This is not a crystal ball prediction of what BTC WILL do, but one of the possible paths it could take. The assumption in this scenario is that we are experiencing a longer term consolidation before attempting a move to a new ATH. It seems completely counterintuitive that BTC would run up right now, with the ecosystem still not being fully regulated (i.e. no institutional money coming in, no matter what people tell you), with no news to justify a new run up and a possible recession looming. Contrary to popular belief, people do not run to speculative assets in times of recession. And no, commodities like gold don't do well either. Go and check.
So, what might be playing out? What follows now is 100% speculation... (tinfoil hat on)
You need to understand that BTC has printing presses. These are the miners. They invest (tens of) millions in hardware to mine as many coins as they can. Already the original idea of BTC being mined by its actual users has been completely and utterly shattered by highly centralised mining. Mining is a high risk, high reward business and it is cut-throat AF. Next year we will see the halvening and this will put even more pressure on miners to remain profitable.
Bitmain recently introduced a new miner, making it necessary for serious mining operations to upgrade. This is a significant investment. Now, my theory is that at least one consortium has been smart and has not sold all the mined coins immediately to keep the lights on (as most miners do), but has in fact been accumulating most of the coins it has mined. Probably together with some partners, they wash traded the price to the extremely technical top of 14K, and started to sell the coins they had accumulated to pay Bitmain for all the new miners they needed. Once that operation was partly in place, they started dumping to make mining unprofitable for operators still using old tech. We are not near the price where the other miners will hang up their hats yet. That price is closer to <6K, hence the projected 618/65 retracement in the chart. It also needs to last a while, because a flash crash won't flush out the competition. They may start pumping the price again, close to the halvening, so they can maximise their profit strategy.
Interestingly, they can do so at very little actual cost by shorting the price of BTC on the CME before dumping the coins. Another reason why this market will never work unless we get regulation. Fast.
(/tinfoil hat off)
In any case, whatever the reason, the market will respond technically. Even if big holders dump, the market responds technically. If a big buyer shows up, the market responds technically. In fact, big moves are orchestrated, but the operators doing so USE technical analysis to determine when and at which levels to act.
FWIW, price doesn't have to come down to the perfect 618 retracement. Turning on the pivot would also be perfectly acceptable. Reason I think one more leg down is the RSI still has some room to get to the 'support level I find most logical'. However, BTC doesn't care about what I find most logical. The current zone is definitely a no-trading zone, unless you really know what you are doing.
Take it with a grain of salt. There are 4 other scenarios that are likely. I will add those later.
So, what might be playing out? What follows now is 100% speculation... (tinfoil hat on)
You need to understand that BTC has printing presses. These are the miners. They invest (tens of) millions in hardware to mine as many coins as they can. Already the original idea of BTC being mined by its actual users has been completely and utterly shattered by highly centralised mining. Mining is a high risk, high reward business and it is cut-throat AF. Next year we will see the halvening and this will put even more pressure on miners to remain profitable.
Bitmain recently introduced a new miner, making it necessary for serious mining operations to upgrade. This is a significant investment. Now, my theory is that at least one consortium has been smart and has not sold all the mined coins immediately to keep the lights on (as most miners do), but has in fact been accumulating most of the coins it has mined. Probably together with some partners, they wash traded the price to the extremely technical top of 14K, and started to sell the coins they had accumulated to pay Bitmain for all the new miners they needed. Once that operation was partly in place, they started dumping to make mining unprofitable for operators still using old tech. We are not near the price where the other miners will hang up their hats yet. That price is closer to <6K, hence the projected 618/65 retracement in the chart. It also needs to last a while, because a flash crash won't flush out the competition. They may start pumping the price again, close to the halvening, so they can maximise their profit strategy.
Interestingly, they can do so at very little actual cost by shorting the price of BTC on the CME before dumping the coins. Another reason why this market will never work unless we get regulation. Fast.
(/tinfoil hat off)
In any case, whatever the reason, the market will respond technically. Even if big holders dump, the market responds technically. If a big buyer shows up, the market responds technically. In fact, big moves are orchestrated, but the operators doing so USE technical analysis to determine when and at which levels to act.
FWIW, price doesn't have to come down to the perfect 618 retracement. Turning on the pivot would also be perfectly acceptable. Reason I think one more leg down is the RSI still has some room to get to the 'support level I find most logical'. However, BTC doesn't care about what I find most logical. The current zone is definitely a no-trading zone, unless you really know what you are doing.
Take it with a grain of salt. There are 4 other scenarios that are likely. I will add those later.
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