BTC: Today's 60k double-tap: Trendline and Fibonacci structure
A different look at today's double-tap on 60k.
Taking the last double-tap outside the 6-month channel as a base (09-11 December: see linked chart), I was interested to see how Fibonacci levels might align to major structure and the rough projection from the previous chart of the next higher high.
This may be a flawed approach, but a few observations:
1) At the macro, we have two bull flags. The January correction and the February correction. The January bull flag played out in textbook fashion. The measured move from the breakout of the channel matched the pole, if traced to the 09-11 December double tap.
2) The February bull flag failed. The measured move would have yielded 72.8k, above the 0.786 Fibonacci level. Instead, BTC got stuck at 62k and ranged and retested this level a dozen times in the subsequent month, breaking through 14 April, and returning today for a double-tap confirmation.
3) It's interesting that BTC only failed in printing the measured move when it reached the 0.618 Fibonacci level — in this instance, a golden pocket of supply.
4) Today's double-tap rests on a trendline that goes back through all previous lows to the final micro bull flag of 8 February. The day TSLA announced its BTC holdings.
5) Meanwhile, it broke a trendline that goes back to the final micro bull flag from the 09-11 December double-tap.
6) The 0.618 rests on 58.5k. Is BTC confirming 60k, or it is confirming the 0.618 Fibonacci level?
7) In reaching 65k 14 April, BTC breached the 0.702 Fibonacci level. We often see, following such an event, a fallback to the midpoint of the previous Fibonacci level. There is a nexus of trendlines that form through the pennant triangle BTC printed following the failure to meet the measured move of the February bull flag. Could BTC revisit 55.3k?
Feel free to leave a comment.
Taking the last double-tap outside the 6-month channel as a base (09-11 December: see linked chart), I was interested to see how Fibonacci levels might align to major structure and the rough projection from the previous chart of the next higher high.
This may be a flawed approach, but a few observations:
1) At the macro, we have two bull flags. The January correction and the February correction. The January bull flag played out in textbook fashion. The measured move from the breakout of the channel matched the pole, if traced to the 09-11 December double tap.
2) The February bull flag failed. The measured move would have yielded 72.8k, above the 0.786 Fibonacci level. Instead, BTC got stuck at 62k and ranged and retested this level a dozen times in the subsequent month, breaking through 14 April, and returning today for a double-tap confirmation.
3) It's interesting that BTC only failed in printing the measured move when it reached the 0.618 Fibonacci level — in this instance, a golden pocket of supply.
4) Today's double-tap rests on a trendline that goes back through all previous lows to the final micro bull flag of 8 February. The day TSLA announced its BTC holdings.
5) Meanwhile, it broke a trendline that goes back to the final micro bull flag from the 09-11 December double-tap.
6) The 0.618 rests on 58.5k. Is BTC confirming 60k, or it is confirming the 0.618 Fibonacci level?
7) In reaching 65k 14 April, BTC breached the 0.702 Fibonacci level. We often see, following such an event, a fallback to the midpoint of the previous Fibonacci level. There is a nexus of trendlines that form through the pennant triangle BTC printed following the failure to meet the measured move of the February bull flag. Could BTC revisit 55.3k?
Feel free to leave a comment.
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