyes of the SEC, it will become more mainstream. Pension funds might step in, and we all know they have billions of euros and USD, which could cause a bull rally that lasts for a year.
There's a slight chance, though, that the ETF will be approved in phases. In that case, there will be a combination of hesitancy and euphoria.
It's crucial to recognize that ETF approval is not a new story. In 2020, BTC wasn't approved by the SEC for an ETF, and shortly after, it reached 69K. So, a non-approval might not be as bad as feared. The approval process itself is interesting, not just for the approval but for the new perspectives that arise from this significant step in the real world.
When the SEC does approve the ETF, things might get really crazy on that day. Altcoins might jump up by 10 percent in just one hour. Lately, alts have been dropping fast, in many cases, 10 or 20%, while BTC only dropped 1.5% from its highest point of the year. This phenomenon is not new; we always see alts following BTC later when something as important as the approval of an ETF is imminent. We observed the same thing happening in 2020. People tend to move coins to BTC, thinking this decision is crucial for this coin, although alts will follow with even bigger gains later on. Movement in alts is more volatile because people trade alts less than BTC.
There's considerable fear in the market now that approval might not take place. However, this time, it looks a bit different; ETF approval is closer than ever, at least closer than in 2020.
BTC is only 16 years old now, and approval can be seen as an exam. If BTC passes the test in the eyes of the SEC, it will become more mainstream. Pension funds might step in, and we all know they have billions of euros and USD, which could cause a bull rally that lasts for a year.
There's a slight chance, though, that the ETF will be approved in phases. In that case, there will be a combination of hesitancy and euphoria.