This is a continuation of my last chart about BTC and the two trendlines.
To the point. BTC has formed a longer triangle, and is currently targeting the long term trend-line which it has tested three times before.
During the last two visits, BTC formed a thin wedge sub-wave in RSI. I have highlighted this pattern and its corresponding chart position A, B, C. After point A and B, BTC has fallen to retest the bottom of the wedge in the RSI. It looks like this is happening again with point C, and we have just had a rebound on the RSI on the bottom of the wedge.
I measured the losses made after point A and B then divided them to find a ratio to use to make a prediction or confirmation of the size of the drop at C, and therefore be able to estimate whether we would see 6800-7000 or start the next leg up.
Drop at Point A - 6180
Drop at point B - 2625
Ratio between Drop at point A and B = 2.3542
Drop at point C = Point C - (2625/2.3542)
Bottom at point C = 8650-1115 = 7535
Estimated Bottom using that method points to a 7535 bottom.
We have actually gone past this theoretical bottom, but not by much, and far short of 6800-7000. We have only dropped below to test the top of the next line of support. If this pattern holds then it would confirm 1) The momentum pattern confirming a bullish wedge. 2) The beginning of a valid 3rd wave that should take us above Wave 1 at 10k after a massive retracement.
It would not confirm a bull market.
If 7400-7500 does not hold then we will certainly visit 6800-7000, which is our last line of defense before a huge amount of loss. There isn't much buying support until we go way down - about as low as the ave price to mine btc.
Be careful, this is trading semantics and not trading advice. There is a lot at play.
We are currently forming a spining top on the 1D. That will please holders.
To the point. BTC has formed a longer triangle, and is currently targeting the long term trend-line which it has tested three times before.
During the last two visits, BTC formed a thin wedge sub-wave in RSI. I have highlighted this pattern and its corresponding chart position A, B, C. After point A and B, BTC has fallen to retest the bottom of the wedge in the RSI. It looks like this is happening again with point C, and we have just had a rebound on the RSI on the bottom of the wedge.
I measured the losses made after point A and B then divided them to find a ratio to use to make a prediction or confirmation of the size of the drop at C, and therefore be able to estimate whether we would see 6800-7000 or start the next leg up.
Drop at Point A - 6180
Drop at point B - 2625
Ratio between Drop at point A and B = 2.3542
Drop at point C = Point C - (2625/2.3542)
Bottom at point C = 8650-1115 = 7535
Estimated Bottom using that method points to a 7535 bottom.
We have actually gone past this theoretical bottom, but not by much, and far short of 6800-7000. We have only dropped below to test the top of the next line of support. If this pattern holds then it would confirm 1) The momentum pattern confirming a bullish wedge. 2) The beginning of a valid 3rd wave that should take us above Wave 1 at 10k after a massive retracement.
It would not confirm a bull market.
If 7400-7500 does not hold then we will certainly visit 6800-7000, which is our last line of defense before a huge amount of loss. There isn't much buying support until we go way down - about as low as the ave price to mine btc.
Be careful, this is trading semantics and not trading advice. There is a lot at play.
We are currently forming a spining top on the 1D. That will please holders.
Comment:
Ichi Cloud 1W which has often been such a great support and guider of uptrends would guide us up to the 12K+ target where it tops out.
Impulsive and corrective wave 5/3 pattern possibility
Would put wave 3 above $12000 if follows
This pattern isn't yet proven but is supported by the RSI theory. It would also validate double bottom inverse head and shoulders.