BTC: The Last Line of Defense (Still Some Short Opportunities)
After the selloff from Korea's UPbit Exchange FUD, combined with the further Mt. Gox whale dump, the Consensus 2018 event has given BTC a very small pop which hasn't seen much follow-through. We can see that Bitcoin initially bounced precisely on the white 50 fib/black 618 fib before getting rejected back down by the black 50 fib and prior structure resistance at 8900. Price has since been straddling the median line of the 11-month-old green channel (going back to June 2017).
Right now BTC is forming a bear flag with a higher probability of eventually breaking to the downside, so there are still short opportunities here. Many buyers will be stepping in at the 7800 level to play a strong bounce on the white 618 at the bottom of the June uptrend channel. After this, a decent probability of a further drop to the popular 786 fibs exists (both black and white 786 fibs are in the same price zone), which will definitely hold as strong support: this final 7400-7200 level will determine whether the cryptocurrency space will see confidence and activity for the rest of the year, or further selloff into lethargy and a more inactive, prolonged bear market.
This is due to the high probability that, should BTC break below the 786 fibs, price will head down to retest the 6k bottom, providing a very high probability of sending the crypto space into the aforementioned bear market scenario. Of course, market makers could push price down there and suddenly send BTC into a surprise bull market, but buyer followthrough on this would be more difficult to sustain along with market confidence due to the bearish engraving this would have already painted in the charts. We'll have to see what happens.
Right now BTC is forming a bear flag with a higher probability of eventually breaking to the downside, so there are still short opportunities here. Many buyers will be stepping in at the 7800 level to play a strong bounce on the white 618 at the bottom of the June uptrend channel. After this, a decent probability of a further drop to the popular 786 fibs exists (both black and white 786 fibs are in the same price zone), which will definitely hold as strong support: this final 7400-7200 level will determine whether the cryptocurrency space will see confidence and activity for the rest of the year, or further selloff into lethargy and a more inactive, prolonged bear market.
This is due to the high probability that, should BTC break below the 786 fibs, price will head down to retest the 6k bottom, providing a very high probability of sending the crypto space into the aforementioned bear market scenario. Of course, market makers could push price down there and suddenly send BTC into a surprise bull market, but buyer followthrough on this would be more difficult to sustain along with market confidence due to the bearish engraving this would have already painted in the charts. We'll have to see what happens.
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**Note: Stretch the chart out vertically using the price bar to see the annotations better. For some reason the RSI and MACD keep getting included in the publications and they shrink the chart.
Comment:
(Also references made to black fibs are referring to the blue fibs, apologize about any confusion).