Some like running. Others like direction. Some just want to feel the breeze again. You will long for the past and try to repeat what you did to succeed, only to realize that nothing lasts forever.
I don't think this pattern of lower lows in percentages of bullish stocks, and higher lows in bitcoin price, will last forever. If money printing stops and lending dries up, maybe bitcoin will go sideways for a while? Although institutional selling has happened, did the crowd sell yet? I don't know. If it did, maybe the green divergence pattern plays out, otherwise the red might come true?
Considering that we reached 17% of stocks bullish, that could seem like some sort of bottom, as was the case in 2015. But this entire chart is focused on a bull equities market, and so it is not reasonable to adjust our expectations towards past results. In my opinion, we should only use it as a reference of severity or volatility. Lately there is this pattern of lower lows in the Percentage of Stocks, and if the market is truly bearish, we should get a low that is lower than 17%, the current low, as seems to be implied in the chart in a megaphone-like pattern (grey line). Maybe it won't go to 6% like in 2020, but I have a hard time believing that. What was going to play out then, clearly has not yet played out and was delayed via bailouts. One might consider that because of the severe volatility 2020, it is not reasonable to expect a lower low in the percentage of stocks, which I think is a reasonable consideration, but it is not clear yet if the bearish momentum has finished playing out in terms of stock prices, especially large caps.
Bitcoin price wise, I think we could linger on a bit here as neither bearish or bullish, but unless we make a higher low in the next few months (boring scenario, green), it will dip lower(red). I think 18.5k is a decent bottom for the neutral/bullish view(green), and ~6-12k is a decent bottom for the bearish view(red).
What scenario do you think will play out? Personally, I just want to wait and see if we set a bottom here, but there's been a big gamma squeeze the past few days and I closed out most of my longs in the past few days out of discomfort. So, not necessarily short, but not long either. There's a lot of uncertainty here and it's always good to take profit while you are ahead.
I like using the "Percentage of stocks" type symbols, it's a nice litmus test for the market. Hopefully you will find them useful. Some are not links but these are all symbols under the INDEX: category
200 day
MMTH
S5TH
R2TH
NDTH
50 day
MMFI
S5FI
R2FI
NDFI
20 day
MMTW
S5TW
R2TW
NDTW
Take care and don't forget to hedge your bets!
-your fringe chartist
I don't think this pattern of lower lows in percentages of bullish stocks, and higher lows in bitcoin price, will last forever. If money printing stops and lending dries up, maybe bitcoin will go sideways for a while? Although institutional selling has happened, did the crowd sell yet? I don't know. If it did, maybe the green divergence pattern plays out, otherwise the red might come true?
Considering that we reached 17% of stocks bullish, that could seem like some sort of bottom, as was the case in 2015. But this entire chart is focused on a bull equities market, and so it is not reasonable to adjust our expectations towards past results. In my opinion, we should only use it as a reference of severity or volatility. Lately there is this pattern of lower lows in the Percentage of Stocks, and if the market is truly bearish, we should get a low that is lower than 17%, the current low, as seems to be implied in the chart in a megaphone-like pattern (grey line). Maybe it won't go to 6% like in 2020, but I have a hard time believing that. What was going to play out then, clearly has not yet played out and was delayed via bailouts. One might consider that because of the severe volatility 2020, it is not reasonable to expect a lower low in the percentage of stocks, which I think is a reasonable consideration, but it is not clear yet if the bearish momentum has finished playing out in terms of stock prices, especially large caps.
Bitcoin price wise, I think we could linger on a bit here as neither bearish or bullish, but unless we make a higher low in the next few months (boring scenario, green), it will dip lower(red). I think 18.5k is a decent bottom for the neutral/bullish view(green), and ~6-12k is a decent bottom for the bearish view(red).
What scenario do you think will play out? Personally, I just want to wait and see if we set a bottom here, but there's been a big gamma squeeze the past few days and I closed out most of my longs in the past few days out of discomfort. So, not necessarily short, but not long either. There's a lot of uncertainty here and it's always good to take profit while you are ahead.
I like using the "Percentage of stocks" type symbols, it's a nice litmus test for the market. Hopefully you will find them useful. Some are not links but these are all symbols under the INDEX: category
200 day
MMTH
S5TH
R2TH
NDTH
50 day
MMFI
S5FI
R2FI
NDFI
20 day
MMTW
S5TW
R2TW
NDTW
Take care and don't forget to hedge your bets!
-your fringe chartist