Check this out! Hits my line exactly! Long BTC.

Traders,

This is exactly why I love technical analysis so much! Check out what BTC just did. It hit my multi-year support/resistance trendline from 2019 with surgical precision. I mean ...to the penny (almost). And this just goes to show that when you put in the time and study the charts, you may find indications that no other analyst talks about. This is one such indicator. I don't know of anyone else that has mentioned this line. If they do, you should be listening to them.

That said, I expect at least a bounce here. And I am going to play that bounce with a tight stop. I'm long BTC with an entry of just over 61k and a final target of 79-80k. Tight stop of 59,850 which turns the RRR into an 8-to1 ratio (keep in mind, selling may continue).

Let's go!!!
Stew

Comment:

Last night you know that I went long BTC and ARB. The thought process here was that we had come down to that black rising multi-year s/r tl and would bounce. Thus far, I am a little underwhelmed with the bounce. We haven’t closed the daily yet, but we have had half a day and have not even touched 64.8k yet. This shows weakness and that there may be more selling to come. Until we produce a daily higher high, we can expect this downtrend to continue, possibly even breaking back below our strong support. If that occurs with confirmation, you can know that my bias will immediately change.

Based on the underwhelming bounce from BTC thus far, I sold 2/3 of my BTC and left the stop tight. If I hit the stop, I will still profit from this trade.

With ARB, which was greatly oversold at the time of purchase, I was expecting much more of a bounce. We are not getting that. I sold half and raised my stop to break even on that trade so that I remain in the profit there as well.

Trade closed manually:

Traders,

My goal was to play the bounce off of that multi-year black ascending trendline I have drawn. Mission accomplished. I’ll take my 8% profit until Bitcoin lets us know what it’s going to do. A break below that black tl with confirmation and I am a bear for a bit. Right now, we’re on the bullish side of the tl, but the bulls haven’t confirmed any change of direction yet. Our daily candle today needs to close above 69k. If it does, I’ll look to re-enter long. Obviously, because I sold, you can see that I am betting it won’t. And you’d be right. My feeling at this moment is that we’ll drop back down to one of the supports below us sometime here in the next few days, at which point, I may look to re-enter long again with a tight stop. If we dropped below my trendline, I’ll look to go short with a tight stop. That’s where I am with Bitcoin rn: long with another drop to supports or a close above 69k, and short if we break below my black trendline. Hope that makes sense.

Best,
Stew