Hi traders hope you are well,
Bitcoin broke the 6500 level, the level I thought would cause a trend reversal. Instead real FOMO and greed kicked in and a lot of money is flowing in the crypto market! The breach of the psychological level 6000 has turned many in bulls and the herd is following. A lot of investors out there are thinking now we are in a bull market. But we are not. In fact we are in a mini bubble which will explode any time soon.
A bull market starts at the bottom which was tested multiple times (at least 2 times) then slowly but steady increase in price eventually takes off in waves with healthy corrections. What is happening now is that the "temporary" bottom at 3050 was tested only once, with slow growth and after breaching some resistance levels a very steep rise of price in a very short term. This look more like a corrective wave. However I never guessed that it would go that high.
Even if my view is correct and will play out in mid term, the hardest thing is always to guess the top and time your trades! My short poitions are closed with a huge loss and some other dude is running away now with my bitcoins. But I know that the other dude, when he becomes a bear, out of fear will sell the same bitcoins at a very low price in the near future! :)
Now about future trades. Bitcoin is struggling at the 7400-7500 price. Second last previous top in the bear market of 2018. I keep it simple. Next resistance levels are 8500, 10000 and 11700. See chart. I am not going long here for a few percentages, i expect a price drop starting from today or tommorow to 6800 - 6250 zone. This will be a bear trap however, things will get bullish again and 10000 is a realistic target of the corrective wave.
A good indicator to guess the top are the shorts and long charts. Shorts were high and longs very low before the breakout of 5800 - 6000 zone. I checked and kept an eye on it and something in me said this wasn t normal and could cause a further uptrend. Which happened but still chose the wrong side because of a bunch of other indicators. When we are the top of this trend then I expect to see very high numbers of long positions ready to be liquidated. Volume will be also a good indicator. At the top volume is very low. Greed index is at 71, can still go up to 80 - 90. From there a huge and real correction will start. The end of the mini bubble in the bubble.
Lets see if my view will be correct.
Bitcoin broke the 6500 level, the level I thought would cause a trend reversal. Instead real FOMO and greed kicked in and a lot of money is flowing in the crypto market! The breach of the psychological level 6000 has turned many in bulls and the herd is following. A lot of investors out there are thinking now we are in a bull market. But we are not. In fact we are in a mini bubble which will explode any time soon.
A bull market starts at the bottom which was tested multiple times (at least 2 times) then slowly but steady increase in price eventually takes off in waves with healthy corrections. What is happening now is that the "temporary" bottom at 3050 was tested only once, with slow growth and after breaching some resistance levels a very steep rise of price in a very short term. This look more like a corrective wave. However I never guessed that it would go that high.
Even if my view is correct and will play out in mid term, the hardest thing is always to guess the top and time your trades! My short poitions are closed with a huge loss and some other dude is running away now with my bitcoins. But I know that the other dude, when he becomes a bear, out of fear will sell the same bitcoins at a very low price in the near future! :)
Now about future trades. Bitcoin is struggling at the 7400-7500 price. Second last previous top in the bear market of 2018. I keep it simple. Next resistance levels are 8500, 10000 and 11700. See chart. I am not going long here for a few percentages, i expect a price drop starting from today or tommorow to 6800 - 6250 zone. This will be a bear trap however, things will get bullish again and 10000 is a realistic target of the corrective wave.
A good indicator to guess the top are the shorts and long charts. Shorts were high and longs very low before the breakout of 5800 - 6000 zone. I checked and kept an eye on it and something in me said this wasn t normal and could cause a further uptrend. Which happened but still chose the wrong side because of a bunch of other indicators. When we are the top of this trend then I expect to see very high numbers of long positions ready to be liquidated. Volume will be also a good indicator. At the top volume is very low. Greed index is at 71, can still go up to 80 - 90. From there a huge and real correction will start. The end of the mini bubble in the bubble.
Lets see if my view will be correct.
