Previously market was looking at a drop from $9,990 of between $2,752.4 and $3,937. Looks like the 8 to 12 day bear market ended on the 8th day and that the drop won't be as great as the rise back up through the last daily fractal high by the 12th day. So I'm now thinking the reverse from $8,204.4 that would be $10,956 plus by end Wednesday ($8,204.4 + $2,752.4 = $10,956). Given market $8,825 high already today it's not impossible especially as were in Consensus 2018 week, and WOW what good news is coming out from there.
At the moment price appears to be caught in an upward channel. I expect price to break upward from that rather than down to new lows.
How I worked out these figures see my previous post "#Bitcoin next buy zone between $7,271.3 and $6,745.1"
Of course a lot can happen in the meantime to wreck my idea, but all looks clear for the time being.
REMEMBER NOT TO BE TAKEN AS ADVICE (ALL USUAL DISCLAIMERS APPLY)
At the moment price appears to be caught in an upward channel. I expect price to break upward from that rather than down to new lows.
How I worked out these figures see my previous post "#Bitcoin next buy zone between $7,271.3 and $6,745.1"
Of course a lot can happen in the meantime to wreck my idea, but all looks clear for the time being.
REMEMBER NOT TO BE TAKEN AS ADVICE (ALL USUAL DISCLAIMERS APPLY)
Comment:
My call long may have been wrong in this 8 to 12 day analysis of previous market action. MACD bars are in the minus area, and price has not broken higher though important Fib and trend lines as expected. Could head down for a new low, and global financial markets could also impact today.
Comment:
Had market already hit $9,000 that would have been great.
Comment:
I note a divergence in yesterdays bar. By that I mean whenever closing price and MACD bars close in different directions (marked with either green or red verticals in my MACD chart - have added a green to Mon. May14). If today market closes above or below yesterdays high or low then todays open $8,670.8 i.e. the day after open can be a useful stop loss trigger if the days following reverse and close above or beneath it. This stop loss idea is still a work in progress, but one of the ideas I'm keeping in mind while Bitcoin appears stuck in a holding position up from lows.
Comment:
As admitted to earlier my go long plan B may have been wrong in this 8-12 day analysis of previous market action. MACD bars in minus, and not broken higher though important Fib and trend lines as expected. Could head for new low. Global markets could impact. Had market already hit $9,000 then better.
It's hard not to be thinking plan A the short right now aided by Global markets.
It's hard not to be thinking plan A the short right now aided by Global markets.
Comment:
One more day to go and the market move is still a minimum $992.4 shorter than the stats predicted. Price still appears to be caught in an upward channel but now at the lower end.
Comment:
Today the percentage of Bitcoin traders net-long is now its highest since May 04 when Bitcoin traded near 9653.15 well one more day to go.
Comment:
Upward channel looks broken by bears now or under pressure.
Comment:
Just touched the lower Bollinger (set at 20, close,3) on 2hr chart very often a directional signal
Comment:
Today the percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since May 05 when Bitcoin traded near 9782.48.
Comment:
My 8 to 12 day bear/bull analysis (tweets May 11 & 14) of previous market action ends today Wed May 16. The analysis may not have delivered expected volatility but when this bear ends, next bull run may need repeat like two consequitive down fractals made between Mar 23 & Apr 1 which were followed by Apr 3 retrace and Apr 6 confirmed support.
Comment:
Copy of my most recent post
#Bitcoin going cautiously long, Consensus 2018, saw the low Y/N?
During, Consensus 2018, I'd say bulls won on points (market held up well).
Global markets could impact but there are loads of places to put stops in.
Better way of putting it "Bitcoin, Consensus 2018, bulls won on points (time spent above weekend low). Bitcoin now set to go higher, but not while rattled by current global markets and events.
#Bitcoin going cautiously long, Consensus 2018, saw the low Y/N?
During, Consensus 2018, I'd say bulls won on points (market held up well).
Global markets could impact but there are loads of places to put stops in.
Better way of putting it "Bitcoin, Consensus 2018, bulls won on points (time spent above weekend low). Bitcoin now set to go higher, but not while rattled by current global markets and events.
Comment:
In my updated post May 17 "#Bitcoin going cautiously long, Consensus 2018, saw the low Y/N?" I've included edited version of all my posts regarding the above signal like say a diary (that signal being the one derived from the turquoise/light blue box and stats which indicated an 8 to 12 day bear market ..........)