BTC/USD - Sustained weakness in the monthly chart
This monthly chart of BTC shows the present weakness we are still in - and which may continue for several more months. Look especially at the recent bearish crossover on the MACD (marked with a red arrow), which happened in June 2018.
Starting from mid December 2017 price started moving in a downward channel marked by the blue channel lines in this chart. Since May 2018 it seems that price is moving within the pink channel - which is around the upper line of the previous blue channel, but still very much downward.
I think that if and when BTC finally breaks USD 6,000 to the downside, and later on perhaps also breaks USD 5,000, that the stress and pain level of bulls will significantly rise - especially if we would stay in a USD 3,000 to 5,000 range for an extended period of time, say for several months.
I think that the nature and intent of such price action is to force weak hands out of the market, with strong hands taking the long-term buying opportunity (in their view). So, the nature of the price action seems all about weak hands versus strong hands, short-term versus long-term view.
So, it is up to us whether to be bullish or bearish on BTC long term - whether to have a short-term or long-term view - and consequently whether to have weak hands or strong hands.
I remain bullish on Bitcoin long term, for fundamental reasons, and I will keep patient and start buying in increments below USD 5,000 and then not sell whatever news happens that may shake my long-term bullish view - I will simply not sell, no matter what. And I will at the same time also keep a lot of cash on the sideline, in case of a sudden real sell-off in the months to come and the buying opportunities that may then present themselves.
Good luck trading.
Starting from mid December 2017 price started moving in a downward channel marked by the blue channel lines in this chart. Since May 2018 it seems that price is moving within the pink channel - which is around the upper line of the previous blue channel, but still very much downward.
I think that if and when BTC finally breaks USD 6,000 to the downside, and later on perhaps also breaks USD 5,000, that the stress and pain level of bulls will significantly rise - especially if we would stay in a USD 3,000 to 5,000 range for an extended period of time, say for several months.
I think that the nature and intent of such price action is to force weak hands out of the market, with strong hands taking the long-term buying opportunity (in their view). So, the nature of the price action seems all about weak hands versus strong hands, short-term versus long-term view.
So, it is up to us whether to be bullish or bearish on BTC long term - whether to have a short-term or long-term view - and consequently whether to have weak hands or strong hands.
I remain bullish on Bitcoin long term, for fundamental reasons, and I will keep patient and start buying in increments below USD 5,000 and then not sell whatever news happens that may shake my long-term bullish view - I will simply not sell, no matter what. And I will at the same time also keep a lot of cash on the sideline, in case of a sudden real sell-off in the months to come and the buying opportunities that may then present themselves.
Good luck trading.
Comment:
It will be interesting to see when we break out of this pink channel.
It is all Fibonacci.