Historical Average Bear Market Studies.. Applied To Bitcoin.
Quite a few things going on within this chart, but what I'm trying to convey is actually very simple.
The chart is based off a few key models which have been used with tremendous accuracy for over a century.
Model 1) Bear markets will usually last about 18 months in duration.
Model 2) Bear markets will usually last about 1/3 as long as the previous bull.
Model 3) Average Model 1 and Model 2.
Blue Vertical Line: 18 Month Marker
.. Based on the historical average duration of bear markets.
Red Vertical Line: Bull Run Divided By 3
.. Based on the notion that a bear market will typically last
about 1/3 as long as the previous bull market. Historically
this is very accurate.
Yellow Vertical Line: Average of Both Bear Market Studies
.. Averaging both studies gives us a mean and a "prime"
timing window to hunt investment grade opportunities.
Purple Vertical Rectangle: The Window To Focus In On
... If you're long term bullish on this asset.
Key points here:
1) We've already retraced well beyond 78.6% of the entire range from bottom to top (from $109 to $19,800) - What I would consider Investment Grade location.
2) If history tends to repeat itself or rhyme... we're in the sweet spot in terms of TIMING a purchase, being right in between both of our historically accurate bear market studies.
3) Comparing this pice action to the 2015 bear market, we're actually in about the exact same location as we were in 2015 when the market bottomed. Right in between 78.6 retracement and 88.6% retracement . Anecdotal evidence we may be bottoming now.
4) "Buy When It Snows, Sell When It Goes" - Old adage in the stock market which has merit. Should you base your investment decisions based entirely off a saying on wall street? Absolutely not. But here we are coming out of the winter and in to crypto's favorite time of the year. Seasonality wise, we consistently see the market lift in the spring and in to the summer.
5) Internally - **NOT shown on this chart for the sake of keeping it clean and readable.
*Volume breakout shown on OBV.
*Looong double momentum divergence confirmed, shown in the MACD.
*Embedded momentum oscilator trying to break out of oversold. I use a modified W%R, but something more common like RSI or stochastics would give you the same reading.
*Overall the Weekly internals look massively bullish. Just keep in mind this is a WEEKLY chart. Each candle takes a week to print. So this DOES NOT MEAN that you can expect upward movement from this point forward. In many cases after the Weekly charts start showing buy signals, it can easily take a month before any significant price movement occurs. So be weary of the timeframe I'm referring to.
6) Final confirmation for me is a weekly close above $4040.99. At this point I'm not "betting the farm," but I will be exchanging a considerable amount of USD holdings back in to Bitcoin.
The chart is based off a few key models which have been used with tremendous accuracy for over a century.
Model 1) Bear markets will usually last about 18 months in duration.
Model 2) Bear markets will usually last about 1/3 as long as the previous bull.
Model 3) Average Model 1 and Model 2.
Blue Vertical Line: 18 Month Marker
.. Based on the historical average duration of bear markets.
Red Vertical Line: Bull Run Divided By 3
.. Based on the notion that a bear market will typically last
about 1/3 as long as the previous bull market. Historically
this is very accurate.
Yellow Vertical Line: Average of Both Bear Market Studies
.. Averaging both studies gives us a mean and a "prime"
timing window to hunt investment grade opportunities.
Purple Vertical Rectangle: The Window To Focus In On
... If you're long term bullish on this asset.
Key points here:
1) We've already retraced well beyond 78.6% of the entire range from bottom to top (from $109 to $19,800) - What I would consider Investment Grade location.
2) If history tends to repeat itself or rhyme... we're in the sweet spot in terms of TIMING a purchase, being right in between both of our historically accurate bear market studies.
3) Comparing this pice action to the 2015 bear market, we're actually in about the exact same location as we were in 2015 when the market bottomed. Right in between 78.6 retracement and 88.6% retracement . Anecdotal evidence we may be bottoming now.
4) "Buy When It Snows, Sell When It Goes" - Old adage in the stock market which has merit. Should you base your investment decisions based entirely off a saying on wall street? Absolutely not. But here we are coming out of the winter and in to crypto's favorite time of the year. Seasonality wise, we consistently see the market lift in the spring and in to the summer.
5) Internally - **NOT shown on this chart for the sake of keeping it clean and readable.
*Volume breakout shown on OBV.
*Looong double momentum divergence confirmed, shown in the MACD.
*Embedded momentum oscilator trying to break out of oversold. I use a modified W%R, but something more common like RSI or stochastics would give you the same reading.
*Overall the Weekly internals look massively bullish. Just keep in mind this is a WEEKLY chart. Each candle takes a week to print. So this DOES NOT MEAN that you can expect upward movement from this point forward. In many cases after the Weekly charts start showing buy signals, it can easily take a month before any significant price movement occurs. So be weary of the timeframe I'm referring to.
6) Final confirmation for me is a weekly close above $4040.99. At this point I'm not "betting the farm," but I will be exchanging a considerable amount of USD holdings back in to Bitcoin.